Know Your Opponent: South Florida Bulls edition

Tonight on ESPNU at 7, the 15-9, 6-6 UC Bearcats hit the road again, this time to Tampa, Florida to play the host 15-9, 5-7 South Florida Bulls. This is the final of the mirror games for Cincinnati, and another sweep would be perfect. The Cats took care of the Bulls 78-70 January 20. Lance Stephenson was injured, causing Jaquan Parker to start and have a career day, going for 15-4-5 in 35 minutes. Parker has played 45 minutes since, and scored 10 points, and probably won’t get any minutes tonight. That’s a shame. Deonta Vaughn went off for 20. UC shot 56% for the game. The Cats held dynamo guard Dominique Jones to 21 points, and it took him 19 shots to get there. But, as you should have seen in the Q&A with AstroBull, USF isn’t the same team. They have won 4 of 6, including wins over Georgetown and Pittsburgh, and get big man Augustus Gilchrist back. For the sake of not spelling that out every time, I’m calling him Gus. Cavalier, I know. The Bearcats are coming off their best road half since maybe the Xavier game. The Bulls have won their last 3 at home, but are just 8-3 for the season. How will this shake out? Let’s look inside the numbers. But first, check out Voodoo 5 for all your USF needs, and an interview with me that USF Athletics said on twitter was “interesting,” and “context for tonight.” Also, check out my interview with him that CNati said “was a good interview that gave a nice state of the Bulls.” You’re welcome America. Numbers, predictions now.

Efficiency: 91.2 (37)

Effective FG%: 45.5 (47)

Turnover %: 17.6 (322)

Off. Rebound %: 28.2 (26)

FTA/FGA: 35.3 (124)

3%: 32.4 (96)

2%: 44 (41)

Block %: 9 (160)

Steal %: 8.2 (289)

Point Distribution (% of total points)

3: 28.1 (126)

2: 51.3 (193)

FT: 20.5 (199)

Statistical Leaders

Points (top 3): Lance Stephenson 12 Deonta Vaughn 11.5  Yancy Gates 10.3

Rebounds (top 3): Yancy Gates 6.5 Lance Stephenson 5.2 Rashad Bishop 4.8

Assists (top 2): Deonta Vaughn 3.5 Lance Stephenson 2.5

Blocks: Yancy Gates 1

Record: 15-9, 5-7

KenPom Rank: 63

RPI: 56

AP/USA Today Rank: NR

Strength of Schedule (KenPom/RealTime): 13/42

Tempo: 65.4 

Offensive Ratings (Rank)

Points Per Game: 68.9

Efficiency: 107.8 (77)

Effective FG%: 48.6 (174)

Turnover %: 18.6 (75)

Off. Rebound %: 34.9 (100)

FTA/FGA: 44.6 (41)

3%: 29.3 (321)

2%: 50.4 (85)

FT%: 67.2 (222)

Point Distribution (% of total points)

3: 19.8 (323)

2: 56.5 (50)

FT: 23.6 (56)

 

Defensive Ratings (Rank)

Points Per Game: 65.6

Efficiency: 93.6 (64)

Effective FG%: 47.1 (98)

Turnover %: 18.6 (280)

Off. Rebound %: 33.7 (210)

FTA/FGA: 34.3 (103)

3%: 32.6 (110)

2%: 46.4 (116)

Block %: 8.5 (191)

Steal %: 10.2 (138)

Point Distribution (% of total points)

3: 25.1 (235)

2: 56.1 (46)

FT: 18.7 (275)

Statistical Leaders

Points (top 3): Dominique Jones 21.6 Gus Gilchrist 17.4 Jarrid Famous 11.6

Rebounds (top 3): Jarrid Famous 7.8 Gus Gilchrist 7 Dominique Jones 6.3

Assists (top 2): Dominique Jones 4.3 Chris Howard 3.6

Blocks: Gus Gilchrist 1.2

Gilchrist adds a whole new level to the USF team. He had 7-4 against Marquette Saturday, but he looks to be a handful for Steve Toyloy and Yancy Gates tonight. Chris Howard had 16-10 against UC the first time, and along with Gilchrist and the electric Jones, we shouldn’t forget about him. Jarrid Famous gave UC some trouble in the first meeting, and Yancy Gates in foul trouble. Toyloy went for 9-8, but those kinds of efforts aren’t really seen from the big man.

This is an important game for these two. As the season winds down, games against teams that are mirror images of you are games you have to win. USF is just as horrible as UC when it comes to shooting 3s, and that’s something we have to keep in check. UC needs to try and get the same high quality looks they got the first time. With Stephenson back in the fold, I think they could. Jaquan Parker played good defense on Jones the first time, and I’m interested to see who ends up on him. The Bearcats can’t let him get off and torch them. I think Jones will end up with 24, Gilchrist 10-5, Famous 15-9, and for UC Stephenson 13-7, Vaughn 15, and Bishop with 11-8. With the effort the Cats gave against UConn, it seems they believe that they can win the tough road games. I hope that carries over tonight. I think USF is going to be game for one of the biggest contests at the Sun Dome in years, but I think UC will be too much.

Prediction: Cincinnati 70 USF 68