José Álvarez had to battle to solidify his place in the Angels’ relief corps in 2015, but gets to coast into the bullpen this year. This is partly due to the fact that he’s the only real experienced lefty reliever remaining in the organization, but mostly the result of a strong effort in his first season as a full-time reliever.
Álvarez turned in more multi-inning appearances (19) last season than any Halos reliever over the last five years, offering at least the hope that Mike Scioscia might return to his days of letting a bullpen arm stay in the game for as long as he’s effective—think Scot Shields or Shigetoshi Hasegawa. The problem there is that Álvarez is also the only lefty in the ‘pen, at least initially, meaning he’ll probably have a fair share of one- or two-batter outings in addition to his multi-inning efforts.
Position: RP | Age (2016): 27
Throws: L | Bats: L
Height: 5’11” | Weight: 180
2015 WAR: 0.4
2015 in a Tweet
José Álvarez was solidly average in his first full season of bullpen duty, serving as the Halos’ first quasi multi-inning reliever in years.
2016 Projections
[table id=184 /]What a surprise, PECOTA thinks yet another Angels reliever will post a ~3.75 ERA and just over 4.00 DRA. At least this time the projection finally makes some sense based on career performance. Everybody seems to be in agreement that Álvarez has a high likelihood of being an average pitcher in 2016, which seems about right. The left-hander isn’t going to overpower anyone on the mound, but he’s got just enough stuff and more than enough pitches (see: below) to keep batters from teeing off regularly.
If I had to guess I’d say Álvarez’s workload will most closely resemble his ZiPS projection, as he stands to be the only lefty in the bullpen for at least the first chunk of the season. That may change once Tyler Skaggs and C.J. Wilson get healthy and inevitably push Hector Santiago to the ‘pen—the Angels aren’t going to have four lefties in their rotation—but when that’ll happen is still very much up in the air.
*PECOTA uses DRA in lieu of FIP
Pitch Usage
Álvarez’s pitch usage appears to be all over the place, but that’s just a small-sample illusion. He threw literally 10 MLB pitches in 2014, so of course everything’s out of whack. If we ignore the middle data points and focus solely on 2013 and 2015, when he threw 38⅔ IP and 67 IP, respectively, we get a much better sense of the left-hander’s arsenal and how he chooses to deploy it.
For instance: Álvarez came to rely much more on his sinker last season, especially against right-handed batters (37.4%), and ultimately threw the pitch just as often as his fourseam. He also developed more of a cogent plan with his offspeed pitches in 2015, preferring to go almost exclusively slider/curve vs. lefties and change/slider vs. righties—this was not the case in 2013.
That Álvarez possesses five pitches he trusts against MLB hitting is the reason he’ll likely never be just a lefty specialist; there’s no reason to limit him when he has multiple secondary offerings that are effective against right-handed batters. It’s also a big reason why he’s always an outside candidate for the rotation.
Zone Profile
Álvarez keeps everything moving away from same-sided hitters, as he should, and does much of the same against right-handed batters. But while he almost never attacks the inside corner against lefties, he does like to throw his slider at the back foot of righties every now and again. He also has a troubling tendency to leave pitches over the heart of the plate against righties, which said batters crush, naturally. Perhaps less of that would be better.
Fun Fact
José Álvarez is one of just five lefty relievers since 1988 to throw more than 65 innings for the Angels in a season. The others? Darren Oliver (’08 & ’09), Hisanori Takahashi (’11), and Mike Magnante (’99).
What to Watch For
Álvarez was utilized primarily in low leverage situations (51.5%) in 2015, but found his way into high-leverage spots (28%) with some frequency. Now that César Ramos is no longer around to help tackle large chunks of the mop-up duty, it’s worth wondering if Álvarez is going to eventually take on an even bigger low-leverage role. When/if that happens, who takes the high-leverage spots he moonlighted for?
A Bold Prediction
Álvarez will be a solid, mid-innings guy with the occasional cameo as a late-inning LOOGY. That’s as bold as I’m gonna get.
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