A Healthy Jung Ho Kang Means Big Things for the Pirates in 2017

Jung Ho Kang improved on his rookie year production in 2016 despite having to rehabilitate his knee. A healthy and productive Kang in 2017 could greatly propel the Pirates

Jung Ho Kang came out of the gates quickly in 2015, helping propel the Pirates to a 98 win season and earning consideration for rookie of the year.  He was not able to finish the 2015 season due to a horrific leg injury, which also caused him to miss the start of the 2016 season.  Now that Kang has had a chance to recover, what can we expect from the third baseman in 2017?

Setting New Precedents

Jung Ho Kang burst onto the Pittsburgh Pirates scene in 2015 when he became the first position player from the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) to start in the MLB.  He started slowly, initially coming in as a pinch hitter, but quickly became a regular in the lineup.  When Jordy Mercer went on the DL, Kang became the Pirate’s everyday shortstop.  As the 2015 season progressed, his performance at the plate got better and better, most likely due to more experience with MLB pitching.  From July 1, 2015 until his injury in mid-September, Kang delivered a batting average of .307, a slugging percentage of .530 and 11 home runs.  Kang had arrived.

Kang’s Solid Start

Kang spent the entire offseason rehabbing his injured leg and did not return to action until May 6, 2016.  Who could forget his first game back where he hit two home runs and single-handedly beat the Cardinals?  As the 2016 season progressed, Kang established himself as a key part of the Pirates lineup, knocking in 21 home runs in only 318 at-bats.  His HR per plate appearance percentage was one of the best in the league at 5.7%.  His 2015 and 2016 stats are shown in the table below.

Jung Ho Kang Batting Statistics

That’s not to say that Kang hasn’t gone through slumps.  In June of 2015 he struck out 21 times and hit only one home run. In July 2016, his slash line was a paltry .182/.250/.255 with 18 strikeouts against only 4 walks.  However, this is hardly unusual for a big league hitter and his overall performance over two years proves that he is a dependable middle-of the order bat.

Kang is more than just his slash line

One of the more pleasant surprises is how Kang hits to all parts of the field.  He is not the dead pull hitter that many thought he would be.  In 2016, he pulled 43.6% of balls in play, hit 35.3% to center and 20.7% to the opposite field.  This is illustrated in his spray chart below.

Jung Ho Kang 2016 Spray Chart – Courtesy of FanGraphs

He has steadily decreased his ground ball rate, dropping it from, 49.8% in 2015 to 42.3% in 2016.  Not coincidentally, his HR per PA rate has gone up from 3.2% to 5.7% in the same timeframe.  His hard contact rate increased in 2016 to 39.4% while his soft contact rate dropped to 17%.  If you are a fan of BABiP, then you might say he was a bit lucky in his rookie season, with a BABiP of .344, but in 2016, this dropped to .273, which you might call unlucky.  In any event, his performance is not a fluke.  He is showing the normal signs of progression for a very good power hitter early in his MLB career.

Upside against LHP

His splits against right handed and left handed pitching are very interesting.  In his first two seasons, he has posted a reverse split, hitting RHP much better than LHP.  In 2016, he slashed .267/.354/.542 against righties and only .209/.354/.403 against southpaws.  This is not a small sample size issue because he had a similar split in 2015.  In addition, 30 of his 36 home runs have come against righties.  This is an important fact because it is often easier to coach hitters to improve against opposite handed pitching than same handed pitching.  This might mean than Kang’s upside is even higher as he further benefits from MLB caliber coaching and an improved approach against lefties.

What to expect from Kang in 2017

As Kang embarks on his third MLB season, how will he perform?  And more importantly, how will he help the Pirates get back to the postseason?  If Kang is able to play a full season at 100%, then he should be able to improve the Pirate’s production in the 4 and 5 spot in the batting order.  The two tables below reveal Kang’s performance as a 4 and 5 hitter respectively as compared to the Pirates overall performance in those lineup spots.

Kang compared to the Pirates as a whole batting in the 4^th spot-  2016 Statistics

Kang compared to the Pirates as a whole batting in the 5^th spot-  2016 Statistics

This data tells us several things.  First, Kang hit much better in the 5 spot than the 4 spot.  Kang just seems comfortable there, which could be due to many different reasons (we don’t have the space to go into it here).  We should assume that the Pirates can see this data as well and will decide to bat Kang in the 5^th spot.  If he hits home runs at a rate similar to his 2016 rate, then he will hit 37 long balls in 2017.  This will add 15-20 runs to the Pirates total and will likely be worth 3-4 additional wins.  His OBP and BA in the 5^th spot is also better than the Pirates #5 hitters as a whole, which will contribute additional runs, and therefore, wins.  In the end, Kang could end up eclipsing what the Pirates had hoped to get from Pedro Alvarez.  A solid #5 hitter who hits a lot of home runs and strikes out at a high, but acceptable level.

What if?

Let’s assume the Pirates decide to bat Kang 5^th and construct the middle of their lineup based solely on the 2016 performance of their hitters.  The 3-6 hitters for the Pirates would then be Starling Marte, Gregory Polanco, Jung Ho Kang and Andrew McCutchen.  If Polanco ends up batting in front of Kang, then Kang will likely face more left-handed pitching in the later innings of games.  This is one of the weak areas of Kang’s game and he will need to focus on improving in this area during the offseason.  As we’ve discussed before here at Pirates Breakdown, the 2016 version of Andrew McCutchen can be utilized most effectively as a #6 hitter.  Imagine what Kang could do with a hitter like Cutch protecting him in the lineup?

Jung Ho Kang has defied his detractors and excelled in his first two years of MLB action, despite coming back from a very serious injury.  If he continues to perform at this level, and improves against left-handed pitching, he will be an RBI machine in the middle of the Pirates lineup.  He might even be the difference in forcing the Pirates back into the post season.  That is an exciting prospect for Pittsburgh fans to contemplate.