The Pittsburgh Pirates are currently in the middle of the dog days of the off-season. Most of the big players have signed and a lot of the players left on the market would be value signings. There are obviously some marquee position players still out there, but the pitching market features a lot of bounce-back candidates and question mark-type pitchers.
MLB Trade Rumors recently published a list of the remaining free agent starting pitchers and most Pirates’ fans are all in on either Doug Fister or Mat Latos, I find one other name very intriguing and it may surprise you.
Kyle Lohse is coming off a fairly disastrous 2015 season with the Milwaukee Brewers. He went 5-13 with a 5.85 ERA, 5.12 FIP, and a ludicrously high 1.46 WHIP. Lohse is also going to be in his age 37 season, not exactly the prime for a starting pitcher, but there is some reason for optimism. In the proceeding four seasons, Lohse was tremendous with a 3.28ERA and a 3.80 FIP. He’s been a pitcher with a fairly solid track record and despite the bad 2015, there were signs that he could turn it around in 2016.
Lohse was demoted to the bullpen in early August and from that point on, he pitched very well. He threw up a 2.50 ERA and allowed only five runs in 19 relief innings, not exactly a huge sample size, but definitely an encouraging end to the season for a guy that lost his starting job for a rebuilding Brewers ball club.
Another encouraging sign that Lohse could be a good bounce-back candidate in 2016 is that his xFIP, which takes both fielding independent pitching and park factor into account, was 4.48, nothing incredible, but not nearly as disastrous as his 5.85 ERA. That number is identical to his Steamer ERA projection for 2016.
Lohse pitched a huge chunk of games in Miller Park, which as we know is a home run-friendly ballpark. His fly ball rate actually remained in line with his career numbers, however, his FB/HR (fly ball to home run) rate saw a huge increase from his career number of 10.0 to 15.3 in 2015. So Lohse was very much a victim of the Miller Park sweatbox. Lohse also saw a fairly decent uptick in his swinging strike percentage in 2015 as it was 8.88, which is substantially higher than his career rate of 7.72. Hitters were missing his pitches more often, but when they hit them into the air, Miller Park made sure they were home runs instead of outs.
I am not saying that Kyle Lohse is going to be a dominant pitcher in 2016, but he would be a fairly solid arm to add to the rotation. There’s enough of a track record to safely assume he will bounce-back and return close to the pitcher he was during the proceeding four seasons. I think there is enough in his peripherals to at least sign him to a one-year deal or, depending on the market, a minor league deal with an invite to spring training.
If his fly ball rate remains constant, PNC Park would almost guarantee a huge decrease in his home runs and if his swinging strike percentage stays in line with his 2015 numbers, you could have a recipe for a very solid back of the rotation starter for the 2016 Pittsburgh Pirates.
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