Is Hee Sop Choi the next Papi?

By Andrew Lipsett
January 22nd, 2003: The Red Sox picked up David Ortiz on waivers, from the Minnesota Twins. Ortiz was just coming off his age 26 season, never having gotten a real starting chance at the MLB level. His numbers were promising – he hit .272/.339/.500 in just over 400 AB’s in 2002, but showed a large platoon split. The Twins didn’t like his defense, especially given that their incumbent was Doug Mientkiewicz; they also didn’t like his strikeout totals, which were prodigious. The Sox picked him up without a clear role; with 4 options for the two corner spots and DH, someone was going to be left out in the cold. And, indeed, he sat on the bench for the first month of the season, waiting for his chance. That chance came in late May, when Shea Hillenbrand was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks; with Ortiz now firmly in the DH spot, he proceeded to become one of the most feared hitters in the league.
Will that happen for Hee Sop Choi? Almost certainly not; it’s impossible to predict that kind of leap for anyone. But it’s also impossible to ignore the similarities between the two players, heading into their 27th year seasons: Choi, in 320 AB’s last year, hit .253/.336/.453. His OPS+ in 2005 – 110 – is not far from Ortiz’s 2002 total of 122. They’re both big 1B’s with plus power and strikeout swings; both have LH splits (though Choi’s are not as severe as Ortiz’s were at that age). Neither has/had been given a real shot at a starting gig. And, oh yeah, PECOTA’s nearest comp for Choi’s 2006? David Ortiz, 2003.
At the moment, Hee Sop Choi will be getting his starting role in Pawtucket, waiting for an opening. One may easily come; word is that the Sox are doubtful of Mike Lowell, and may shift Youk back to 3B, which would open 1st for Choi. In addition, JT Snow is likely fungible; Choi would be next in line for a backup 1B spot. Just like with Ortiz in 03, we’re not sure where Choi’s AB’s will come from. But if he gets a shot, he could surprise many with his development.
Will he become the next David Ortiz? Probably not. But if Choi were to improve by even a fifth of the amount Ortiz did in 2003, he’d be a very valuable addition; the Sox FO saw all of this information when claiming him, and you should have no doubt that the words ‘Big Papi’ were spoken in connection. This is a classic Theo move: low-risk, incredibly high upside. And if it works like it did in 2003, it will be enough to give the Sox the best 3-4-5 in the game.