If you operate every spring with the broad assumption that spring training stats don’t matter, you will both be mostly correct and prevent yourself from stressing out over roster decisions too much. There are some exceptions to that axiom, though. For example, if you pitch 15 shutout innings over five appearances (four starts), scatter ten hits, walk five hitters, and strike out 24 batters (!), you might earn yourself an unexpected rotation spot. This is what Juan Nicasio did this spring. There are arguments to be made, I think, about his past results and his value in the bullpen vs. Ryan Vogelsong’s value there, but really, those would be as much ex post facto justifications of a decision not supported by stats (which, again, all spring decisions don’t have to be supported by stats so long as they’re supported by something) as actual argument. Nicasio was incredible this spring, and the back end of the Pirate rotation is not good enough to hold someone that might be incredible out of it. Hence, Nicasio is in the rotation and Vogelsong is in the bullpen. Maybe this will work and maybe it won’t, but every long-winded WHYGAVS winter post about the value of a deep bullpen to prop up and mask a weak rotation holds as true for Juan Nicasio as it does for Ryan Vogelsong.
This is not the only rotation news this week; earlier the Pirates announced that Jeff Locke would also get a rotation spot. This resulted in puzzlement from all across Piratedom: What do the Pirates see in Jeff Locke?!? mostly everyone has wailed. Are we really going to do this again?!? We are, apparently, and so it’s worth it to ask why.
The answer, I think, lies in this old Lookout Landing post by Matthew Carruth:
I assume that when most people talk about a #5 starter, they talk about some mythical rotation that almost never misses a start and this person being the worst pitcher on it. For the most part, those rotations do not happen.
You can also find an answer this Rotographs post from Eno Sarris about fifth starters: fifth starters average 97 innings. On the Pirates’ three playoff teams, the starters with the fifth most innings were Charlie Morton (116), Jeff Locke (131 1/3), and Morton again (129). In each of those three seasons, the Pirates had pitchers who didn’t open the season in the rotation (Morton and Gerrit Cole in 2013, Vance Worley in 2014, JA Happ last year) all come into the rotation during the season and pitch much better than a pitcher that started there (Wandy Rodriguez in 2013, Morton and Locke the last two years).
There is no big secret as to why Locke is in the rotation, nor is there any hidden value that the Pirates see in him that isn’t paying off. The reason Locke is in the rotation is because Jeff Locke is, more or less, exactly what a fifth starter is. He’s there to soak up some innings and keep the Pirates in games and be carried by the bullpen every fifth day. The Pirates obviously like using someone like Locke, who can occasionally pitch very well and occasionally pitches very poorly, over someone who is consistently just barely sub-mediocre. He’s there because no one will bat an eye if Vogelsong or Corey Luebke pitches exceptionally out of the bullpen and needs a rotation spot, or if Tyler Glasnow or Jameson Taillon pitch their way out of Triple-A and deserve a promotion. He’s there because the starters that threw the fifth most innings on last year’s playoff teams were (breath) Morton, Ivan Nova, David Price (which really makes Drew Hutchison the fifth starter, since he was a midseason acquisition), Chris Young, Cole Hamels (Wandy Rodriguez, by the previously mentioned Price Principle), Roberto Hernandez, Noah Syndergaard, Jamie Garcia, Dan Haren, and Carlos Frias. There are some gems there, for sure, but there are just as many Morton/Lockes.
The risk the Pirates are taking this April is that, without knowing exactly what it is that they look for in their reclamation projects or how far along they think every pitcher is, it appears from my perspective that they aren’t just filling one rotation spot with a fungible pitcher like Jeff Locke, it’s that Jon Niese and Juan Nicasio might be the exact same type of pitcher. I assume that they think highly enough of Niese that they consider him to be a surer bet than this, and Nicasio has obviously been brilliant in the Grapefruit League, so maybe this is less of a gamble than it appears. Still, the real concern that the Pirates should have right now is not that Jeff Locke is their fifth-best starter; it’s that someone else in the rotation might be.
Image credit: Stacy Revere, Getty Images
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