The reason for the Sox’ hitting slump is hard to fathom. How could a team that batted .277 in ’13 fall to .241? How could their OBP go from .349 to .318? How could their slugging percentage drop 78 points? How could their average with men in scoring position be 50 points lower? It goes on and on.
One factor not often mentioned on Boston sports pages is the combination of age and the rigors of the 2013 campaign. This theory has been expressed in USA Today and was echoed last week by Pedro Martinez on a local talk show.
Baseball Almanac lists the Sox in Most Games by Position for last season. In all three areas- hitters, starting pitchers and relievers- the average age of those still with the team was close to 31- a time when many (though certainly not all) performers experience a dropoff. The only infielder under 30 was Will Middlebrooks. Two hurlers- Ryan Dempster and John Lackey- were 35 or older (Jake Peavy was not included). The bullpen featured Craig Breslow (33) and Koji Uehara (38).
Other issues come into play. Shane Victorino – injury-prone since 2012- has played little in 2014 and his return is uncertain. Dempster mentioned fatigue as one of the factors in his retirement. Clay Buchholz may have come back too soon from shoulder problems and labored when he returned. Dustin Pedroia played most of the year with a broken hand.
Unlike 04 and 07, when the Sox experienced easy ALDS and World Series wins with much more difficult ALCS’s, 13 was tough all the way. Against Tampa Bay, only game 1 was a breeze- the final two were a 5-4 defeat (walkoff homer off Uehara) and a tough 3-1 victory. The Tiger series featured four one-run games including a great comeback in game 2 and a grueling 4-3 victory in game 5. They trailed in game 6 before Victorino’s dramatic grand slam. Game 1 of the World Series was a runaway victory, but the next four contests were decided by 2 runs or less.
This theory, of course, does not explain Jackie Bradley Jr’s hitting woes, Xander Bogearts’ batting slump, or Grady Sizemore’s failure. But when five men in the lineup last Sunday night who were regulars last year were hitting a combined .253, you’ve got to wonder.
The three home losses to the Cubs have pretty much convinced me there will be no playoff games at Fenway this year. But this is one more reason the Sox should use young players as much as possible the rest of the way. Next week I will explore how the pitching staff figures into this.
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