List of Joe: Could the Bills go QB at 10?

1) Quarterbacks 1st round history

• Bills history: Since 1970, only the Chiefs, Giants, 49ers, Dolphins and expansion teams (Saints/Jags/Panthers/Texas) have drafted fewer QBs in the NFL than the Buffalo Bills (Kelly-Losman-EJ).
• Doug Whaley: On the staff when they drafted EJ Manuel in the 1st round and on the staff in Pittsburgh that drafted Big Ben.
• McDermott: Eagles drafted McNabb in 1998 and Cam Newton in 2011.

2) QBs rule the media world – There’s been a ton of smoke here the last few weeks in regards to QB at 10. From Terry Pegula doing QB scouting trips, to the Bills re-tweeting a picture of him and McDermott at North Carolina, and draft experts connecting Bills to QBs. A few things I’d like to throw out there…QBs run the world around draft time. Everyone is always talking about where this or that QB could go. At this point, outlets could get a message board draft tip about a team wanting this or that prospect and they will run with it because it is more entertaining to talk about QBs rise and fall than say a Defensive back. Remember what the leaks were like during the 2013 draft class where Ryan Nassib could go #1 and Matt Barkley was a shoe-in at #9 for the Bills? How about the rise of Jimmy Clausen? From leaks, agents, or just draft experts, QBs being pushed prior to the draft is nothing new. Hell, I feel ESPN will purposely have a QBs stock rise just so they can get people talking about it.

3) The Bills tweeting smoke screens? Anyone think it is weird how the Bills re-tweeted a picture of their owner/coach scouting a QB? This is a team that kept their choice for Tyrod air-tight and have maintained wanting to make sure leaks DON’T get out. Hell, do we even know if the Bills are running a zone defense like they did in Carolina or are they running the blitzkrieg style from Philly/Jimmie Johnson? They are sooooo buttoned up when it comes to this and hardly give any sort of insight into what they are thinking. They won’t even tell us whose really making the picks, but they’ll tweet out a photo of McDermott/Pegula in North Carolina? Weird….unless it’s a smoke screen.

4) Tyrod hanging by a thread? We all know the Bills don’t have that much confidence in Tyrod since they made him rework his deal and Doug Whaley probably isn’t a fan of him. There’s a part of me that thinks if the Bills really liked a QB in this draft, they would have cut Tyrod. Since 2008, 24 QBs have been picked in the 1st round and 19 of them started at least 10+ games at QB.

Now, in certain cases these rookies ended up starting midway through the season and the Bills could have a short leash on Tyrod if he pulls out a few 140 yard games. The public perception for Tyrod may have been high when the Bills decided to bring him back. It helped how his final start against Miami was a career game and I think fans started viewing him as a bit of a martyr with how the Bills forced Anthony Lynn to bench him. However, I remember how bad it got during the season when Twitter was losing their fricken minds. Aside from Rich Fann, I think almost every person wanted Tyrod shot into the sun at some point during last season.  I know he’s a bad game or two from the vultures swooping in. And consider how management feels about him and he’s only back because McDermott wants to see what he’s got, I dunno, but that vote of confidence can easily be taken away.

5) Kevin Kolb and Jay Cutler –  I’m a big believer in looking back at what the former bosses of current Bills coaches did at their previous destinations. Bosses can be mentors and can be people you pattern your style of coaching and player selection after. So what does Kevin Kolb have to do with it? Well, he was the first pick the Eagles drafted in 2007 in the 2nd round (didn’t have a first rounder) and the Eagles had just finished with a 5-11 record where Terrell Owens was cut. McNabb was still in his prime and was only 29 years old at the time. You’d think maybe they want to add to their WR position? Instead, they went with Kolb in the 2nd round and he sat for 3 seasons until they traded McNabb after the 2009 season. I mention this cause McNabb was much better than Tyrod is today and they ended up drafting what they thought was the heir apparent. We all know McDermott loves Andy Reid and maybe the apple doesn’t far fall from the tree when it comes to thinking about QBs.

Additionally, Rick Dennison was the OC for the Broncos when they finished 13-3 and had Jake Plummer, who actually had a decent year with them and was just 30. Who did they pick in the draft after losing in the AFC Title game in order to help them get over the hump? Jay Cutler. Again, this doesn’t mean the Bills will go QB but they have two guys with power on this coaching staff who have been on staffs where their mentors drafted someone high when they had arguably a better veteran in place than Tyrod.

6) Message to take a QB every year crowd – If you  complain about QB at 10, I will may block your ass like I’m Mike Harrington. Now this only goes towards those fans who always complained about them NOT drafting enough QBs. This would be the 2nd year in a row they would have drafted a QB within the first 4 rounds. If there’s one thing Bills fans always bitch about, its QB. So, don’t complain if they go QB at 10 if you are in that category…unless you have some inside knowledge or feel those QBs there automatically suck.

7) Do the Bills need an impact starter? I’ve seen a few people talk about how the Bills need an impact starter from day 1. If you go QB, more than likely that QB isn’t going to be a starter on day 1. Maybe…Day 120? But in all honesty, if the Bills get a DB/WR/RT at pick #10, how big of an improvement will their win total be this year? Like 6? I know the Bills got Kyle Williams to come back and it has been greeted in a “OH, THEY HAVE TO BE SERIOUS ABOUT WINNING BECAUSE HE’S COMING BACK. But, we are talking about a player who is going to make 9.5 million dollars (He’s making bank, so, its not like he’s coming cheap) and the narrative from them is how they think they are still good. Yet, what are they supposed to say? We suck and we are going to rebuild? Of course they have to be on the up-and-up. Do you really think they are going to be good this year? I don’t. I know McDermott has been rubbing off on everyone with his attention to detail, but the talent on this roster just doesn’t do it for me. Wherever the Bills go at #10, I don’t think their overall W/L record is going to improve by much this year because they are rookies. If their draft board tells them that a QB is the best option at 10, select him. Don’t worry about this season, but worry about the future.

8) Perfect QB dream – Can you imagine if the Bills draft a QB at #10 and Tyrod actually plays well this season? That would be money. I’m sure it would be treated as a QB controversy and we would argue to death on Twitter who is better, but then you are talking about possible trade bait for either guy. Even with a few starts, we all know young QBs can get you a hefty price. It would be great if Tyrod – with a healthy Sammy Watkins – can put together a 26TD and 3500 yard season…Then trade him.

9) Verdict – This is tough, but I don’t see a QB at 10. McDermott is the x-factor in all of this because he’s the new guy and its obvious he has complete carte blanche with this organization and I just can’t see them keeping Tyrod and drafting someone at #10 at QB. I tend to always believe coaches will draft what their background is connected to when they first get into town. Wade Phillips first pick…Sam Cowart. Gregg Williams first pick…Nate Clements. Mike Mularkey first picks….Lee Evans/JP Losman. Dick Jauron first picks…Donte Whitner/John McCargo. Chan Gailey first pick….CJ Spiller. Doug Marrone first pick….EJ Manuel. Rex Ryan’s first pick…Ronald Darby. Pretty coincidental that all these coaches went with a position they knew best when it comes to their side of the ball.