Make no mistake about it, the Twins are bad, and save for a blip on the radar a year ago, they have been for a decade straight. There are some bright spots, of course, including the burgeoning offense, and a glut of players that can play the corner infield and hit for power. The future of the outfield is generally held to be a beacon of hope as well.
After emerging on the scene with a strong first impression, Eddie Rosario seemed to quickly establish himself as an outfielder of the future. Then, his flaws became more apparent, especially at the plate, where he swung at nearly everything. Still, he was young, and more capable than Danny Santana, who was another hot starting, strikeout prone prospect with multiple position availability.
At the beginning of 2016, however, there was no more glaring regression than the one seen with Rosario. Santana’s step back in 2015 was attributable to a return to the mean after an outrageous BABIP in his rookie season. Rosario at the beginning of 2016 was simply a bad baseball player.
It seemed like he was unwilling to put forth effort on defense, and his power stroke was not as prolific as pitchers figured out that the way to get Rosario to swing was to simply get it in his Zip code. When he came back to the majors, his bat was much improved, if not his eye, and he looked like he wanted to play on defense again. This mercurial pattern is undoubtedly a concern.
Even when Rosario is at his best, his bat is subpar, and his defense isn’t good enough that he can take plays off. He is an excellent baserunner, which will always earn him a spot on an MLB roster, but there is also room for improvement, either on offense or defense. Rosario is entering his third year in the league, and hasn’t shown enough improvement (he is struggling in Winter League action as well) for the Twins to commit a starting role to him yet.
Rosario is obviously a candidate to be upgraded, but Max Kepler’s explosion doesn’t really jive with his minor league numbers either. He was never a power hitter, reaching double digits only once. His solid average of his AA year was aided by a .359 BABIP. The .261 he had with the Twins in 2016 falls more directly in line with his history. There isn’t a discouraging MLB track record with Kepler, and he has steadily gotten better at every level. He also remains 2 years younger than Rosario, which is the primary reason Kepler will be given every opportunity to stick in right field, even with a regression. Even with his solid debut, however, Kepler is far from a can’t miss prospect.
Brandon Warne has been espousing the idea of a player like Trayce Thompson as part of a return for Brian Dozier from the Dodgers, which would be a new element to the pitching-centric ideas that many pundits have been throwing out there. Warne might be on to something, as there is plenty of space available in the outfield.
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