As the calendar turns to 2017, Pirates Breakdown returns to “Keep or Trade”, a series of articles that examines the merits of each of the Pittsburgh Pirates starting position players and compares them to other players that may be available in the free agent or trade market.
The goal of this series is to ultimately answer the question “should the Pittsburgh Pirates keep them or trade them?”
Late last year we reviewed the starting catcher, Francisco Cervelli. Today, we turn our attention to first basemen John Jaso and Josh Bell (David Freese will be reviewed later as a third baseman).
Jaso Signing
John Jaso was signed to a two-year, $8M deal by the Pirates in last year’s offseason. At the time, Jaso was touted as a potential lead-off hitter with a high on base percentage (OBP) against right handed pitching. Jaso started off hot, with a .389 OBP in April and more walks (9) than strikeouts (8). However, the demands of a long season took their toll and he dropped back to .353 for the year, which is more in line with his career OBP of .359.
Bell Makes his Debut
Josh Bell tore up AAA pitching in 2016, slashing .295/.382/.468 and earning his way to the big leagues in July of 2016. He reached base in his first four major league at bats and one of them was a memorable grand slam against the Chicago Cubs. Bell is a natural outfielder, but started working on his skills at first base a couple of years ago. He’s got work to do on defense, but shows all the signs of a young player who learns quickly. Bell will have time to learn as he is not slated to become a free agent until 2023.
Hitting Knowns and Unknowns.
With John Jaso’s bat, what you see is what you get. Although he got out of the gates quickly, Jaso settled in to a 2016 season where he hit .268/.353/.413 with 36 extra-base hits. He actually was better than this versus RHP with a batting average of .281. His overall average took a hit due to a 1 for 20 performance in limited action against lefties. Later in the season, Jaso was getting most of his at-bats as a pinch hitter, and he performed admirably in this role, going 8 for 25 with 2 walks. Since 2012, Jaso has delivered results in a narrow range, with a batting average between .264 and .286 and wins above replacement (WAR) values between 1.0 and 1.6. His numbers against LHP have always been weak, which makes him a platoon partner at best and a classic left-handed bench bat at worst.
[perfectpullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]With John Jaso’s bat, what you see is what you get.[/perfectpullquote]If Jaso is a known quantity, Josh Bell is almost a complete unknown. It would be easy to extrapolate his fast start in 2016 into an amazing offensive threat, but this would be misguided. Bell finished the year with more playing time at first base, which coincided with a drop-off in his performance at the plate. September 2016 was his first month playing almost every day and his slash line of .258/.333/.360 shows a typical slump that most rookie hitters must endure as opposing pitchers figure out ways to get them out. Interestingly, Bell’s full year stats of .278/.368/.406 are very Jaso-like. All is not gloom and doom though as Bell managed to walk 21 times against only 19 strikeouts and hit 3 home runs. If he keeps his strikeout rates low, he will buy himself a lot of time to develop as a hitter. The simple fact is, after only 128 ABs in the big leagues, no one really knows what kind of hitter Josh Bell will become.
Defensive Perceptions?
When Jaso was signed, much was made about the fact that he had spent the bulk of his career as a catcher and DH. He would have to learn 1B in a trial-by-fire scenario. By almost all accounts, Jaso performed outstandingly well on defense, making only 5 errors on 800 chances. He was rated as -1.9 defensive WAR (dWAR) but don’t let that fool you. It is hard for a first baseman to post a strong dWAR. Paul Goldschmidt was rated as -0.6 and Joey Votto -2.4! All in all, Jaso out-performed defensive expectations by a significant margin.
[perfectpullquote align=”left” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=””]The Pirates coaching staff obviously has a lot more video to review than just Bell’s MLB games and every one of them speaks guardedly about Bell’s defense.[/perfectpullquote]Josh Bell, on the other hand, made 3 errors in only 174 chances. He did make some spectacular diving stops, but he also seemed tentative about pursuing some balls that were clearly his to get. His defense is not bad, but still very raw, especially when it comes to decision making about when to go for the ball and when to cover first. In this respect, John Jaso and David Freese both look much more natural at the position. The Pirates coaching staff obviously has a lot more video to review than just Bell’s MLB games and every one of them speaks guardedly about Bell’s defense. And remember, this is the same coaching staff that worked with Pedro Alvarez. Based on this, he must still need a lot of work.
