Justin Upton Must Stop This Weird Offensive Trend With the Detroit Tigers

It took just about all winter, but outfielder Justin Upton is finally off the market, and he ended up getting everything he was looking for.

This offseason’s free agent class is very deep in talent, but with many organizations prioritizing top-tier pitching, big names like Upton, Yoenis Cespedes and Chris Davis were left unsigned until the middle of January (only Cespedes remains now). Some were even speculating that the 28-year-old could take a one-year deal and re-enter the market next winter to try again.

We found out that wasn’t the case after his camp made a public statement specifically to refute this rumor:

Free agent outfielder Justin Upton is not considering short-term deals. Here's what his agent told @MLB: pic.twitter.com/1sEPTerpJn

— Jesse Sanchez (@JesseSanchezMLB) January 8, 2016

And we found out why on Monday night when the Detroit Tigers agreed to a six-year, $132.75 million contract with one of the top remaining bats on the open market.

This agreement tells us two things:

1. Tigers owner Mike Ilitch wasn’t kidding when he said he “doesn’t care about the money” back when they announced the signing of starting pitcher Jordan Zimmermann:

#Tigers become 2nd team in #MLB history to sign two $100M+ free agents in 1 offseason. My Upton column: https://t.co/D7xfoBYPm0 @FOXSports

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) January 19, 2016

2. No matter how bleak the market looks for a top free agent, there will always be at least one team still willing to award them the money and years they’re in search of.

Now that Upton has landed in the Motor City, it looks like this is best possible scenario for him. It doesn’t seem like a hitter with a .271/.352/.473 career triple slash should be getting paid over $20 million per season, but it makes a little more sense when considering his current track record, age and anticipated future production.

To this point in his big-league career, Upton’s numbers against right-handed pitchers (.805 OPS) are nearly as good as they are against southpaws (.886 OPS), his road numbers aren’t much different than his home numbers, and despite some thinking his play diminishes following the All-Star break, his career OPS is actually slightly higher in the second half (.833) than the first half (.819).

The biggest head-scratcher is how he inexplicably has disappeared at the plate for a month or two over the past three seasons. Every hitter goes through peaks and valleys, but when the same pattern presents itself over a number of years, it’s definitely something to pay attention to.

This trend started in 2013 with the Atlanta Braves, when it only appeared to be just a bad two-month slump Upton had to work himself through following a hot start. We wouldn’t have thought very much of this if it didn’t re-appear in 2014 and 2015, though.

First, let’s take a look at his slugging percentage and OPS (on-base plus slugging) from month-to-month during the ’13 season:

When looking at the above numbers, don’t forget that the league average for OPS is normally around .710 and above average is greater than .800, according to FanGraphs.

In March and April, it would’ve been real tough to find a slugger hotter than Upton, who collected 17 extra-base hits (including 12 homers) and 16 walks through the beginning of May. Once calendar flipped, though, that’s when he fell on hard times. After those two rough months, the law of averages went into effect and his overall numbers looked like they always have throughout his young career. This was no big deal though, right? I mean, slumps happen to everyone.

Slumps do find even the best of hitters, but the late-spring/early-summer struggles returned for Upton in Atlanta during the 2014 season.

Getting off to a hot start wasn’t a problem with the Braves, but sustaining that production, or at least not heading to the other end of the spectrum after the hot streak subsided was. As you can see, the midseason slump wasn’t as drastic or pronounced as it was in 2013. Outside of a bad month of June and a lackluster finish to the season, Upton produced like a middle-of-the-order power hitter should.

Taking a look at that month-by-month production between those two seasons shouldn’t raise any eyebrows…until it continued with the San Diego Padres in 2015, which was the worst slump of all.

Upton didn’t start the year on fire like he did the previous two, but he was producing consistently at an above-average pace, making general manager A.J. Preller momentarily look like a genius for acquiring him. But then, he practically fell off the face of the Earth in June and July.

Those two months also included a batting average that settled in below .200.

As you can tell, his production eventually came back to normal, but the damage was already done. It was too little, too late for a Padres team that fell incredibly short of the tremendous expectations they set for themselves.

Whether you believe this is a concerning trend or not, it’s still something that’s mysteriously happened around the same time for each of the last three seasons. Plus, it has me super interested to see if it continues this year.

Are Mike Ilitch and the Tigers making a mistake by opting for Upton instead of Cespedes? There are pros and cons to signing each player and risk is always prevalent when talking about nine-digit contracts, but there’s one big difference for Upton this season: He doesn’t have to be “the man” in the lineup.

While in Atlanta and San Diego, he had some support and protection around him, but he was the featured big bopper and was expected to perform like one. You know, the kind of hitter that can put a team on their back and carry them through the dog days of summer when others can’t.

Kind of like what Cespedes did for the Mets last August.

This trend could mean nothing at all, or it could mean something, but it’s certainly something to keep an eye on. To this point in his career, it doesn’t appear that Upton can shoulder that type of responsibility because of those mid-season swoons. Now that he’ll be with Detroit, he doesn’t have to worry about it, though.

There’s some guy named Miguel Cabrera who occupies the three-hole and holds that title of featured big bopper. Plus, J.D. Martinez is also still around and the organization is hoping for a bounce-back campaign from Victor Martinez.

Upton now gets to be more of a complimentary piece, which is crazy to say about a $130-million player, but it’s true. If he goes through a rough stretch at the plate, there are at least two or three other hitters around him ready to pick up the slack, which could also make his slumps more abbreviated than in the past. Upton didn’t really have that available at his previous stops. At least, he didn’t have guys surrounding him with these kinds of recent track records, while also living up them.

Landing in Detroit appears to be a big win for Upton and his future production. He did get his big payday without being forced to deal with free agency again next winter, and should fit nicely into his projected offensive role. At least, that’s what Ilitch and the Tigers are expecting.

This is his best chance to put an end to what’s turned into a weird trend in recent years. Soon enough, we’ll find out if he can finally make it a distant memory and help Detroit get over the hump and back into the playoffs after a disappointing last place finish.

Thanks for reading! Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter so we can get through a winter without baseball together: @mmusico8.