One of the major questions of the St. Louis Cardinals off season has been answered…
Jaime Garcia’s 11.5M contract option has been picked up for 2016.
5 things…
1) If you take out the ‘stomach incident‘ during his GM2 NLDS start from the equation, getting Garcia at 11.5M is a bargain.
Garcia posted a FanGraphs WAR of 2.8 for the ’15 season (20 starts). According to Beyond The Box Score, each WAR point is worth 7.032M. So on the open market, Garcia would have been worth around 19.6M.
2) Of course, you have to find someone willing to pay that price. And with the Cardinals picking up the option it’s a moot point. But going by these raw (and albeit rudimentary) numbers, the team is saving somewhere from 5M-8M on a player of a similar caliber if they tried to replace him through free agency.
Even better? The Cardinals have a 2017 option on Garcia for 12M, so if he does well, or even about the same as last season – which most of you reading this are hoping for – then the Cardinals are in a position to lock him in again under market.
Jaime Garcia finished with a higher WAR this year than Price, Cueto, Shelby, Zimmerman, Lester, Hamels, or Sale. So… #STLCards #Cardinals
— JBIF Stupid Town ™ (@johnrabe) November 1, 2015
3) If you’re a huge fan of John Lackey, this isn’t good news.
The Cardinals will probably go with Wainwright, Wacha, Martinez and Garcia in the starting rotation. Lance Lynn will most likely be back, but could be traded if the Cardinals miss out on Heyward and need to acquire a dynamic bat. Tyler Lyons, Tim Cooney and Marco Gonzales will battle for spot starts/5th spot in rotation. Alex Reyes is looking more and more big league ready every outing in the Arizona Fall League.
Lackey is (rightfully) looking to make up for lost earnings in 2015 with a new multi-year deal. Unless Lackey is willing to go (pretty far) under market rate, he’s not returning.
He’d almost have to make the Cardinals an offer too good to refuse, as opposed to the other way around. Lackey, his agent and the MLBPA aren’t going to do this. His time with the team has drawn to an end.
4) Garcia is going to have to prove himself on a couple of fronts.
First, he’s going to have to come to spring training with definitive answers on what happened during his NLDS start. I’d suspect that his teammates will be fine with whatever explanation he gives after several months have passed – but he’ll want to make sure to put any lingering hard feelings to rest ASAP so everyone can move on to ’16.
He’s also going to have to stay healthy. He hasn’t pitched a complete season since 2011. He’s only made 56 starts over the past 4 seasons.
5) You never know what the team is until the games start, I suppose.
#STLCards picking up Jaime Garcia option doesn't mean they can't flip him in a trade this winter. Just saying.
— Dan Buffa (@buffa82) November 1, 2015
Garcia is a VERY valuable trade asset if the Cardinals wanted to move him (and he wasn’t on on the DL). At the end of the day, this move had to made by the Cards. But it doesn’t preclude future moves from being made, either.
For now, Garcia is back.
Photo: FOX Sports
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