2016 Angels Preview: Jered Weaver

Jered Weaver had long been an enigma for sabermetrically inclined folks. For the baseball fans that don’t subscribe to WAR, FIP, and other peripheral stats with acronyms starting with x’s or ending in a plus or minus sign, Jered Weaver looked like the ideal starting pitcher for any team in Major League Baseball. He won a lot of games, he didn’t allow a lot of runs to score and he pitched a ton of innings. Everyone jump on the party bus, we’re rocking this baby until the wheels fall off, and after that, we’re going to keep on rolling. Who needs tires anyway?

I admit that I was one of those people who dismissed the peripherals. The regular occurrence of Weaver’s FIP being a run higher than his ERA didn’t frighten me. What’s that? His strikeout percentage fell even lower this year? Yeah, I’m not concerned. Jered Weaver had made a career out of outplaying his fielding independent statistics, why would I, or anyone else for that matter, worry about his performance on a year-to-year basis? Because some of us didn’t pay more acute attention to the precipitous decline of his fastball velocity. It’s hard to outplay your peripherals when you are throwing batting practice to major league hitters.

Position: SP | Age (2016): 33
Bats: R | Throws: R
Height: 6’7” | Weight: 210
2015 WAR: 0.3

2015 in a Tweet

Jered Weaver is only the 8th starter this decade to pitch more than 155 innings with a K/9 below 5.1 and a BB/9 below 1.9. The others have names like Mark Buehrle and Carl Pavano.

2016 Projections

The projection systems aren’t fans of the new Jered Weaver. They expect ERA’s in the mid 4.00’s and they expect FIP’s near 5.00. They do expect his K/9 to bounce back a smidge, but I think that is just because they can’t even believe that it fell to just over five strikeouts per nine innings pitched. And, to be honest, I’m bearish on those strikeout statistics. In Weaver’s first spring training start, he did strikeout three Cubs hitters, but it was also reported that his fastball sat 81-83. I drove faster than that the other day when I was running late for work.

It is true that some pitchers have carved out lengthy careers with low velocity, but that does not mean that those pitchers carved careers that were actually good. Jamie Moyer finished his career with a career ERA of 4.25, and another soft tosser, Barry Zito, finished with an ERA of 4.04. And they were actually crafty. Weaver’s problem is that his craftiness from the right side was built off of a good fastball. Now he’s trying to be crafty with diminished velocity, and no one is buying it. At least, that’s how it played out last season.

*PECOTA uses DRA in lieu of FIP

Pitch Usage

Weaver had a bit of a resurgence in 2014, and it is possible that that could happen again, he just has to throw his fastball less. In 2014, Jered started throwing his sinker more often and his fastball less. He also saw an uptick in the usage of his curveball and changeup. The results? He went 18-9 with a 3.59 ERA and pitched over 200 innings. Weaver had to be aware that he was losing zip on his fastball, he had to. And with that knowledge, he adjusted. Then, in 2015, he reverted back to his 2013 pattern, and that was where we all saw him fall apart.

Weaver’s fastball has always had movement, but at this lower velocity, it’s just not as effective. And with him coming into the final season of his five-year deal with the Angels, and an uncertain future lying ahead, he needs to reinvent himself again, and quickly.

Zone Profile

Weaver has started to live down and away from, really, any hitter that stands in the box. Once-upon-a-time, he used to drive hitters crazy by regularly throwing his curveball up in the zone frequently. He might do that from time-to-time now, but part of his evolution over the lasts three years has been to be conscious of the fact that he needs to both work down in the zone, and keep the ball away from hitters.

Fun Fact

In case you missed it, Jered Weaver got his groove on at a Jennifer Lopez concert this offseason. Luckily for us, Dan Haren is slick with a camera.

What to Watch For

Be aware of how much Jered Weaver uses his fastball this year. His success will hinge on how much he mixes up his pitches, and to what degree he relies on his secondary pitches.

A Bold Prediction

Jered Weaver won’t be terrible, even though it feels like that is the trajectory of his career, and that is about as bold as I can be regarding the Simi Valley native. Maybe his new stretching regimen will keep him healthy. That would be nice. As much as Weaver wants me to grab for a bottle of tequila when he starts, he is still more reliable than what the Angels have as depth in the minors.

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Previous Previews: Yunel Escobar; Kole Calhoun; Mike Trout; Albert Pujols; C.J. Cron; Daniel Nava; Carlos Pérez; Johnny Giavotella; Geovany Soto; Andrelton Simmons; Cliff Pennington