Over the weekend, the Seattle Mariners improved their record from 11-17 to 14-17 with a three game sweep of the Oakland A’s. Capping off the sweep was another brilliant performance from Felix Hernandez. Hernandez became the first pitcher in the AL this year to win 6 games and, on a more historical note, became the fourth youngest pitcher in MLB history to record 2,000 strike outs. Only Bert Blylevan, Sam McDowell, and Walter Johnson achieved the feat at a younger age.
King Felix has been putting up some amazing numbers this season, even for him. After seven starts, he is 6-0 with a 1.85 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 50 K in 48.2 innings. Opponents are only batting .191 against him and he’s only allowed 4.4% of hitters to walk. Perhaps the most amazing statistic though for the season is his strand rate. On those rare occasions that a batter does reach base, Hernandez has left 88.5% of them on base.
To put an 88.5% LOB rate in perspective, Hernandez’s own personal best for an entire season is 77.4% in 2010, the year he won the Cy Young. And in what might possibly have been the greatest pitching performance in the modern era, Pedro Martinez with the Boston Red Sox in 2000 had a LOB of 86.6%, a full two percentage points lower than what Felix has done so far.
Now, there are plenty of signs pointing to regression for Hernandez. Compared to his 1.85 ERA, his FIP, or fielding independent pitching, is 2.85. FIP is a measurement that looks only at home runs allowed, strike outs, walks, and batters hit, in an effort to measure the effectiveness of a pitcher independent of the defense.
A new metric developed by Baseball Prospectus, called DRA, or deserved run average, which takes into account virtually every conceivable action on the field and when it happened in relationship to other actions, places Hernandez at 3.45, which is still third best in the majors, as is his ERA.
Also, Hernandez’s BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is at a career low of .244, a full .050 lower than his career BABIP and .014 lower than his single season best from last year.
So, while Felix Hernandez is definitely pitching phenomenally, hitters are also getting a little unlucky facing him thus far. But that’s not to say they can’t remain “unlucky” over the course of the season. Believe it or not, 32 starts or so is a relatively small sample size, which is why every once in a while fans get to see an historic season.
It’s likely Mariners fans will see some regression back to an already amazing mean for Felix, but it’s also possible we may be roughly a third of the way into one of the greatest pitching performances in MLB history. Check back on Saturday when Hernandez takes the mound at Safeco against the Boston Red Sox to see if the magic continues.
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