Joey Butler: More Than Just a No Hit Spoiler

On July 1st, 2015, Carlos Carrasco pitched as well as any pitcher in Major League baseball history for eight innings. Unfortunately, he began the ninth with a walk and a hit batter before left fielder Joey Butler ended his no hitter with an RBI single to center that ended Carrasco’s day.

The Indians still got the win and Butler would continue on with his first full MLB season, batting .276/.326/.416 with eight home runs and 30 RBI in 88 games. For those in the more SABR friendly crowd, he had a slightly above average 109 wRC+ and a 0.3 WAR. Despite this general success as a bench outfielder, Butler was designated for assignment early in the off-season by the Tampa Bay Rays and was selected off waivers by Cleveland, adding him to the mix of outfielders competing for a spot in 2016.

Unlike most of the outfielders in this race, Butler is primarily an offensive threat. While Collin Cowgill (15.6 UZR/150 in 1,702.1 OF innings) and Abraham Almonte (15.5 UZR/150 in 938.2 CF innings) could do much to fix the defensive problems in center field and Rajai Davis (15 UZR/150 in CF for 2015, 9 in left) should fill in nicely for Brantley, expectations for Butler would be mostly on his bat. All three of the players mentioned (most of the other outfielders signed, like Michael Choice, Robbie Grossman and Shane Robinson are extreme long shots to make the team) have experience in all three outfield positions with a significant amount of time in center. Butler, on the other hand, has been exclusively in left to this point with just 25 of his 242 innings in the field coming in right.

While his overall career defensive numbers don’t look terrible, other than his time in left last year, none of those numbers are significant. What is significant is his 3.8 UZR/150 from 2015 of which almost all the positive came from his above average throwing arm. In this, he is much like the player he could be partially replacing, Michael Brantley, who has a career negative UZR in both center and left, but has extremely positive values for both his arm strength and accuracy and his error rate.

Given that Indians fans have been watching and talking up Brantley’s defense for years, replacing him for a month or two with the likes of Butler and Davis, especially with Lonnie Chisenhall in right field and an non-Michael Bourn center fielder could actually improve the outfield defense to it’s pinnacle since at least the 2008 group that included Grady Sizemore, Shin Shoo Choo and Ben Francisco (27 DRS). Essentially, Butler is not a superstar in the field, but he’s certainly good enough to start for the Indians on a regular basis in 2016 looking solely at his defense.

With no obvious regulars set for Opening Day 2016, it appears that the outfield will be a mess of interchangeable parts, making the most of the match-up in any individual game. Looking at the two primary candidates to play left field, Davis and Butler, both are right handed, but there is still a distinct platoon advantage.

Contrary to general expectations, both hitters were more reliable against right handed pitchers although Davis had more power against left. Despite this, Butler was considerably better against right handers than Davis and Davis was at least marginally better than Butler against left. Neither is the type of player you would want to rely upon every day, but combined, they could be a solid replacement for Brantley for a short period.

Because of his contract and veteran title, Davis is virtually guaranteed to make the Opening Day roster while Butler will have to fight for his spot. At the moment, however, he appears to be in the pole position. This doesn’t mean he will make the team, particularly since others like Cowgill and Almonte have the center field advantage over him, but he is far above the lower group of Robinson, Choice and Grossman and unlike Cowgill and Almonte, could be used in more situations than just the field.

While there has been a stereotype that the Indians can’t hit left handed pitching, numbers from 2015 as well as the changes to the lineup (particularly the addition of Mike Napoli) would state otherwise and the fact that Butler is better against right handers (which still make up the majority of the league even if they don’t make up the majority of the White Sox) could make him a very valuable pinch hitter and DH. Considering that both Napoli and Carlos Santana are better overall hitters against left handers, I could see a way that Butler could play in 80 to 100 games if he makes the roster and if he continued to play as well as he did in 2015.

Even if he doesn’t make the roster, unlike a free agent with a minor league invite, Butler is under team control through 2021 and doesn’t even hit arbitration until 2018. He also still has a minor league option, so even if he isn’t included on the 25 man roster, he could be kept in AAA as long as he is on the 40 man roster. Given the low level of players currently inhabiting much of the Indians 40 man, he should have no problem doing this. Overall, he was a solid pick up and it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Butler make some noise in the Major Leagues this year. At least this time it won’t be at the expense of a Carlos Carrasco no hitter.