Another in the collection of “grinder” outfielders in the system, Chad Hinshaw has been under the radar, but is now starting to get noticed. Is he ready to stay on the radar now?
Chad Hinshaw
In 10 words or less: First full season, climbing the ladder quickly. Great tools.
Position: OF Born: 9/10/90
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6’1″ Weight: 205
Last Year Rank: Unranked
2014 Season Stats
[table id=47 /]
OFFENSE
Contact – D. Hinshaw is a bit surprising in that he has the leadoff hitter profile but also has a considerable amount of swing-and-miss to his game. OK, not a considerable amount, a lot of it. It’s actually a problem. One that both he and the Angels appear to be addressing, as it was something stressed during his AFL stint after the season (which he was very good in).
Power – B. Most people don’t realize this, but Chad Hinshaw actually has a great deal of gap and over the wall power. I watched him in the A Ball All-Star Game just launch one out of the park on a belt-high inside pitch. Keep in mind, the Midwest League parks are generally built to suppress that sort of power. Once Chad made it to the Cal League there wasn’t anything left to stop his lind drive and fly balls from flying out of the park, as evidenced by his 10 HR’s (32 XBH) in only 65 games. That roughly equates to 20 HR’s and 64 XBH across a full season. Not bad, but also inflated, which is supported by the fact that he only hit 3 HR’s at home, the only neutral/pitcher friendly park in the Cal League. As it stands, it’s pretty safe to say Hinshaw has the ability to hit 10-15 HR’s a year, similar to a Kendrick-Calhoun type. The HR totals likely won’t be there next year as he moves to the Texas League as Dickey Stephens is a major pitcher friendly park, but the power is still there.
Discipline – B. Hinshaw has a career .373 OBP and got on base 40% of the time in the AFL against some of the top talent in the minors. This ability to reach base definitely indicates that Hinshaw himself could fulfill a leadoff role at the higher levels.
Speed – A-. Hinshaw may be the fastest runner in the system right now (Stamets, Way or Hermosillo may have something to say about that), but regardless, he is the best base stealer in the system, so he uses his speed more efficiently than the rest. This stat actually led to a deflated number of doubles he hit this year because he was able to stretch a large chunk of them into triples (11 triples on the season).
DEFENSE
Arm – B-. Hinshaw has a slightly above average arm, enough to play any position in the OF. He’s best suited as a CF or LF though.
Fielding – B+. Hinshaw has one of the best gloves in the Angels system out in CF. As I said in Bo Way’s scouting report, Angels fans have been spoiled by two of the best defenders out in CF in Peter Bourjos and Mike Trout. Hinshaw isn’t quite as good as they are, especially going over the wall like Trout, but Hinshaw is still clearly very good.
Range – B+. Hinshaw has as much range as anyone (outside of Trout) in this organization. He uses his plus-plus speed to cover the gaps. As far as I can tell, his first step and routes aren’t elite but given that his speed is, it isn’t an issue.
OVERALL
Performance – A. Hinshaw is a bit older than the age curve, so he needed to have a good season in order to avoid anonymity. He responded by flashing his plus tools in the Midwest League, making the all-star team, moving up to the Cal League, sowing more of the same and then earning his ticket to the AFL, where he was once again quite good. He really couldn’t have had much better of a season.
Projection – B. Hinshaw doesn’t quite have superstar potential, but he definitely has enough to break into the majors and emerge as a possible everyday player. He doesn’t hit for a ton of average, though enough not to be a liability, but he has the power to knock the ball out of the park or into the gaps, the speed to steal 30+ bases a year, the patience to reach base at a respectable rate and enough defensive ability to play either CF or LF or RF at the major league level. If he keeps it up just the way he did this year, Hinshaw will be an MLB starter. He actually reminds me a lot of a former Angels prospect Jeremy Moore, but with better plate discipline.
Grade as a Prospect – C+. He has plus tools but is a year or two behind the age curve. He has the upside to be a difference maker in the majors, but can also end up being more of a 4th OF. If he sets himself apart this year in AA, expect to see this grade jump into the B range.
Estimated Time of Arrival – 2016/17. Though a starting role isn’t necessarily available, Hinshaw has a slightly better profile than current Angels 4th OF Collin Cowgill (who is no slouch himself). Chad could end up being similar to Kole Calhoun though, in that he does almost everything right, and breaks into the lineup and doesn’t look back.
2014 in Review*
Chad Hinshaw came into the 2014 season as merely an organizational guy with great speed. He showed some discipline and quality defense in his brief 2013 debut, but not much else. Well, he got himself noticed in 2014. Hinshaw continued to show that discipline and defense, but really put his speed on display with 48 steals in 144 games (counting the AZL). And he swiped those bags at a 72.7% success rate, showing he’s not just some volume base stealer as we so often see in the lower levels of the minors.
What really moved the needle for Hinshaw was that he flashed more offensive prowess than expected. He cranked out a .207 minors across Burlington and Inland Empire, which is not what you often see from a speed/defense outfielder. That power came at a price though as Hinshaw struckout 23.4% of the time. That’s a lot of strikeouts, some of which can be attributed to his highly disciplined approach, but that is still a distressingly high amount of whiffs for a guy who is already known to have contact issues.
What really sets up Hinshaw to potentially be a MLB regular is his high OBP. With his speed and pop, you can live with the whiffs and lower average if he is drawing a ton of walks, which he did in the Midwest League and the AZL. However, he didn’t walk much in the California League. In fact, his walk rate plummeted to 5.0%, which isn’t good at all. 298 plate appearances isn’t a big sample size, but it is big enough to suggest that this drop in walks wasn’t just a statistical fluke. Hinshaw actually cut down on his strikeout when he jumped from the Bees to the 66ers, so it is quite likely that he adopted a more aggressive approach to try and eliminate the strikeouts, but ended up eliminating a lot of the walks too.
Looking Ahead*
At 24, Hinshaw might already be looking at a make or break year in 2015. He’s likely to get jumped to Double-A Arkansas at some point this coming season where he’ll have to show that his offensive prowess can really stand up to advanced pitching. He’ll also have to show that he can find a happy medium between reducing strikeouts and still getting on base at a high clip. If he can do that, Hinshaw should really be taken seriously as a Starling Marte-type starting outfielder. If he doesn’t, he’ll still have a good shot at developing into a Collin Cowgill-type bench player.
*As we do every year, the scouting reports and grades are provided by Scotty Allen while Garrett Wilson provides the 2014 in Review and Looking Ahead sections.
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