Knockout Stage: USA vs. Belgium

By Sean Kennedy (@PhillyFastBreak)

Belgium isn’t a nation the average American knows a whole lot about. Sure they’re known for some delicious foods: waffles, chocolate, beer, brussels sprouts. Well, three out of four ain’t bad anyway. However, besides supplying the world with delicious confections, Belgium has also quietly whipped together one of the better soccer teams in the world, ranking 11th in the world in the latest FIFA rankings. Aside from England, the Rode Duivels (Red Devils) have the highest number of players compete in the Premier League for their club teams, with 12 members of the squad plying their trade in the Queen’s country. They also have plenty of top talent from other clubs across Europe, including Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich, and Lille.

Unlike a good portion of the World Cup field, the US should have a good idea what they’re in for, having faced Belgium in a friendly match back in May 2013 in Cleveland. In that contest, Belgium prevailed 4-2 with current World Cup contributors Kevin Mirallas and Marouance Fellaini finding the back of the net for the Rode Duivels, as Clint Dempsey and Geoff Cameron both celebrated goals for the US. An untimely Brad Davis turnover in the middle of the field led to a go-ahead goal for Belgium in the second half, and after Davis’ poor showing against Germany, US fans are likely glad he will not be on the pitch for this latest meeting.

Although Group H was admittedly not the among the strongest in the World Cup field, Belgium did well to win all three of their matches and earn the maximum 9 points in the group stage. The Rode Duivels know they have the personnel to light up the scoreboard against the US, and are confidently seeking to surpass the nation’s previous best of fourth place in World Cup play. So what can the Stars and Stripes do to ensure that doesn’t happen in this year’s tournament? Here are 4 keys to the game for the US:

1) Possess the ball – Per FourFourTwo, at just 39%, the US had the second-worst average possession mark in the group stage, only ahead of Iran. Belgium’s Eden Hazard controlled the ball nearly as much as anyone in the group stage, and the Rode Duivels have a bevy of scoring options that will eventually find back netting if given enough chances. If the US does not draw that possession figure closer to even, it will put far too much pressure on Tim Howard and the back line, spelling disaster.

2) Go to goal – The US should have opportunities in their own attacking area as Belgium may be without two key defenders with Thomas Vermaelen officially out and captain Vincent Kompany doubtful due to injuries. I realize the US was largely playing for the draw against Germany, but they have to greatly ramp up the intensity on that end after managing just 1 shot on goal in the match. Jozy Altidore’s availability should help in that regard, as his coming back into the target-forward position would allow Clint Dempsey to move back to his natural spot where he can wreck the most havoc.

3) Get back in transition – Belgium is not a team that relies on set pieces for their scoring, as all 4 of their goals in the group stage came through open play in transition. The four scores consisted of a header by Fellaini off a cross into the box, an open shot for Dries Mertens on a three-on-two counter-attack, a strike from Divock Origi off a brilliant feed by Hazard (again off the counter), and a rebound by Jan Vertonghen following a whistler from just outside the box by Origi. In this sense, much of the burden falls to the likes of Michael Bradley, Jermaine Jones, and Graham Zusi in the midfield. They have to find the perfect balance between supporting the attack and marking the dangerous Belgium scorers going the other way.

4) Finish strong – All four of Belgium’s goals in the group stage came in the 70th minute or later. The US has obviously had some problems in this area with Ghana tying things up in the 82nd minute before John Brooks’ header saved the day, and of course, the last-second heartbreak in Portugal. I don’t know whether it’s a lag of fitness in the tough Brazilian climate, a drop in fitness, or just plain bad luck, but the Rode Duivels have made a living of wearing out opponents before striking late. The US squad needs to be ready.

Those individuals who handicap games professionally have it being a toss-up whether Belgium wins or not in the first 90 minutes, with the Rode Duivels significant favorites to advance to the quarterfinals when accounting for extra time and penalties as well. No matter what happens this afternoon, I know a significant portion of the American public will find their way to a television at 4:00 pm est. How do you think events are going to transpire?