Juan Nicasio and the Door to a Starting Job

Has Juan Nicasio done enough to potentially earn a spot in the starting rotation, or will others have to struggle in order for him to get there?

When Juan Nicasio was signed on December 10, 2015, most thought he would be primarily a reliever and an occasional spot starter in the Pirates’ rotation. It was a fair assumption, given Nicaso was coming off a season that saw him appear in 53 games, but only make one start for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Nicasio is making a strong argument that he may belong in the starting rotation come April 3rd, as he has yet to allow a run in 10 spring training innings and is coming off a dominant start against the Baltimore Orioles. He went four innings, allowed no runs on one hit and struck out TEN batters. However, we know that the Pirates have said they are committed to both Jeff Locke and Ryan Vogelsong as the back-end of the rotation and neither has looked awful so far this spring. So for Nicasio to steal one of those two spots, would either Locke or Vogelsong have to start greatly struggling or can Nicasio simply outperform one of them to win a starting job?

Nicaso has never been a truly effective major league starting pitcher, but he also played the bulk of his games in Colorado, and while he has a career 5.12 ERA as a starting pitcher, he does boast a starting FIP of 4.36 and an xFIP of 4.09. Clearly he was the victim of either bad luck or Coors Field, depending on your perspective.

Nicaso has also never pitched in the Pirates organization before and as we know, Ray Searage has been somewhat of a wizard when it comes to reclamation projects. Could Nicaso simply be the next great success story of Ray Searage? Does he deserve a chance to prove himself if Locke and/or Vogelsong don’t struggle in spring training?

I believe that spring training is a time where the entire back-end of the rotation should be open for anyone to win a job and Nicasio has simply been leagues better than both Vogelsong and Locke so far. Locke has a spring ERA of 6.00 right now, but most of that was because of his horrible first start. Vogelsong also struggled in his first outing of the spring, but has settled down and now has a spring training ERA of 4.00.

Locke and Vogelsong have both been successful big league starting pitchers in the past, and Nicasio has yet to be, so how much stock can you truly put in spring training numbers? If things continue as they are, with Locke being bad and Vogelsong being decent, should Nicaso beat out Locke for the fifth starter role? There is still time left before Opening Day, so everything should sort itself out eventually, but for now let’s enjoy the great debate that Juan Nicaso is giving us.

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