Is It Time To Extend Danny Salazar?

Danny Salazar is coming off his first full season as a professional and it was a good one. The young fire-balling phenom we all believed would lead us to playoff appearances in 2014 and beyond finally showed the promise that captivated us during his short 2013 debut season. Going into 2016, like the Indians as a whole, Salazar will begin the season with fairly lofty expectations. It seems like Salazar has been a breakout candidate for the past few off-seasons and after his impressive 2015 season, expect to hear similar comments this winter.

Salazar’s high ceiling coupled with his youth make him a prime candidate for a possible contract extension this off-season. With the Indians long history of wrapping up young players to team-friendly deals, it’s quite possible this is one of the primary focuses of Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff’s first off-season as leaders of the Tribe’s front office. The question then becomes, should the Indians lock up Salazar to a long-term deal? If so, what might that deal look like?

During the Glory Days of the 90’s, the Indians perfected the art of buying out the arbitration years of young talented players and signing them to team-friendly contracts. This has become a blueprint for teams across the league, especially for small to mid-market teams like the Cleveland Indians. This practice has the chance for a big payoff, but can also lead to disastrous results. Buying out arbitration years avoids the possibility that a player will make a big leap in production and become a major financial burden to the team. A perfect example of this is Michael Brantley.

Heading into 2014, Brantley appeared to be destined for a career of very solid, but not spectacular production. The Indians signed him to a 4 year $25 million deal that now looks like a stroke of pure genius on the part of the Indians’ front office. As we all know, Brantley had an MVP-caliber season that would have netted him much more in arbitration than the $1.5 million the club had to pay him in 2014.

The Indians are also aware of the downside of such deals. In 2007 the Indians signed Jake Westbrook to a 3-year $33 million extension that was set to begin in 2008. Westbrook made just 5 starts in 2008 before requiring reconstructive elbow surgery that would sideline him till 2010, by then the Indians were rebuilding and had little need for a costly veteran pitcher. Similarly, the Tribe inked Travis Hafner to a 4-year extension through the 2012 season that would pay Hafner $57 million. Injuries made this deal a complete waste as Hafner averaged just 94 games player over the life of the contract. And of course everyone is familiar with the physical breakdown of Grady Sizemore three years into a 6 year extension that saw him have more surgeries than games played, or so it seemed.

Taking into account the pros and cons of a possible Salazar extension, should the Indians seriously entertain the idea this offseason? In my opinion, yes.

I base my opinion in large part on a few key factors. First, Danny Salazar is an immensely talented pitcher who may not have even scratched the surface of his full potential. Should the Indians reach an agreement now, they could save themselves millions if Salazar has a breakout year which we are all aware is quite possible. Second, Salazar is already one of the better pitchers in the American League and as the New York Mets just proved, young talented pitching can take you all the way to the World Series. To illustrate just how good Salazar is and why his play warrants a big time pay raise, consider the following:

• His 9.49 K/9 was the 5th highest rate in the American League
• His 2.58 BB/9 was 19th lowest in the AL
• His 3.45 ERA was 12th best in the AL
• His 3.62 FIP was 12th in the AL
• His 3.48 xFIP (a number that takes into account his performance minus his HR rate) was 8th best in the AL
• His 3.1 fWAR was the 10th highest among pitchers in the AL

Looking at all of these numbers we get a better sense of just how good Salazar was this season, and at age 25, he’s a good bet to only get better.

If we are trying to get a sense of what an extension of Salazar would look like, a good comparison is former Indians’ prospect, now Tampa Bay Rays’ ace, Chris Archer. Through their first 3 professional seasons, their careers have played out very similarly. Archer made his big league debut in the middle of the 2012 campaign at the age of 23, made 23 starts the following year at the age of 24, and pitched a full season of 32 starts at the age of 25. Similarly, Salazar also made his big league debut mid-season in 2013 at the age of 23, made 20 starts the following season, and pitched a full season of 30 starts at the age of 25. However, the number of starts is not the only thing they have in common, through similar points in their careers, they’ve had comparable success.

As you can see, Salazar was better in his first season than Archer, while they had similar second seasons though they went about it differently, and their third seasons were very similar in nearly every major category.

Going into Archer’s 3rd season he signed a 6 year $25.5 million extension. If the Indians were to sign Salazar to an extension this off-season, these numbers are comparable to what Salazar and the Tribe could agree to. I would guess a 5 year deal with 1 or 2 option years would make sense for the Tribe, ranging anywhere from $20-25 million. To me, as a very pro-Danny Salazar fan, this is a no-brainer. However, if I am to be a little more objective, I wouldn’t be opposed to the Indians making Salazar prove he can duplicate his 2015 performance next season before entertaining contract extension negotiations. As the Indians know all too well, extensions can be a huge gamble. There is no telling what will happen to a player next season, even if he has shown to be healthy as an ox so far in his career.