Is Memphis a Serious Playoff Contender?

Too much must happen for Memphis to crash the four-team College Football Playoff — only in its second year as the new, better way of crowning a national champion. Even with a win over a team that beat Alabama (only a handful of programs can lay claim to that feat since Saban’s run in Tuscaloosa) and 2015 looking more and more like the upside down 2007 season that gave us a two-loss BCS champion, gaining support from the playoff committee to overtake a Power Five conference champ sounds nearly impossible.

But SI.com’s Colin Becht seems to believe Memphis’ shot at the playoff isn’t that far-fetched, given how this season is playing out.

Here is an excerpt from Becht’s “Weekly Takeaways” column on SI.com where he paints the proverbial playoff picture for the Memphis Tigers:

It’d take a lot going right to happen, but Memphis gives the Group of Five a playoff shot

The Tigers earned their first victory over a ranked opponent since 1996 when they toppled No. 13 Ole Miss on Saturday 37–24. The win positions Justin Fuente’s squad to make a run at an undefeated season, one that, if the right pieces fall perfectly into place, could send Memphis to the playoff.

Paxton Lynch gives the Tigers an elite option under center, a feature sorely lacking from many of the SEC’s playoff hopefuls. Lynch powered Memphis’s offense Saturday with 384 yards on 39 of 53 passing with three touchdowns and one interception. The Tigers’ defense took a beating in a 44–41 win over Bowling Green and 53–46 victory over Cincinnati, but it did its part Saturday to pull the upset. Ole Miss converted just 4 of 13 third-down tries and failed on its two fourth-down tries. The Rebels got almost nothing on the ground, gaining just 40 yards on 24 carries.

Now that Memphis has passed its toughest test, there’s no reason the Tigers aren’t capable of running the table. So the question turns to where such a run would leave Memphis. The American Athletic Conference is clearly the strongest Group of Five league this year, so conference play will offer the Tigers some chances to impress the playoff committee, particularly if they can go on the road and beat Houston and Temple, both currently undefeated, in consecutive weeks in November. Houston is currently No. 24 in the AP poll, while Temple is just outside the top 25, so when combined with the Ole Miss victory, a 12–0 Memphis would likely have a better résumé than a 12–0 Iowa.

Still the Tigers don’t control their own playoff fate. Even if they go unbeaten they’ll need some help. Houston, Temple and Navy continuing their hot starts is critical to the reputation of the American. More importantly, Memphis needs Ole Miss to go unbeaten for the rest of the season. The Rebels still have just one conference loss and hold the tiebreaker over Alabama after beating the Tide in Bryant-Denny Stadium. If Ole Miss wins out, it’ll win the SEC West. If it wins the conference championship game, it’ll likely be the SEC’s best shot at a playoff berth. Could the committee really take a two-loss power conference team over an unbeaten Group of Five team that beat it head-to-head?

No, but the committee could instead pass over both for teams from the other Power Five conferences. Still, with the flaws nearly every team has shown this season, it’s hard to imagine any Power Five team finishing the year unbeaten, and it’s possible fewer than four could finish with one loss. That’s the type of widespread chaos that could send Memphis to the playoff.