Is There Hope in the Second Half Surge?

Since Terry Francona took over the helm in 2013, the Indians have had an odd tendency to play better after the All-Star break than before. It is this kind of late season magic that the Indians are depending on this season to return to the postseason. Below are the Indians records in each half over the past three seasons including their Pythagorean winning percent (their expected winning percent derived from runs scored and allowed).

In each 2013 and 2014, the Indians had at least a 5% increase in winning percent during the second half, although the first half numbers have decreased each season. The team has been almost identical as far as roster make up is concerned over that time, with the biggest changes in personnel occurring this season when Francisco Lindor and Giovanny Urshela came up within a week and completely changed half the infield.

Before giving Francona all the credit for the second half improvements, or blaming (crediting) them to luck, let’s take a look into some in season personnel changes. Beginning in 2013, the biggest differences between the first half and second were in the pitching staff. In addition to Ubaldo Jimenez‘s second half improvement, the rotation was made better with the additions of Danny Salazar (August 7th) from AAA along with Zach McAllister (July 23rd) and Corey Kluber (September 7th) back from DL stints due to finger strains. In addition, an abused bullpen benefited from September call-ups (particularly Vinnie Pestano, Clay Rapada and C.C. Lee) and a late trade for Marc Rzepczynski.

The following season it was actually the removal from the rotation of McAllister and Salazar that lifted the Tribe. They were replaced by T.J. House (May 17th initially, but no permanently until August 2nd) and Trevor Bauer (May 20th). Again there was significant bullpen help as well with Kyle Crockett making his MLB debut (initially on May 16th, up for good after June 12th) quickly after being drafted.

It is interesting that in both seasons, the primary roster changes from one half to another were almost all done to improve upon a struggling pitching staff, as this year the opposite is the problem. The only roster moves of note among hitters were at the end of 2014 when Nick Swisher (on the DL, August 10th) and Asdrubal Cabrera (traded to Washington, July 31st) were gone for the year, replaced essentially by Zach Walters and Jose Ramirez.

While WAR isn’t a direct correlation to actual wins, there is a significant amount that can be accounted for in the moves above. See below (the player on top of each pair was replaced by the one below):

Considering only these limited players, there was about a five win difference between the first and second half of each season and removing those, there is a much less significant difference between their first and second half performance. Taking five wins away from 2013 would have left them with a winning percent of .537, just higher than the first half of .528 and taking them away from 2014 would have given them a lower winning percent of .485 compared to their .500 first half.

The chart above is a more visual version of the first, showing the Indians winning percentage after each game of the 2013, 2014 and 2015 seasons (as of 7/19/15). The straight lines are best fit lines for each year and while there is some increase in both 2013 and 2014, it isn’t as big as it may seem. Both times, the teams actually started improving much earlier, around game 20 in 2013 and game 30 in 2014. This year, the best fit line is off the charts due to a couple of factors. First, the Indians were absolutely dreadful the first two months of the season and have been much more mediocre since. Secondly, it is extrapolating half a season’s improvements over the full year, leading to values that are physically impossible at this point.

There is no question, however, that the Indians are playing better now than they were and that they have done so without any major roster moves. It only took one start to move McAllister into the bullpen, where he has been magnificent and, while it took a little longer, the fifth man in the rotation is now settled as well with Cody Anderson. In addition, there are a few other positive signs as well.

Kevin wrote yesterday about how Carlos Santana has always been a second half hitter and that doesn’t seem to be changing right now. Since hitting a season low average mark of .208 on July 5th, he has raised that to .226 on July 18th by hitting .400 over the span with five extra base hits, six RBI, five walks, three steals and just three strike outs. If he continues to bat like this, it would be as big of a difference as first half Ubaldo compared to second half Ubaldo in 2013 (for a WAR comparison, Santana has been worth 0.6 this year, but was worth 3.0 in 2014 despite a similar first half).

In addition, Santana and Brandon Moss have been among the 20 least lucky hitters according to BABIP and, while their low speed and fly ball tendencies would leave them expected to hit less than the league average .300, they won’t end the season hitting as low as .260.

Another positive to look forward to is the growth of the rookies. Francisco Lindor and Giovanny Urshela were brought up early enough to actually make a difference on this team defensively (unlike last season when Santana was moved to first base full time too late) and to get used to Major League pitching before the season ends. With over 100 plate appearances under each of their belts, they have made definite improvements of late, particularly Lindor. The new Indians shortstop seems to hit the ball hard in every at bat and it shouldn’t take long for these to start dropping. According to fangraphs.com he has already been worth more offensively than regulars Yan Gomes and Michael Bourn while being worth 2.1 more runs than the average short stop defensively (equating to 14 over the course of a full season).

Even though the Indians were in last place in the Central as late as 7/17, they have just as much of a chance of fighting back as they did in each of the last two seasons. This is not to say they will, simply that they are a better team than their results would show. However, even their best may not be enough for a play-off spot. The Royals, at 11.5 games ahead of Cleveland and six games in front of second place Minnesota, have such a stranglehold on the division that even Detroit (10.5 games back) have been rumored to be sellers at the deadline. This leaves just the Wild Card for the Indians to attempt and, even though there are two, they would have to win at least 41 of their final 71 games to even think about being close.

A 43-31 second half would be within reason compared to the last two seasons (.581), but certainly can’t be expected without a little more offensive production. Assuming turn arounds by Gomes, Santana and Moss or the addition of an All-Star caliber center fielder, an improvement of this magnitude could be imagined. Even so, it’s not like the 2013 squad went from sub-.500 to their .612 second half. An improvement of 5.5% like both previous seasons would actually lead to an expected win total of just 39 for the second half (.528 W%), good enough for just 81 wins and no where near a Wild Card.

In the end, it is possible the Indians will improve like previous seasons, even likely, but even with this improvement it will be hard to become much more than a .500 team. While the play-offs are not completely out of the question, most last place teams are looking to sell at this point rather than to buy and the Indians may be better served joining them, looking more to 2016 than this October.

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