The Cincinnati Bearcats look to sweep their 2 game homestand tonight on ESPN2 against the South Florida Bulls. The Bulls beat the Bearcats last year in Tampa, powered by Dominique Jones’ 30 points. Jones is fresh off scoring 20 against Rutgers in the Bulls first Big East win this season. The Bearcats are looking get over .500 once again. This is an important game for the Bearcats. Not because it’s a must win, but because it’s a can’t lose. The Bearcats are starting to get on the NCAA radar if you check out various bracket projections, and a loss against one of the bottom teams in the Big East really hurts your resume. How do the Bearcats match up with the Bulls? Before we take a look at the numbers, be sure to check out Astro’s Bulls Blog. It’s very good, and has all the USF news and views you could ever want.
All stats taken from KenPom.com, the Polls, and the school’s sites. RPI from RealTimeRPI.com
For reference, there are 347 teams in the NCAA
Record: 12-6 (3-3)
KenPom Rank: 55
RPI: 46
AP/USA Today Rank: NR
Strength of Schedule (KenPom): 36
Tempo: 67 (227)
Offensive Ratings (Rank)
Points Per Game: 70.7
Efficiency: 104.2 (116)
Effective FG%: 48.6 (174)
Turnover %: 20.6 (157)
Off. Rebound %: 38.3 (30)
FTA/FGA: 29 (326)
3%: 28.1 (327)
2%: 51.7 (47)
FT%: 64.8 (282)
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3: 23.8 (238)
2: 60 (21)
FT: 16.2 (333)
Defensive Ratings (Rank)
Points Per Game: 62.8
Efficiency: 88.9 (24)
Effective FG%: 43.8 (24)
Turnover %: 18.3 (296)
Off. Rebound %: 26.7 (8)
FTA/FGA: 35.2 (137)
3%: 31.9 (81)
2%: 41.8 (17)
Block %: 9.8 (127)
Steal %: 8.8 (234)
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3: 27.9 (143)
2: 50.8 (211)
FT: 21.3 (148)
Statistical Leaders
Points (top 3): Lance Stephenson 12.2 Deonta Vaughn 11.5 Yancy Gates 10.7
Rebounds (top 3): Yancy Gates 7 Rashad Bishop 4.9 Lance Stephenson 4.8
Assists (top 2): Deonta Vaughn 3.4 Lance Stephenson 2.7
Blocks: Yancy Gates 1.3
Record: 11-6 (1-4)
KenPom Rank: 87
RPI: 99
AP/USA Today Rank: NR
Strength of Schedule (KenPom): 53
Tempo: 66.4 (254)
Offensive Ratings (Rank)
Points Per Game: 67.2
Efficiency: 102.8 (138)
Effective FG%: 49.3 (145)
Turnover %: 21.3 (190)
Off. Rebound %: 34.6 (115)
FTA/FGA: 45.4 (31)
3%: 30.7 (283)
2%: 50.8 (72)
FT%: 66.7 (229)
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3: 22.1 (286)
2: 54.5 (107)
FT: 23.5 (61)
Defensive Ratings (Rank)
Points Per Game: 62.6
Efficiency: 92.5 (50)
Effective FG%: 44.9 (45)
Turnover %: 20.3 (195)
Off. Rebound %: 33.7 (199)
FTA/FGA: 32.3 (78)
3%: 30.6 (48)
2%: 44.4 (67)
Block %: 8.9 (176)
Steal %: 10.4 (129)
Point Distribution (% of total points)
3: 25.1 (227)
2: 56.3 (55)
FT: 18.6 (267)
Statistical Leaders
Points (top 3): Dominique Jones 19.5 Jarrid Famous 11 Chris Howard 9.1
Rebounds (top 3): Jarrid Famous 7.9 Dominique Jones 5.9 Toarlyn Fitzpatrick 5.3
Assists (top 2): Dominique Jones 4.2 Chris Howard 3.9
Blocks: Toarlyn Fitzpatrick 0.9
The Bulls can’t really be talked about without noting that star big man Augustus Gilchrist has a bum ankle and has missed all of Big East play. The Bulls have been overmatched without him in conference, getting blown out by everyone but Notre Dame and Rutgers. The teams that beat them were Louisville, West Virginia and Syracuse, so there’s no real shame there. The Bearcats key has to be containing Jones. He is the Bulls star and has gone off lately. After being in foul trouble and scoring 5 at Louisville, he put up 26, 30, 28 and 20. Jarrid Famous has helped make up for the Gilchrist slack, but Yancy Gates needs to have a big game. We are probably going to see Larry Davis start the game on Jones, and I would bet everyone from Lance Stephenson to Rashad Bishop to my best friend Dion Dixon would guard him. The Cats should be able to win this game. The Bulls play good defense, especially on the perimeter. UC can’t shoot deep, and really need to pound the ball inside. I think that will happen tonight. I see Gates going for 18-9, Stephenson for 15-6-3, and Deonta Vaughn tossing in 14. I also see Jones putting up 22 in a losing effort.
Prediction: Cincinnati 69 South Florida 60
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