Over the last few years, the Indians have slowly been building a very solid farm system stocked with MLB-caliber talent at multiple positions. One of the Indians deepest positions is the outfield, which has 5-6 potential major league players that could help the Indians or be used as a valuable trade chip. One of the most talented of these players is the Indians first round draft pick in the 2012 Amateur Draft, Tyler Naquin. While Naquin is not considered one of the best outfield prospects in all of baseball like his counterparts Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier, he is slowly establishing himself as a complete player and is putting himself in line to quite possibly be the Indians’ starting center fielder come opening day 2016.
Coming out of Texas A&M, Naquin was seen as a defense first player with a strong throwing arm and great range. Many scouts viewed him as a line drive hitter who would not be likely to develop much power. Unless he developed a better bat, he would likely spend most of his career as a 4th outfielder, not exactly the type of projection you would hope to hear from someone you just spent a first round pick on.
Naquin’s first few seasons saw decent results but nothing spectacular. He seemed to match his projection as a plus defender with a solid bat, but one that didn’t wow you by any means. That changed in 2014 during his second stint in AA Akron. That season Naquin surprised everyone by hitting the cover off the ball, showing signs of the potential we were all told he possessed, but to this point had not seen. Through 76 games he slashed .313/.371/.424 with 4 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and 122 wRC+. Unfortunately this promising season was cut short by a broken hand that couldn’t have come at a worse time for Naquin, who finally appeared to be turning the corner as a hitter.
The hand injury delayed his start to the 2015 season, but when he returned to action with the AA Akron RubberDucks, he picked up right where he left off, raking his way through inferior Eastern League pitchers. Through 34 games Naquin posted a .348/.419/.468 slash line with a 158 wRC+, in that time it became clear that Naquin was too good for AA and a promotion was necessary.
Back in 2013, Naquin was playing well in High-A ball and towards the end of the year he was promoted to AA Akron. In just under a month’s worth of games, Naquin appeared over matched and still in need of some work, the typical diagnosis for a 2nd year professional ballplayer. This has not been the case so far in Naquin’s time in AAA Columbus. Through 49 games Naquin has continued to play stellar baseball from both an offensive and defensive standpoint. He has posted a solid .265/.355/.432 slash line, exhibiting good base running with 6 steals and decent power with 6 home runs. And now, with September approaching, it appears Naquin could be in line for a promotion to the big league ball club once the rosters expand. In fact, rumor has it that promotion may come any day now, if it does, Indians fans should know what they are getting with Naquin.
The most refined element of Naquin’s game in his defense. He possesses an elite arm that will allow him to play center or right field. To go along with his strong arm, he runs very well. Although he doesn’t possess elite speed like Billy Hamilton or Kenny Lofton in his prime, he runs well enough that he shouldn’t have any problem sticking in center field for the foreseeable future. His above-average speed makes him a plus base runner as well. Steals haven’t played a major part in his game thus far, the most he’s ever had in a season is 14, a feat he accomplished twice, once last year in just 76 games which shows he’s certainly capable of much more. If Naquin were to be thrust into the Indians’ lineup tomorrow, his glove and overall athleticism are good enough that he’d be able to contribute immediately.
The biggest obstacle to Naquin becoming an everyday player is his ability to hit. There is a lot of swing and miss to his game which is something that has always been an issue for him as a pro. His swing has the tendency to get long and loopy, which exacerbates the strikeout issue. However, he has a great overall feel for the strike zone. In this respect he’s very similar to Carlos Santana. Like Santana, Naquin works deep into counts and draws plenty of walks, but he also strikes out and a decent clip.
One aspect of Naquin’s game that I believe he has improved upon in his time in Columbus is his ability to make contact. He has good bat control and can make contact with pitches anywhere in the strike zone. He uses the whole field when he’s at the plate and hits the ball where it’s pitched, isn’t trying to pull the ball to right field and he’s perfectly willing to serve a ball into left field if that’s where the ball is pitched. It’s this part of his offensive game that he will need to continue to improve upon. He’s not a power hitter and he’ll be well suited spraying the ball all over the field with singles and doubles. That being said, Naquin has exhibited more power over the last season. In 49 games in Columbus he has 6 home runs, granted that may have a lot to do with the hitter-friendly confines of Huntington Park, it could also be a sign of physical maturity. Naquin has a slight frame now, but one that appears amenable to further muscle growth as he ages which could lead him to 10-15 home runs per year.
At this point in Naquin’s career he is flirting with the line between 4th outfielder and everyday player. Given his improvements over the last 2 seasons, I think it’s quite possible that Naquin can become an everyday player but that will depend on his continued improvement at the plate. Whether or not Naquin can make those improvements in a reasonable time frame may be the decisive factor in determining his career with the Indians. The Indians aren’t at a point where they can afford to give a prospect all the time he needs to sort things out. If it were 2010, maybe he’d be given a longer lease, but this is a team that is going to be looking to compete for the next 3-4 years, if not longer, and if Naquin’s development becomes more of a hindrance it would be easy to see him traded for a more established piece or passed up by someone like Bradley Zimmer or Clint Frazier, two prospects who have much higher ceilings than Naquin. I believe Naquin can be a very valuable piece to the Indians’ roster, much more so than just a utility outfielder. Given his abilities, he very well could anchor center field for the Indians for years to come.
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