Know Your Opponent: West Virginia Mountaineers edition

Saturday at 2 pm the Cincinnati Bearcats start the 3 game gauntlet to end the regular season, by heading to Morgantown to play West Virginia. West Virginia is a really good team, and they have a coach that we are familiar with. The Mountaineers have been good at home, 11-2, while Cincinnati has struggled on the road, 2-7. Cincinnati hasn’t beaten a team ahead of them in the standings this season. The Bearcats haven’t lost to WVU the last 2 seasons, and hopefully that will give them the confidence that they need to prevail. The Bearcats have been mighty inconsistent this season, and it’s going to be crucial for Lance Stephenson and Yancy Gates, coming off career best performances, to match their play from Wednesday. West Virginia is coming off a tough loss against UConn that Da’Sean Butler said they played 8 on 5. The Mountaineers have dropped 3 of 5, and it would be big for the Bearcats, who have dropped 4 of 6, to add to that. This game has the chance to define a season. It could be the win that gets West Virginia back on track. It could be the win that starts a UC run through the last 3 games. It’s going to be a confidence builder for one of the two teams. Before we see how they match up, take a look at The Smoking Musket. It’s a good West Virginia blog. Yes, I’m surprised that they can use computers in West Virginia just as much as you are. Let’s number it up.

Efficiency: 93 (48)

Effective FG%: 46.1 (63)

Turnover %: 17.5 (320)

Off. Rebound %: 28.5 (28)

FTA/FGA: 35.1 (122)

3%: 33.1 (120)

2%: 44.2 (48)

Block %: 8.5 (189)

Steal %: 8.1 (297)

Point Distribution (% of total points)

3: 28.3 (126) 

2: 51 (197)

FT: 20.7 (193)

Statistical Leaders

Points (top 3): Lance Stephenson 11.5 Deonta Vaughn 11.2 Yancy Gates 10.6

Rebounds (top 3): Yancy Gates 6.3 Lance Stephenson 5 Ibrahima Thomas 4.9 

Assists (top 2): Deonta Vaughn 3.5 Lance Stephenson 2.4 

Blocks: Yancy Gates 1

Record: 21-6, 10-5

KenPom Rank: 8

RPI: 5

AP/USA Today Rank: 8/7

Strength of Schedule (KenPom/RealTime): 1/3

Tempo: 64.7 (286)

Offensive Ratings (Rank)

Points Per Game: 74.7

Efficiency: 119.4 (4)

Effective FG%: 50.1 (118)

Turnover %: 18.1 (53)

Off. Rebound %: 42.6 (1)

FTA/FGA: 37.8 (167)

3%: 35 (129)

2%: 48.8 (134)

FT%: 68.7 (180)

Point Distribution (% of total points)

3: 29.3 (107)

2: 50.1 (232)

FT: 20.6 (193)

Defensive Ratings (Rank)

Points Per Game: 64.6

Efficiency: 90.9 (32)

Effective FG%: 48.1 (139)

Turnover %: 21.4 (111)

Off. Rebound %: 31.3 (109)

FTA/FGA: 40.5 (236)

3%: 33.1 (123)

2%: 47.4 (152)

Block %: 11.6 (60)

Steal %: 9.2 (217)

Point Distribution (% of total points)

3: 24.4 (262)

2: 53.4 (127)

FT: 22.2 (115)

Statistical Leaders

Points (top 3): Da’Sean Butler 17.2 Kevin Jones 13.6 Devin Ebanks 12.3

Rebounds (top 3): Devin Ebanks 8.5 Kevin Jones 7.7 Da’Sean Butler 6.1 

Assists (top 2): Da’Sean Butler 3.2 Darryl ‘Truck’ Bryant 3.1

Blocks: Kevin Jones 1

As you can plainly see, West Virginia is really good. The Bearcats have to take advantage of the fact that the Mountaineers foul a lot. This may be a good strategy against the Bearcats though, 14-32 against DePaul put them in the bottom 13 in the nation in free throw percentage. I think the Bearcats have a real shot to win this game. I also think that West Virginia has a real shot at blowing out boys out. The game is going to come down to Cincinnati’s offensive execution. They can’t afford to have lulls against a team that can make you pay like the Mountaineers can. The defense needs to be top notch. It’s far too late in the season to be inconsistent and to be talking about the teams inconsistency. It’s put up or shut up time. West Virginia is standing in the way of the Bearcats making a run to the NCAA tournament. WVU is an obstacle that needs to be overcome. It’s not going to be easy. Da’Sean Butler, Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks are some of the best players in the Big East. Deonta Vaughn, Lance Stephenson and Yancy Gates can be. Tomorrow, we need them to be. 

This late in the season, it’s all about who wants it more. The Bearcats need this win more for their tournament chances. The Mountaineers need this win to right the wobbly boat they are currently on. I think this has all the makings of another solid Big East game. I’m going heart over head in my prediction, even though I probably shouldn’t. 

Prediction: Cincinnati 73 West Virginia 71