If you were to tell me that Jared Cowen was confused these days, I’d believe it from his on-ice play.
A lot of eyebrows yesterday when Ottawa’s media collectively tweeted from practice writing, “Jared Cowen was surprised to have been a healthy scratch so early in the season.”
For anyone who watched the first two games of the season, you’re probably thinking that Cowen’s comments show a complete lack of self-awareness, especially when he followed up that quote by stating that he thought he played decent in Nashville.
To borrow a state from Senstats.com, Cowen is the same player who was on the ice for zero, I repeat zero, scoring chances against the Predators but 11 scoring chances against while playing at five-on-five.
Interestingly though, looking at the Senators’ underlying numbers while they have played at five-on-five while the score is close, Cowen actually has the best Corsi for percentage (CF%) amongst at 44.23. Others like Cody Ceci (33.33), Chris Phillips (30.77) and Mark Borowiecki (38.46) are all well below the 40.0 percent mark – which speaks volumes about how much the Senators have struggled to get the puck moving out of their own end quickly creating this massive disparity in the puck possession game.
Unlike those other defencemen however, Cowen has played with the league’s most dynamic puck-moving defenceman in Erik Karlsson. Karlsson’s an elite player and with Cowen, he’s been dragged down to an underwhelming 43.75 CF%.
But it’s not like Cowen’s been the only blue liner whose play has left something to be desired. He’s just been the worst of a mediocre lot whose collective talent level or lack thereof has come under the microscope thanks to the absence of an injured Marc Methot.
Cowen is just the poster child for the blue line’s problems and in reading through the various Cowen quotes from Ian Mendes’ latest column on TSN, Cowen’s comments aren’t even that bad.
“Yeah it surprised me. Only two games, so yeah it did surprise me. It sucks only the third game of the year. I just need to be better though.”
…
“Yeah, I have confidence, it’s just getting games going and shifts and rhythms. In Nashville I felt like I was getting that, but in Tampa not really, not on and off the ice.”
On talk radio and social media, Cowen’s become a whipping boy for this team’s shortcomings and when you think about it, it’s kind of messed up that a portion of this team’s fan base derives some kind of pleasure from seeing him fail because they just want to see him gone.
Attrition amongst prospects happens regardless of draft position, so maybe those fans are right in thinking that his underlying numbers don’t really paint the picture of a player who is ready to take a giant step in his development and yes, maybe they’re right in thinking that significant injuries to his hip and knee have put a glass ceiling below whatever talent level he could have reached pre-injury. Maybe they’re even right to think that the Senators would be better off to cash in on whatever’s left of Jared Cowen’s trade value because some general manager believes that his organization can be the one to turn around Cowen’s career and ensure that he makes better use of the physical tools that teams become so enamoured with.
With Cowen, it’s all about projecting talent and as skeptical as I am of him fulfilling the expectations that came with him being a top ten draft pick, I don’t think there’s any question that the best-case scenario for Cowen is that he pans out and develops into a credible top four defenceman. You just wouldn’t know it by the way that some are acting.
Alfie to Retire?
Yesterday the Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James indicated that Daniel Alfredsson is no closer to returning from his nagging back injury leading to speculation that a retirement announcement could be imminent.
Even though the Detroit Red Wings have told Alfredsson to take more time to recuperate, Alfie “is no longer skating at Joe Louis Arena on his own, and last week told general manager Ken Holland there wasn’t much chance that would change.”
I’d make some comment about how tragic it is for Alfie to have an injury end his career like this, but with the way that he left Ottawa, we all kind of knew that this was where it was headed, right?
As unlikely as it would be for Alfredsson to sign a one-day contract and go out as an Ottawa Senator, hopefully the Senators and Alfie can put whatever differences they have aside and do something to appease his fans.
Pronman on Nick Paul
In ESPN Insider Corey Pronman’s latest (note: paywall), the prospect guru took a look at some hot starts by drafted NHL prospects and devoted one section to the Senators’ Nick Paul.
“Paul has been a player who has continued to trend up through the second half of last season, into the OHL playoffs and through the start of the 2014-15 season. He has the potential to be a significant piece of the Jason Spezza trade.
