Last night, Jameson Taillon struggled to find his command laboring through five innings in which he gave up five hits, five walks, and five earned runs. Five walks is a new career high. Taillon has been scuffling for well over a month now.
On the year, Taillon is 7-5 with a 4.85 ERA. He has 99 strikeouts and 37 walks in 102 innings pitched. He has given up 119 hits. Things look much different now than they did after his start on the fourth of July. At that point, his ERA sat at a cozy 2.73.
In the eight starts since, Taillon has an ERA of 8.24. He’s given up 36 earned runs on 57 hits in 39.1 innings pitched. In that span he has 40 strikeouts and 15 walks. Batters are slashing a luscious .343/.397/.530 line against him.
What is going on with the former number two overall pick?
No Luck
Believe it or not, Taillon has been extremely unlucky. Not much has changed in Taillon’s approach from his first 11 starts to these last eight starts.
For starters, opponents had a BABIP of .322 against Taillon in his first 11 starts. In his last eight starts, opponents have a BABIP of .417. That is nearly a .100 point difference which is both crazy and unsustainable.
In his first 11 starts, Taillon averaged 8.5 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. His K/BB ratio was 2.7. In his last eight starts, Taillon has averaged 9.2 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9. His K/BB ratio? 2.7. Taillon had a ground ball rate of 52 percent in his first 11 starts. In his last eight starts, Taillon has a ground ball rate of 46.1 percent. He’s not generating as many grounders, but the decrease is not extreme.
In his first 11 starts, Taillon generated soft contact at a rate of 25.3 percent and hard contact at a rate of 28 percent. In his last eight starts, Taillon has generated soft contact 22.1 percent of the time. His hard contact rate sits at 33.6 percent in that span. Although he’s getting hit slightly harder, Taillon is not getting hit an extra five and a half runs per nine innings harder. Home runs have not been an issue for Taillon as he’s given five in his first 11 starts and four over his last eight starts.
The most telling stat for Taillon has been xFIP, a measurement for what the pitcher and only the pitcher can control. In his first 11 starts, Taillon had an xFIP of 3.71. Once again, his ERA sat at 2.73. Over his last eight starts, Taillon has had an xFIP of 3.83. I remind you that his ERA over that span is 8.24. I really don’t have words for how much that doesn’t make sense.
Don’t change a thing
We all know Taillon’s story. He has already overcome so many obstacles in his young career. These last eight starts have been the greatest on-field obstacle that Taillon has faced to date. Taillon is currently going through a funk. More balls are finding holes and dropping in for hits.
The last thing you want from Taillon is for him to press and try to change things. He doesn’t really need to change things. He is still putting in good work but just isn’t getting the proper results at the moment.
Taillon is still just 25 years old even though it might seem like he’s been in the organization forever. He is still maturing and gaining experience. That being said, Taillon is still a huge part of the Pirates’ future. He may very well be the ace of the staff in two years. For now though, Taillon needs to just keep on plugging along. He will be fine in the end. The numbers speak for themselves.
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