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| KEVIN MILLAR / SURVIVINGGRADY.COM |
The Sunday Boston Globe had a tidbit in their Baseball Notes section about Kevin Millar. Millar unsurprisingly would like to return to Boston as a bench player filling in at first base, left field, and right field. Millar feels that he could be a positive presence in the clubhouse. I’m inclined to agree.
We all know how important Millar was to the Red Sox in 2003 and 2004. In 2005, unfortunately, Kevin Millar changed. As Bob Kraft warned John Henry prior to 2005, “winning breeds contempt.” Kevin Millar felt that he was obligated to a starting job, that no one should hold him accountable, that he was a linchpin of the World Series win and should be treated as so. His energizing presence and “Cowboy Up!” and “Idiot!” slogans in 2003 and 2004 became “F— Them, All We Have Is Each Other” in 2005. The Red Sox dumped Kevin Millar after a subpar season with the bat (9/22/05 article by Zach) and his mouth.
Things have changed. Kevin Millar signed a one-year deal with the Baltimore Orioles, and hit .272/.374/.437, which is misleading, but we’ll get there in a minute. Millar was credited for helping fuse together a fractured Baltimore clubhouse due in large part to Miguel Tejada figuring out that money does not trump winning. As Tejada’s mood worsened all year, Millar was vainly trying to keep the clubhouse happy. While Millar did a tremendous job, he was never able to fuse the clubhouse together.
Millar prides himself on being a clubhouse leader as well as contributing with the bat. The Red Sox had a more professional attitude in the clubhouse, and while there were no whispers of a fractious clubhouse, seemed a bit too uptight at times. This is a game. It’s also a business, yes, but the corporate suffocation emanating from the Yankees is starting to emanate from Yawkey Way’s clubhouse, after having been confined to just the front office.
Kevin Millar would be signing this contract to return to where he’s always wanted to be: Boston. He would sign this contract knowing full well that he would, at best, be a platoon player. He would sign this contract knowing that (in his opinion) it is far better to play on the bench in Boston than start in Baltimore or some other city who has yet to figure out what a winning environment entails.
Millar could become a backup outfielder and first baseman with some pop, and I’d like to see this happen. However, it can’t happen as the team is currently constructed because Kevin Youkilis, Mike Lowell, Manny Ramirez, and Wily Mo Pena are all right-handers. Kevin Millar is a right-hander.
To find Millar at-bats, we would need to insert a left-hander in there somewhere. Millar is not bad enough to waste away on the bench, but not good enough to start. If we get a lefty hitter in one of these positions (even if this lefty can hit left-handed pitching well), Millar could start occasionally versus lefties, where he’s succeeded his entire career. Against lefties, Millar is .285/.368/.447 with an .815 OPS. He is certainly better against righties than lefties, but he more than holds his own against lefties.
Millar got off to a very slow start in 2006. The first half saw a line of .248/.356/.376. This is the Kevin Millar we were getting to know in 2005. After the All-Star Break, something happened. Millar hit. A .299/.394/.505 line is something to behold. He hit this line while assuming less of a role on the Orioles as the Orioles slowly conceded any shot of the playoffs. He played in 71 games in the first half, and 61 in the second.
The General Manager of the Cincinatti Reds, Wayne Krivsky, spent 11 years as the Assistant General Manager of the Minnesota Twins. He firmly believes in contact hitting and no strikeouts. The Cincinatti Reds prior to Krivsky’s arrival were deep in power and strikeouts. Wily Mo Pena, Felipe Lopez, and Austin Kearns, hitters who struck out more than 100 times for the Reds in 2005, have already been moved.
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| ADAM DUNN / RED-HOT-MAMA.COM |
Adam Dunn has been linked in trade rumors for several years now, and this year is looking like this is the year he could be moved. Dunn, a first baseman and left fielder, hit .234/.365/.490 this past season for a .855 OPS, and has a career of an .892 OPS. He had two straight seasons of OPS’ over .900 and would have had a third if he did not hit for a .700 OPS in August and .598 in September.
Dunn strikes out a … ton. He K’d a staggering 194 times in 2006, and if the Red Sox acquired him, there’s no doubt that in late August of 2007, I’d be writing an article about how every time he struck out I gouged my eyes out repeatedly.
Nevertheless, his plate disclipine and power (HR total by year: 19, 26, 27, 46, 40, 40) make this an intriguing thought. Dunn, who has played first 108 times in his career (854 games total) could make the adjustment to first should the Red Sox acquire him. I’m not going to delve into who the Red Sox would have to send Cincinatti’s way, but the Red Sox would have to move Mike Lowell – and it’s possible he could be moved to the Los Angeles Angels or San Diego Padres.
Dunn will likely never hit for average (lifetime .245, and has hit as high as .266, so that’s what I’d suggest for his average if he moved to the American League) so we would have to content ourselves with his career Isolated Eye of a staggering .135 (Youkilis is at .104 and Abreu at .110) and his career .512 Slugging Percentage. Dunn’s career stats against righties come out to a .911 OPS, and .852 against lefties, which would afford Kevin Millar some (but not a lot) of playing time.
In addition, Adam Dunn is known as a clubhouse presence. As Lonnie Wheeler muses trading Dunn, he mentions that Dunn is “funniest, most self-effacing fellow in the Cincinnati clubhouse.”
Dunn would make $10.5 million next year, which tips the scales in favor of the Red Sox, for the Sox are a big market team. Trading Mike Lowell would mean the Red Sox only take on $1.5 million extra.
To give some measure of what the Reds may look in return for Dunn, Wheeler poses the questions of who they could get:
What, then, is his trade value? Is it the handsome sum of all the above, or what our eyes and exasperation tell us after six unfulfilling seasons?
Is it a starting pitcher who can stand next to Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo? An end-game reliever who can allow Todd Coffey, Gary Majewski, Bill Bray and Matt Belisle to come along in more comfortable roles? An outfielder with a package more complete? A starting shortstop?
It’s highly likely that if the Reds did call up the Red Sox about Adam Dunn, the price would be too high. In addition, we would certainly have to sacrifice young pitching – such as Craig Hansen, Manny Delcarmen … unless Theo pulls the wool over Krivsky’s eyes. Is it worth it to sacrifice one of these young pitchers to acquire Adam Dunn? Are we so in debt to the need of pitching that we have to automatically dismiss any trade acquisition resulting in the loss of a pitcher? I don’t know.
If Adam Dunn becomes available, the Red Sox should look into it. If Kevin Millar asks Boston to return as a bench player, the Red Sox should seriously consider it.
I am fully aware the Red Sox have problems. They have pitching problems, first and foremost. However, you cannot just concentrate on pitching. When you have a chance to improve somewhere, regardless of what position that is, you explore the opportunities there. In addition, if we traded Mike Lowell, perhaps we get a top pitcher in return (Scott Linebrink from San Diego?) and there’s where we are: Linebrink in the bullpen, Youkilis at third, and Dunn at first.
Let me just leave you with the 3-4-5-6 lineup of 2007 if Adam Dunn was a Red Sox:
DH David Ortiz
LF Manny Ramirez
1B Adam Dunn
RF Wily Mo Pena
Fireworks.
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