Intangibles and Injuries
Neither Jaso or Bell offers much in the way of evidence that they could be a clubhouse leader, although in Bell’s case, he wouldn’t be expected to as a rookie. In some cases, Jaso seemed to get down on himself and mope around the dugout, which never sits well with the other players. Jaso did not spend much time on the DL with the Pirates, but he had significant stints with his previous clubs. He was injured on opening day in 2015 with the Tampa Bay Rays and didn’t play again until July 7th. The prior year he suffered concussion-like symptoms as a catcher and did not play after August 23rd. Jaso is definitely an injury risk and the Pirates would be wise to take this into account. Bell’s early career has not been marred by injury and at the young age of 24, time is on his side.
Other Options
If the Pirates decide to trade Josh Bell or John Jaso, they already have a capable 1B replacement in David Freese. In fact, it is likely that Freese will spend significant time manning first base in 2017, probably sharing the duties with Bell. Clint Hurdle has already intimated that Freese would relieve Bell in late innings when the Pirates have a lead, much like Sean Rodriguez did for Pedro Alvarez. The Pirates also have Will Craig in the minors. Craig is a third baseman by experience, but will get significant AAA reps at first base in 2017. Because of this depth, the Pirates are in an enviable position of being able to trade either Jaso or Bell or both. Yes, the fan base will be upset if Josh Bell is traded, but the team will weather the trade just fine. As we detailed, Jaso doesn’t have a lot of upside or downside, therefore he doesn’t bring much trade value beyond his 1 year contract. Bell, on the other hand, is a prized prospect with interest from many teams. A trade involving Josh Bell could bring much-needed starting pitching talent into the Pirates organization.
The free agent market is not full of first basemen looking for a home. Mitch Moreland just signed with the Red Sox. Of those remaining, Brandon Moss and Mark Reynolds are the most likely free agent fits for the Pirates. Moss made $8.25M with the St. Louis Cardinals last season. He is a left-handed hitting strikeout machine that bangs out a lot of home runs. His 28 dingers last season was an impressive feat in only 464 plate appearances. The Pirates will probably not seriously consider Moss as he will likely remind them of the failed Pedro Alvarez experiment.
Mark Reynolds is a much more pedestrian hitter, although he did slash .282/.356/.450 with the Colorado Rockies last year. He is 32 years old and makes only $2.6M. Part of the reason for his lower salary is his drop-off in power in the last few years. From 2008 through 2013, he hit over 20 home runs per year with a peak of 44 in 2009 (it should be noted that during that timeframe he also lead the National League in strikeouts for four straight years). Since 2013, his strikeouts have dropped a bit but so have his home runs. Given the Pirates penchant for bargain hunting, they may take a look at Reynolds.
Conclusion: Keep Jaso as a bench bat, Trade Bell for starting pitching
As long as Jaso is used a left-handed bat off the bench, his value is commensurate with his salary. He will not bring much in the way of trade value and he is only under team control for one more season. He knows the Pirates organization now and seems willing to work hard to learn new positions. The logical path is to keep him for another season.
Josh Bell is perhaps the best hitting prospect in the Pirates organization, however his future is unclear. His small sample of offensive stats are better than anything Gregory Polanco has ever put up, but he is also no Starling Marte – at least not yet. If you weigh Josh Bell’s potential in one hand and a known quality starting pitcher like Jose Quintana in the other, it doesn’t seem like much of a contest. The Pirates could really improve their team right now and not give up many years of control (Quintana has 4, Bell has 6). There isn’t much to pick from in the free agent or trade market, but the Pirates are well stocked with respectable hitters who can man first base. For these reasons, Josh Bell should be a piece in a potential trade to bring more starting pitching to Pittsburgh.
[catposts]Image Credit – Flickr Creative Commons
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