A lot of NFL teams preach "best player available" as their drafting mantra. BPA—it's almost become a "politically correct" sacred cow and a safe PR position for general managers in the league to take as an explanation for the draft choices they make.
But I'm a student of our resident genius GK Brizer's "mBPA" theory— where the "m" stands for "modified" based upon short-term and long-term positional need, developmental opportunity, and a host of other variables.
Enter the "Sleeper" prospect…
Even Brizer's mBPA draft theory would be put to the test if you had a mid-to-late round prospect who blew the doors off at the Combine, suddenly was available at your draft pick slot, yet played a field position where you were already well stocked.
My best hypothetical example of such a dilemma would be if Bo Jackson were 22 years old today and just coming out of Auburn— and he fell to the 4th or 5th round and was available for the Eagles to pick.
Here you are, pretty well stocked at RB with Shady McCoy, Bryce Brown and Chris Polk— you've already addressed other positional needs in earlier rounds— and then Bo Jackson, 6-1, 230, 4.12 in the '40, falls into your lap of opportunity.
This in my humble opinion would be the ultimate test of the mBPA theory…
Bo Jackson was the ultimate draft "Sleeper"…
The year was 1987 and the spot in the draft was in the seventh round, of all places. How he slipped so far in the draft, one might certainly ask. Being a highly skilled baseball player compelled him to elect the world of MLB in 1986. The Kansas City Royals were the lucky recipients of the star athlete’s services. He decided to reenter the NFL Draft in 1987 after being initially drafted by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the previous year. Teams throughout the league were skeptical about the viability of success for a two-sport player. Despite his documented potential, he was available for the Silver and Black to select in the 1987 Draft.
In his rookie season, he recorded the longest run of any player in Raiders history with an impressive 91-yarder. He proceeded to break his own record with a 92-yarder in 1989.
During his rookie campaign, Jackson rushed for 554 yards and four touchdowns at an astonishing average of 6.8 yards per carry in only seven games. More pertinent was his blistering speed and the way he punished the opposition’s defense with it.
Additional superlatives include 1989 and 1990 second-team All-Conference selections, a Pro Bowl roster nomination in 1990 and qualifying in the top-three for best average per rush in two consecutive seasons. He also led the 1989 Raiders with 950 yards on a remarkable 5.5 yards per carry.
A combination of unprecedented speed and power created Bo Jackson’s legacy on the field. He evaded initial attempted tackles at the defensive line and outran the rest of the defense en route to his final destination, the end zone. His unforgettable run with the Raiders against the Seattle Seahawks for nearly the length of the football field and into the tunnel displayed his blazing speed. In that same game, his display of sheer power provided another sensational moment when he literally ran over the Seahawks’ Brian Bosworth at the goal line for a score on Monday Night Football. Countless other captivating plays dominate his career highlight reel.
But for all of that eventual highlighted ability and NFL success, Bo Jackson was just a "sleeper" in the 1986 NFL Draft… and when the Raiders took him in the 1987 Draft, they already had Marcus Allen—who at the time was acknowledged as the best overall RB in the NFL.
Jackson finished his career at Auburn with 4,575 all-purpose yards and 45 total touchdowns, 43 rushing and 2 receiving, with a 6.6 yards per carry average. (Jackson's football number 34 was officially retired at Auburn in a halftime ceremony on October 31, 1992. )
Going into the 1986 NFL Draft, Jackson ran a 4.12 40-yard dash time. This dash was officially hand-timed because the NFL Combine didn't start electronically timing athletes until 1990.
Bo Jackson was the ultimate "Sleeper" pick. So if you're the Eagles and you're well stocked already at "The Sleeper's" position, you are in a real-time test of the mBPA theory of optimum drafting. You can't use "positional need" as the rationale for picking this guy.
There are "sleepers" out there in the 2014 Draft.
None of these guys are likely to be "Bo Jackson" types—-but the mBPA theory will be put to the test as these "sleepers" fall into the Eagles' mid-to-late round range.
Here are some of the "Sleepers" I've discovered who may be likely to fall into the Eagles' range this May, and whose Combine results will go a long way to putting pressure on the mBPA model:
1-Keith McGill-Cornerback-Utah (6”3; 214 lbs)
Analysis: NFL general managers are on the search for the next Richard Sherman and from a size standpoint McGill certainly fits the bill standing at 6”3. McGill transferred from Cerritos College (JUCO) where he played safety, but his size and length eased him into the transition to the cornerback position. McGill has a strong ability to jam at the line of scrimmage, making him an ideal fit for a team that plays press coverage. McGill leaves a lot to be desired in supporting the run and his hip movement is nothing more than average. While teams are searching for Richard Sherman, I would compare Keith McGill more to another Seahawks’ cornerback— Brandon Browner.
(Projected—Round 4)
2-Billy Turner-Offensive Tackle-North Dakota State (6”5, 315 lbs)
Analysis: Billy Turner is a mammoth division 1-AA player that has the ability to be an immediate starter in the NFL. Turner has the versatility to play left tackle, inside at guard, but his best fit at the next level is at right tackle in my opinion. Turner is a big, athletic guy that plays with a mean streak that coaches love. Turner could use some work in terms of pass protection but he is an absolute dominant run blocker. Turner’s athleticism is his strongest attribute and someone is going to get a steal on this guy in the fourth or fifth round of the draft.
(Projected–Round 3)
3-Jay Bromley-Defensive Tackle-Syracuse (6”4, 294 lbs)
Bromley, the defensive captain for the Syracuse Orangemen, is a player on the rise after a dominant performance at the Shrine game practices last week. Bromley is an absolute monster against the run and has developed some skills that have improved his game as a pass-rusher. The two things that stick out while watching Bromley is that he plays with great leverage and has a quick first step that allows him to control offensive linemen with ease. Bromley accounted for nine sacks during the 2013 season and is a player whose stock is on the climb.
(Projected—Round 4 or 5)
4-James Gayle-Defensive End-Virginia Tech (6”3, 255 lbs)
James Gayle offers great versatility as he can be a 4-3 defensive end with his hand in the dirt or a standup linebacker in a 3-4 defense given him the unpopular title of “tweener”. He is built lean so adding weight and muscle mass will be important for him to be able to take the beating that the NFL offers. Gayle has great instincts, an above-average first step, but does need to get stronger to be effective at the next level. In 2012 Gayle contributed five sacks for the Virginia Tech Hokies. The best skill that Gayle offers is his ability to close as he is able to cover a lot of ground and do it quickly. Gayle is a hard worker willing to dedicate himself to his craft, so adding weight, strength, and pass-rushing skills must be his primary focus. Ultimately I see Gayle being drafted in the fifth round and not making much of an impact in his rookie season, but if he works on the areas where he needs to improve I see him finding playing time in a year two.
(Projected— Round 5)
5-James White-Running-Back-Wisconsin (5”9, 206 lbs)
When people think of the Wisconsin running-game the first name that pops in their head is Melvin Gordon and rightfully so, as Gordon is one of the best runners in college football, but please do not sleep on his counterpart James White. The one knock you will continually see against White is his size, but he runs a lot bigger than his size would indicate. White has a great combination of vision and burst which allows him to get to the second level quickly. White gives you an extra bonus as a good blocker in terms of picking up the blitz in the backfield. A balanced runner with low tread on his tires that might not be an every down back in the NFL, but can be a player in the Fred Jackson mold…
(Projected– Round 6)
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