I’m still not in love with his skating, but he’s got size, good defensive awareness, and has really developed in terms of his coordination and creativity with the puck. I expect him to make a strong push to be a bottom-six forward on Canada’s WJC team.”
Pre-game Festivities at the CTC Tonight
The Senators reminded fans going to tonight’s game to arrive early. Fans have been asked to arrive for 4:30 pm so that they can be there to greet players on the red carpet and partake in some Red Zone activities.
According to the Senators, fans should be in their seats before 7:15 because through the help of TKNL Experience Markers, “the Senators have created a multi-media pre-game show that will feature 3D animation, incredible visual effects, video highlights and a unique audio track featuring Canadian rock band Thousand Foot Krutch.”
I have to admit, everything sounds great except for the Thousand Foot Krutch part.
Thoughts on Thoughts
Elliotte Friedman posted his latest ‘30 Thoughts’ blog over at Sportsnet and within it are a number of Senators-related items.
- Senators GM Bryan Murray on Erik Karlsson: “He’s going to have such a great season even you guys in Toronto will recognize how good he is.”
Karlsson has already won a Norris Trophy, so I feel pretty confident saying that people already know how good he is. Now with that being said, there’s no question that Karlsson’s defensive game took a step back following his surgery, so if Bryan Murray was simply referring to how much attention Karlsson’s all-around game should get this season, well then, giddy up.
- Some interesting quotes out of Ottawa about Paul MacLean and his relationship with the players. Both sides have talked a lot about how things went awry in 2013-14 and how everyone’s worked to make sure that does not happen again. “We’ve spent a lot of time defining roles,” the GM said. “Last year, no one seemed to understand where they stood. The relationship from the coach, to the captain [the now-traded Jason Spezza] on down, was not good, for whatever reason. We’ve addressed that properly this time. Everyone understands their role.” This kind of conversation was critical in Bobby Ryan’s re-signing.
It’s interesting to hear how much a conversation about roles was critical to Bobby Ryan’s re-signing when he’s downplayed the significance of what his role has been in Ottawa elsewhere.
- Murray believes the best way for Ottawa to counter last year’s defensive zone nightmare is to aggressively forecheck and make sure the puck stays as far from the net as possible. Asked about his best at doing this, he answered with Clarke MacArthur, Mika Zibanejad, Milan Michalek and Curtis Lazar. Asked if Lazar is an 82-game player, he replied, “I believe he is. But we’re going to find out if he’s ready for that right now.”
The Senators have the second worst close Fenwick percentage in the entire NHL, so yeah, I’d like for them to keep the puck as far away from their net as possible too because eventually, their even strength save percentage of .966 will normalize.
Taxation in the Canadian Markets
TSN’s Rick Westhead published an interesting article that examines the effects of income taxes on NHL players by contrasting the differences that players face. Not surprisingly, players in Quebec and Ontario “pay the highest combined federal and provincial/state income tax rate in the NHL.”
According to TSN’s study:
“Montreal Canadiens players are especially hard hit by the taxman. Subban and Markov, along with goalie Carey Price, hand over a bigger percentage of their compensation than any other players in the league. Toronto Maple Leafs captain Dion Phaneuf and Ottawa Senators captain Erik Karlsson are the only other players in study who pay more than 49 per cent tax, although Karlsson’s tax burden would be lower if he uses an RCA.”
It’s a serious competitive advantage for teams in states in Florida or Texas for example, but the article also mentioned how Canadian teams can rig a player’s contract by paying a significant portion of the player’s contract in the way of a signing bonus to help offset this problem. Apparently this was a strategy used by the Newport Group in the Bobby Ryan negotiations.
“When Bobby Ryan, a U.S. citizen, signed a recent contract extension with Ottawa, for instance, his agent Don Meehan told TSN he ensured that $2 million of his compensation each year was payable in the form of a signing bonus.”
Tonight’s Lines Vs the Avalanche:
MacArthur-Turris-Stone
Ryan-Zibanejad-Chiasson
Michalek-Smith-Lazar
Condra-Legwand-Neil
Phillips-Karlsson
Wiercioch-Ceci
Borowiecki-Gryba
Anderson
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