The good thing about playing Notre Dame twice is that I didn’t have to type out the header again. The Bearcats had an odd schedule quirk where they played all of their mirror opponents at home, and now in the next few weeks they have to visit all 3. That starts tonight against ND. The Bearcats pulled off a victory in the last 2 seconds on a Yancy Gates put back a few weeks ago. The Bearcats held Luke Harangody to 5-20 shooting, and held ND to 58 points, well below their average. Notre Dame was 14-3 when the teams met for the first time, and the Irish have been reeling since. They have dropped 3 of 4, 4 of 5 counting UC, and are 15-7, 4-5 in the Big East. The Bearcats are 14-7 and back on the plus side of the Big East at 5-4. The Bearcats haven’t fared well on the road this season, going 1-5 with the only win at hapless Rutgers. The stars in the first game were Yancy Gates with 11-13, Deonta Vaughn had 15-7 rebounds, Rashad Bishop scored 10, and Darnell Wilks pulled down 8 rebounds. For the Irish, Tim Abromaitis had 16-8, Harangody 14-11, and Tory Jackson poured in 12.
Who will get it done tonight at 9 on ESPN?
All stats taken from KenPom.com, the Polls, and the school’s sites. RPI from RealTimeRPI.com
For reference, there are 347 teams in the NCAA
Record: 14-7 (5-4)
KenPom Rank: 59
RPI: 48
AP/USA Today Rank: NR
Strength of Schedule (KenPom/RealTime): 37/28
Tempo: 67 (214)
Offensive Ratings (Rank)
Points Per Game: 71.6
Efficiency: 106.2 (94)
Effective FG%: 50 (119)
Turnover %: 20.2 (142)
Off. Rebound %: 38 (28)
FTA/FGA: 30.6 (311)
3%: 30.2 (305)
2%: 52.2 (33)
FT%: 63 (316)
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3: 24.8 (219)
2: 59.1 (26)
FT: 16.2 (335)
Defensive Ratings (Rank)
Points Per Game: 64.6
Efficiency: 91 (37)
Effective FG%: 44.9 (35)
Turnover %: 17.6 (317)
Off. Rebound %: 27.5 (16)
FTA/FGA: 34.3 (114)
3%: 32 (82)
2%: 43.3 (33)
Block %: 9.4 (151)
Steal %: 8.2 (282)
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3: 28.3 (131)
2: 51.2 (198)
FT: 20.5 (190)
Statistical Leaders
Points (top 3): Lance Stephenson 12.2 Deonta Vaughn 12 Yancy Gates 10.5
Rebounds (top 3): Yancy Gates 6.7 Lance Stephenson 5.1 Rashad Bishop 4.8
Assists (top 2): Deonta Vaughn 3.5 Lance Stephenson 2.7
Blocks: Yancy Gates 1.1
Record: 15-7 (4-5)
KenPom Rank: 81
RPI: 69
AP/USA Today Rank: NR
Strength of Schedule (KenPom/RealTime): 137/71
Tempo: 67.9 (174)
Offensive Ratings (Rank)
Points Per Game: 79.9
Efficiency: 118.4 (5)
Effective FG%: 54.4 (19)
Turnover %: 15.4 (4)
Off. Rebound %: 35.4 (80)
FTA/FGA: 36.9 (188)
3%: 40.3 (14)
2%: 51.4 (54)
FT%: 71.3 (91)
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3: 29.5 (103)
2: 51 (217)
FT: 19.5 (240)
Defensive Ratings (Rank)
Points Per Game: 72
Efficiency: 105.4 (255)
Effective FG%: 49.8 (217)
Turnover %: 16 (341)
Off. Rebound %: 31.7 (128)
FTA/FGA: 25.5 (9)
3%: 37.1 (303)
2%: 46.9 (148)
Block %: 7.5 (235)
Steal %: 8.2 (287)
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3: 30.9 (56)
2: 53.2 (131)
FT: 16 (331)
Statistical Leaders
Points (top 3): Luke Harangody 24.2 Tim Abromaitis 16.7 Ben Hansbrough 11.7
Rebounds (top 3): Luke Harangody 9.7 Tyrone Nash 5.3 Tim Abromaitis 4.7
Assists (top 2): Tory Jackson 5.7 Ben Hansbrough 5
Blocks: Carleton Scott 1
Comparing the numbers between when the teams first met, it’s clear the Big East has stifled the teams offenses. Notre Dame hasn’t hit the glass as hard, and Cincinnati hasn’t hit the offensive rebounding as hard. UC dominated the offensive glass in the first match up. I think for the Bearcats to win here, they need to work hard to contain the Irish offense like they did in Cincinnati. The Irish are a much better home team than road team, and that is going to work into their advantage tonight. ND is 13-2 at home this season, but did lose to Loyola Marymount. This is an important game for 2 teams who want to make their first NCAA tournament in a couple years. It’s going to come down to execution and rebounding. If Cincinnati can get good point guard play for the 4th game in a row, and anything from Yancy Gates and Steve Toyloy and Darnell Wilks, I think they can win. Abromaitis and Harangody were the only Irish players to really get something going against UC, and that is important tonight. The Bearcats need something more from Lance Stephenson. I don’t know how bad the ankle is, but he can’t disappear like he did against Louisville and some of the Providence game. It goes without saying that we need Deonta Vaughn to play well.
Prediction: I think this is going to be another tight contest down to the wire. Unlike the first game, I don’t see it coming down to the last 2 shots. But I do think the Bearcats take another heartbreaker from the Irish.
Cincinnati 70 Notre Dame 67
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