Josh Beckett a goner after 2010?

“We’d better enjoy [Josh] Beckett the next three years,” one Boston Red Sox official said, “Because we won’t be able to sign him after his deal is up after 2010.” — Peter Gammons

Whaaa? Come again?
Is it possible that Josh Beckett might price himself out of the Red Sox’s range once he finally hits free agency in 2011?
The Red Sox signed Josh Beckett to a three-year deal in the midst of his horrific 2006 campaign and also tacked on a club option that the Sox might as well go ahead and pick up now. Beckett made $10 million in ’07 and will make that through 2009 with the option checking in at $12 million.
That is a ridiculously good contract, and I tip my hat to Theo Epstein for having the foresight to ink him to it. The to-be 28 year old had a 3.27 ERA in 200.2 IP this last year with 20 wins and seems to have turned a corner in his career: this is his second straight year of throwing over 200 innings after never having topped 178.2. When the deal is over, Beckett will be entering his age-31 season (Santana is entering his age-29 season this year).
As we all know, Johan Santana just signed a six-year, $137.5 million deal, a year after Barry Zito’s seven-year, $126 million commitment from the San Francisco Giants. The money awarded to pitchers is going through the stratosphere, and C.C. Sabathia will be the beneficiary of that next year (early prediction: Yankees’ young three stumble, Andy Pettitte retires, C.C. saves the day next off-season for them).
When Beckett becomes a free agent, if he continues along the path that he’s set for himself, he could sign a very lucrative five-year (at the minimum) extension for (again, minimum, especially once you factor in inflation) $20 million each year. Would the Red Sox invest it? Should they?
Three years is a long ways off, and it’s too early to have an educated opinion about it, but apparently it’s not early enough for whispers to occur, as the quote that Gammons just provided us with attests.
Here’s what struck me about the quote (emphasis mine): “[W]e won’t be able to sign him after his deal is up after 2010.”
I don’t think it’s that we won’t be able to… it’s that we’ll decide not to. It’s that we’ll decide that we will have milked the most out of Beckett, that there’s no financial sense to giving him an extension because the 2011 rotation right now projects to Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Michael Bowden, Justin Masterson/Nick Hagadone/a free agent/Tim Wakefield! (Hey, don’t count Timmy boy out.)
I have every confidence that Beckett will be a monster again in 2008. I feel that PECOTA sells him short at 205 innings with a 3.98 ERA. Innings sounds right, ERA doesn’t. Bill James projects a 3.50 ERA (203 IP), Chone at 3.79 (197 IP) and Marcel at 3.88 (181 IP). Sorry, not seeing it. That’s the problem with predictive sources — they pretty much have to factor in the entire career, and what those don’t factor in is that (a) he’s been rocksolid healthy for two years, excepting his skin flap… flap and I’m sorry, but for a pitcher of his caliber, his 2006 is so whacked out of norm that it shouldn’t be factored in any predictions.
He’s entering his age 28 season. Let’s reiterate that point again. In olden days, the prime of a baseball player was considered 28-32. Now it’s considered 26-32. This means that Josh Beckett is either hitting his prime or is solidly in the middle of it. And we’re projecting regression? I don’t think so.
He’ll get better and better and better, but at some point, the Red Sox will be challenged to meet what Beckett feels his value is in order to resign him. As the Red Sox have shown in the past (and have often been proved correct on), they know when to get rid of a player. They may not know when not to bring in a player (see Lugo, J. and Drew, J.) but they definitely know when to cut the cord.
The Red Sox have gobs of money. We know this. We also know that by the time Beckett’s contract is up, Manny’s contract will be gone, so will Varitek’s. Lugo’s. Lowell’s. I’m sure more money will take their place, but if we want to, we can unquestionably show Beckett the money.
So I have to disagree with the Red Sox official’s quote. It’s not that we won’t be able to sign him. It’s that we may not want to. And it’s far too early to determine that.