Is Andrew McCutchen Striking Out More Often or Does It Just Seem That Way?

Andrew McCutchen seems to be striking out a lot this season. Do the stats back up our assumptions?

Every time you turn around it seems like Andrew McCutchen is striking out.  Yes, he does hit home runs and has 20 RBIs on the year, but he has also struck out 44 times against only 20 walks.

This strikeout to base-on-balls ratio is much higher than in any season of McCutchen’s career.  First, we will delve into this season’s performance so far and compare it to historical rates.  Then, we will examine why his strikeout rate is higher and speculate as to what we can expect for the rest of the season.

From the time McCutchen broke into the league in 2009 through the end of 2015, he has struck out in 17.5 percent of his plate appearances.  His worst season in this regard was last year at 19.7 percent.  So far in 2016, he is striking out in a remarkable 23 percent of his plate appearances.  The last couple of seasons, McCutchen has been a slow starter, so perhaps this is just an artifact of his early season doldrums.  However, a closer examination of his April / May stats from past years show strikeout rates that range from 12.9 to 19.7.

This is not as simple as saying “McCutchen always strikes out a lot at the start of the season.”

If he continues striking out in 23 percent  of his plate appearances, he will end the year at 154 Ks (assuming 670 plate appearances).  That would easily be his worst season for strikeouts, eclipsing last season’s previous high of 133.  To put this in perspective, the much-maligned Pedro Alvarez “only” struck out 131 times last season (although it was in only 491 plate appearances).

No matter how you slice it, Andrew McCutchen is striking out at an unprecedented level.

[pullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”#000000″ class=”” size=””]What is really different in 2016 is his 11.6 percent whiff rate on fastballs.  He’s never had a season higher than 8.8 percent in this category. [/pullquote]

The ten million dollar question is: Why is this happening?  Sometimes, players will claim to be trading average for power.  They swing harder at more pitches, hoping it will result in more home runs and a higher slugging percentage at the expense of a lower batting average and more strikeouts.  This does sound a lot like the centerfielder so far in 2016.  He already has eight home runs which puts him on pace for 30 for the season.  That’s a solid number but not abnormally high for Andrew McCutchen.  His 2016 slugging percentage of .460 is actually lower than his career average of .495.  So the argument that he is trading average for power doesn’t hold much water.

More likely, his strikeout troubles are related to swing and miss rates on pitches in the strike zone.  He’s always been susceptible to a breaking pitch away from a right-handed pitcher.  However, his swing and miss rates at breaking balls and off speed pitches are similar to his career averages.  What is really different in 2016 is his 11.6 percent whiff rate on fastballs.  He’s never had a season higher than 8.8 percent in this category.  He is missing pitches that he normally hits hard.  If this whiff percentage holds up for the entire season, it will equate to an incredible 75 fastballs that he would have hit last year but that he will swing at and miss this year.  All numbers aside, this is the main reason why Cutch’s hitting performance feels so different this year.

Even with the increased strikeouts, McCutchen’s current line of .253/.337/.460 is respectable.  But #22 is likely shooting for much higher than “respectable.”  There is some reason to be hopeful that hishitting performance will improve.  In the Colorado series, he only swung at and missed one fastball over the plate.  In the future, he will probably contribute by walking more.  He is currently striking out more than twice as much as he walks and this is not likely to continue.  Last season, McCutchen started to get hot in mid-May and, not coincidentally, so did the Pirates.

Andrew McCutchen is a fierce competitor and it’s a good bet that he will fix whatever is causing him to swing through those fastballs over the plate.

Image Credit – Daniel Decker Photography

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