It was immediately obvious to anyone at Ed Smith Stadium in Sarasota this afternoon that Juan Nicasio was making the Orioles look stupid. He made Manny Machado and Adam Jones look really bad by mixing a mid-90s fastball (generally 92-94, but I saw it hit 95 at least once on the scoreboard) and got Pedro Alvarez on a bunt (?!? — I guess he was practicing bunting through the shift, though he kept squaring around the whole at-bat). He cruised through the second and third, as well, allowing only one hit and hitting Chris Davis. When he hit the mound in the fourth with Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and Mark Trumbo due up, I figured watching him face the heart of the order a third time would be interesting and kind of instructive. He struck out the side. I was surprised when I checked my phone to see that he had TEN strikeouts to that point, though only because he’d recorded a total of 12 outs to that point and striking out that many hitters in such a short span is crazy (I figured he had about eight, though I obviously was not keeping score). I guess maybe that many strikeouts against the Orioles specifically is not absurd, but regardless; Nicasio was really impressive today, in the way that it even caught the eye of a guy who was hopping around from section to section of the ballpark, drinking beer, and being on vacation as opposed to thinking about writing a blog post about it later today.
Unsurprisingly, by the time I got in the car for the ride back from Sarasota, the internet was littered with articles about Ray Searage’s newest reclamation project (here and here and here, to some extent, though Travis Sawchik is obviously more reserved due to being more familiar with the Pirates) and general talk had turned to the question of whether or not Nicasio was pitching his way past Jeff Locke or Ryan Vogelsong and into the starting rotation. I’m not sure it’s quite time for that yet.
To begin with, remember that at this time last year we were all sure that Radhames Liz was in the process of pitching his way into a high-leverage bullpen job (Liz was impressive but not nearly as impressive as Nicasio has been this spring); spring training is live baseball with pitchers facing hitters, but it’s also spring training. Pedro Alvarez was batting second and trying to bunt for base hits today. Nicasio faced a lot of good Orioles hitters, but it’s not easy to say that he faced them at the top of their games.
Second, remember that a big part of the Pirates’ strategy this year is a deep and strong bullpen. Joe Blanton threw 34 1/3 innings as a Pirate over the season’s final 60 games; that would’ve put him on pace for about 93 innings over the pace of a full season. A strong swingman can help shore up several spots in the rotation, and I’m not sure I’d trust Locke or Vogelsong to that task. It’s a fine line if Vogelsong and Locke are both terrible, but given how the Pirates operated down the stretch last year, I don’t know that there’s a huge gap in value for them between last starter and swing man. It’s also worth noting that Jared Hughes and Arquimedes Caminero have been terrible this spring and that someone has to pitch out of the bullpen.
Finally, remember that both Locke and Vogelsong being expected to start the season in the rotation is partially because the Pirates are expecting a fluid rotation this year. They’re there because the Pirates will have no issues replacing them with Glasnow or Kingham or Taillon. I don’t know that Juan Nicasio will start the season in the rotation, but if he keeps on striking out 10 of every 14 hitters he faces, I’m sure the Pirates will be able to find innings for him. I’m guessing the Pirates are going to want to see a bit more from him before making that sort of move, though, and I don’t have a huge problem with that.
Image: Stacy Revere, Getty Images
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