The Saints traded their 4th round pick to go up 15 places with their 3rd round and make it a 2nd round to get Vonn Bell. Later they traded 2 5ths to make sure they got a untapped raw gem from Africa in the 4th. I do like the players very much but I would have addressed a bigger need in Guard. However I would have done that in the 2nd already when the often mocked #1 Guard was in play. Instead they got a Wide Receiver. Trading up and not getting a Guard can be justified by three things. I know a few people who would disagree with me, but here it goes.
The first is that you are sure you want a guy. You’re rating of him is way higher than the current pick on the clock and he will be gone by your next pick. That is what happened when they drafted Vonn Bell. No way he would have been there in round 3. An other element of this is that you think the guys after that have a steep drop in quality. If you have researched a guy but others that are more likely to drop were never really on your radar, you have a real big chance to get a guy that you do not like. You would rather get the guy you know and trust that has a high grade. This is what they did with Onyemata as well.
The second is you have nothing to lose anyway. Two 5th round players are maybes anyway. If you have a prospect you think can be a real contributor, he is worth more than the 2 5ths. Also, though it is true that the Saints do not have much depth, that behind the starters it is pretty trim, they also have a lot of mediocre starters. You’d rather have a guy that can be a star than another “meh” kind of guy.
The last one coincides with the second one. The value of the draft picks. Math! If you look at the average value of each player taken at different positions throughout history the chance of getting a productive or even an impact player in an early round are much bigger than getting a player in a later round. Sean Payton himself said round 7 is for Special Teams.
The drop off is not a straight line but more like a curve. Say a player picked in the end of round 2 has a 50% chance of being the kind of player picked in the end of round 1. A player at the end of round 3 has then a 50% chance of being the kind of player at the end of round 2, etc, etc. If you calculate like this 2 5ths is worth 1 4th. If you now are also convinced the player you have in front of you is worth a 3rd round pick you MUST absolutely do it.
The only argument against trading up is that you as a fan do not know anything about this guy and you think he will be there in a later round. Like we all knew Andrew Billings would possibly be taken in the 1st and Landon Turner would probably be picked in the 4th. Getting Anthony at 31 is a reach. Nobody knows exactly, but I trust the millions poured into scouting.
The other strategy is to draft whomever you guess will be good and hope they work out. If you have 10+ draft picks that is something you easily can do (like the Patriots do). Since the Saints do not have this you can trade up. But be sure the only thing you should not do is draft guys you have high hopes for (like every LB drafted before Anthony). Try to take as safe a pick as you can. And that is what the Saints have been doing for 2 years now and I like it!
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
