After a breakout campaign that led the Milwaukee Bucks into the playoffs last season, the 2015-16 campaign has been a letdown for fans and some critics who expected bigger and better. Things took a turn after the Brandon Knight trade. The Bucks stumbled into the finish line last season and despite the addition of Greg Monroe and return of Jabari Parker, enter Friday’s matchup with the Houston Rockets at 19-25, three-and-a-half games out of the playoffs.
Milwaukee, even Wisconsin fans in general, have a had a pretty decent run over past few years. The Wisconsin Badgers men’s basketball team, led by Bo Ryan, was a perennial Big Ten power, reaching the NCAA championship last season featuring several players who are plying their trade in the NBA this season. The Milwaukee Brewers rose out of what amounts to basically two decades of bad baseball to field some of the biggest and brightest talents of the game for a time. The Green Bay Packers have arguably the best quarterback in the league, have recently won a championship and regularly make appearances in the playoffs.
It was only natural that all of this recent success would have Wisconsin sports fans feeling good about their latest success story – a professional basketball team with new owners, a new coach, the Greek Freak, the coveted Jabari Parker, a new stadium in the works, and the signature of former Pistons big man Greg Monroe. Fresh off a playoff berth where the team exceeded expectations of even the most optimistic Sconnies.
It’s probably that ability to play so well last season, when completely unexpected, that has made the struggles of this season that much more difficult to take.
The seemingly logical early conclusion is that the Bucks were good last year, so adding Parker back into the picture after missing most of his rookie season with a torn ACL could only help. The Bucks struggled in the paint last season and still played well, Monroe – who averaged more points out of the post by himself in Detroit last season than the entire Milwaukee team – was supposed to address the inside scoring, create spacing and allow the young players around him to grow as they received less attention.
It isn’t all bad news. The letdown after the trade deadline where Knight departed and Michael Carter-Williams was brought in was a real thing, but the Bucks still managed to find their way into the playoffs and Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to take steps forward, getting better and stronger as time passes.
19-25 doesn’t look good on these Bucks. This team probably is better than, or could be better, than their record indicates at a glance. There are some obvious issues like Carter-Williams, the strange decision to part with their designated three-point shooter which reduced their effectiveness in that aspect of the game, and some serious regression on the defensive end of the floor.
Milwaukee is in the midst of one of the biggest defensive regressions in modern NBA history, after last season’s incredible improvement – also one of the biggest since the introduction of the three-point line. This piece at Vice Sports from Jared Dubin really gets into just how bad it has been for the Bucks on the defensive end.
The thing about exceptionally good or bad teams – regression to the mean is always waiting right around the corner. After starting 12-21, the Bucks have gone 7-4 over their last 11 games. The upturn for Milwaukee seems reasonable, even amidst a greatly improved Eastern Conference. While their defensive woes have been pronounced, the offense has shown some signs of life – led by Khris Middleton.
Middleton is making good on his recently signed 5-year $70 million deal. A lot was reasonably made about the downward trajectory of Milwaukee post-Knight, but Middleton is doing his best to restore the faith. During the recent run of success that has the Bucks moving back into the playoff picture, Middleton has been taking the lead on the offensive end of the floor.
In the last 11 games, Middleton led the Bucks in scoring seven times and led all scorers in four of those games. After a slow start at Charlotte on January 16, trailing by double digits, Middleton scored eight consecutive points near the end of the first half to help put the Bucks ahead going into the break. They went on to win that game, part of their current three-game winning streak.
Middleton does more than just score points for the offense, at one point in that same Hornets game Middleton could be picked up on the mic yelling to “JP” (Jabari Parker) to correct his positioning on the play leading up to a foul. Khris was animated and vocal, making sure that the rest of the team knew their roles and where they were expected to be. Moments later, during free throw attemps, Middleton retreated to the side of interim head coach Jim Prunty, the Bucks assistant coach is leading the team while Jason Kidd recovers from hip surgery, getting instructions and giving feedback.
Middleton is presumably here for the long haul, meant to be a part of the plan that is centered around developing Antetokounmpo and Parker. While Parker is busy catching up with the NBA, looking to complete his first full season, and Antetokounmpo is Euro-stepping his way to stank face slam dunks, Middleton is showing the leadership and maturity that this extremely young squad needs.
Parker, Rashad Vaughn and Johnny O’Bryant all need time to develop, and some veterans stand in their way. It can be frustrating to watch players like O.J. Mayo and Jerryd Bayless taking up time on the court while younger players go underdeveloped. Vaughn in particular offers a dimension of offense that the Bucks sorely need – he is a true scorer who put up a solid three-point percentage in his loan collegiate season. Ian Levy covered the ups and downs of Vaughn in his piece for Hardwood Paroxysm earlier this week.
If Vaughn develops some consistency – he had zero points on zero attempts in 12 minutes in an overtime win over the Atlanta Hawks, then score eight points in 17 minutes while shooting 2-for-3 from three-point range the very next night – Milwaukee might have some much-needed spacing and the three-point threat that they sorely need.
Parker has also flashed signs of life this season, hitting some jumpers and showing improved speed and explosiveness as the season goes on. He is starting to blow by defenders when he catches them lax, elevating for powerful dunks. This is a very good thing for Milwaukee.
The Bucks underperformance this season is most likely temporary. The playoffs aren’t completely out of reach, but making the playoffs as the eighth seed this season shouldn’t be the goal. The team has new ownership and would do well to not set their expectations to the same level as former owner Herb Kohl. The primary objective needs to be creating a core of Middleton-Parker-Antetokounmpo that can be developed over the next half-decade. Winning now, just enough to sneak into the playoffs to meet a one or two seed, isn’t worth sacrificing the development of a core that can eventually become the team that that Wisconsin sports fans have grown accustomed to cheering for recently – a true contender playing at an elite level.
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