Like the whirligig of time, the chess game between coaches has its revenges. Don’t expect Cal or Oregon to go purely with what worked and didn’t work last year. There will be wrinkles to the wrinkles on both sides, but the principles of sound and successful football remain the same. Take care of the football. Win the individual matchups. As ESPN’s Trevor Matich put it, win the confrontations of speed in space.
Last year Cal committed hard to stoppng LaMichael James, giving their front seven one simple assignment: cut off the tailback, be athletic and fly to the football. They did, with enormous success. They held Oregon to their lowest point total of the season, just 2.9 yards a carry on the ground, and a paltry 151 yards through the air. In Berkeley, paced by a brilliant scheme and three star players who are now in the NFL, they frustrated and dominated the Ducks, but only for three quarters. In the fourth quarter Chip Kelly gathered his offense around them and told them to go on the drive of their lives. And they did, holding the football for the last 9:25 of the game, 18 beautifully-executed and determined plays, taking a knee at the Cal 12 to end the game. One touchdown each by Cliff Harris and Jeff Maehl, and all the rest was a triumph of will on a miserable night.
photo left: Jeff Tedford once wore the genius label as an over-achieving mastermind who raised the profile of Cal football. Since then, several late season collapses have tarnished that image. But he always saves his best work for the Ducks. (espn.com photo.)
Tomorrow will be much different. The Bears are game but missing three stars, and the game is in Autzen where the Ducks play their most inspired football. It’s a party on national TV, with Oregon reintroducing itself into the college football conversation and the Heisman Trophy race. Cal couldn’t beat Washington in Seattle and struggled with Fresno State and Colorado. Provided the Ducks have prepared properly, this will be a night of pushups, foghorns and jubilation in the student section.
To win, Oregon has to accomplish a few simple goals:
Give LaMichael James a chance to be great.
LMJ is now, statistically, the sixth-best back in conference history. He can close in on the remaining five with a healthy chunk of yards versus Clancy Pendergast’s defense, but it won’t be easy. The Bears are giving up just 78.2 yards a game on the ground, and held Chris Polk to 60 yards on 20 carries. That’s stingy. Their two inside linebackers, seniors Michael Kendricks and DJ Holt, 6-0, 240 and 6-2 242, have a combined 63 tackles in the first four games. They’re agile and tough, giving their front seven the authoritive physical presence the Ducks are seeking from Alonso and Stuckey. The front three of of the Cal 3-4 features 6-3, 280 defensive end Trevor Guyton, who has two sacks already this season, and 6-2, 285 Kendrick Payne lined up on Hroniss Grasu’s nose.
A big, active, agile 3-4 is the toughest matchup for Oregon’s spread. It’s an attacking defense, athletic and aggressive, part of the reason they contained the Webfoots so effectively last year. Steve Greatwood’s offensive line has to give LaMichael some creases and lanes, and prevent any more than a handful of plays where they’re standing up fat and sheepish while the Bears pounce three yards deep in the backfield. Give James a chance, and he’ll gain yards on any defense. Lots of them. But Carson York, Grasu, Nick Cody, Mark Asper and Darrion Weems have to get their lids into the chest of the white-jerseyed Bears and bust some sternums. James can’t beat them 1-on-11, not every play. Yet there are times he does exactly that. If the o-line wins their share of the matchups at the point of attack, the nation’s best running back can show the country why he IS the Heisman conversation. Give him room to run, and amazing things will happen, a few fans have never seen in their lives, watching a remarkable talent on a national stage.
Be effective in the downfield passing game
Cal got away with a hyper-aggressive strategy last year, crashing safety Chris Conte hard into the box to challenge Darron Thomas on the keep. Last year in Bezerkley Thomas had his worst game of the year. He couldn’t run or pass effectively; his receivers weren’t getting out of the grasp of Cal defenders as he managed just 155 yards on 51.7% passing. Running mostly backwards and sideways, he carried the ball 16 times for 34 yards, with a long gain of 11 yards. James got stuffed when he gave, and he couldn’t find a crease or a corner when he kept.
Connecting downfield will cure those ills. If DT can get his timing going with Rahsaan Vaughn, LT and Josh Huff, and his twin tight ends, David Paulson and Colt Lyerla, plus freshman sensation and X factor De’Anthony Thomas, the Cal defense has to respect the pass. The linebackers have to stay a step deeper. The crashing safety will be missed in the deep middle. Oregon needs balance in this game to divide the attention of Cal’s athletic defensive playmakers, and punish them if they overcommit to the run. The Ducks chances for a decisive, message-sending victory go way up if Darron Thomas has a good night throwing the football and operating the offense. If he can get his rhythm early and stay sharp, Cal won’t keep up.
Cliff Harris gets off the milk carton
Cal has two tall, fast receivers in Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones, and the Bears like to get them the ball in a variety of ways: on the fly sweep/end around, the bubble screen, and deep off play action. The two have combined for 53 catches, 873 yards and 6 tds, and no one else in the Bear offense has more than six receptions. Harris has been so quiet and so much a nonfactor after a suspension and time in the doghouse that he’s dropped off Mel Kiper’s “Big Board,” the projected top 25 of next spring’s NFL draft. Kash has just four tackles and two pass breakups for the season, and no interceptions.
With Cal dependent on these two standout wide receivers for a big chunk of their offense, it’s a good week for Harris and senior defensive backfield mate Anthony Gildon to assert themselves as cover corners. They need to win this matchup and make a couple of impact plays. Like most good defenses, Oregon thrives on forcing mistakes and creating turnovers, and the turnovers haven’t been coming so far in 2011. With ESPN bringing the production trucks and the HD cameras to Autzen, Harris has a chance to make news for the right reasons, and redeem what so far has been a lost season for him.
Limit big plays
Oregon’s defense, maligned by many for underperforming in the statistics, doesn’t get enough credit for some things they do well. They give Oregon’s offense a good chance to win games. They give a low average per play, about 5.2 yards. And they don’t give up many big plays. Cal doesn’t have the bruising, dangerous I formation tailback they had in the past. This year’s starter Isi Sofele is just 5-7, 188, rushing for 380 yards and a 4.8 average. They’ve only completed two passes to him all season, for a total of 29 yards. It’s a long way from a succession of backs opponents had to fear, Best, Forsett, Lynch, Arrington, and Vereen, all 1,000-yard rushers who made the Cal play action game so dangerous. Sofele’s not a gamebreaker, and the Ducks can’t turn him into one, and they have to contain Allen and Jones. Do that, and the Bear offense can’t get up and down the field often enough to keep up with Chip Kelly’s offensive machine in Autzen stadium
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