The Second Season

As the MLB general managers’ meetings wind down this week in Phoenix, Arizona, the buzz surrounding the playoffs and the World Series fade and the focus shifts to free agency. Speculation and intrigue about where this year’s crop of free agents will play in 2015 will dominate the baseball news for the next couple of months.

One thing that Seattle Mariners’ fans will note from this group of free agents is that it is generally weak in every day players, and especially weak at the positions where the Mariners need to improve.

Positions That Need Improving  

In 2014, the Mariners fell one game short of making the playoffs, finishing with an 87-75 record, one game behind the second wild card qualifier, Oakland Athletics, and two games behind the first wild card qualifier and eventual World Series runner-up, Kansas City Royals. One more game would have gotten the Mariners into the dance and one more game would have brought a World Series victory back to the Kansas City for the Royals for the first time since 1985. That’s how narrow the difference is between staying home and winning it all in the wild card era in MLB.

This season established that the Mariners are set for some years to come at second base and third base with the acquisition of former New York Yankees 2B, Robinson Cano, and the full emergence of Kyle Seager at 3B. The 5.5 WAR accumulated by Seager and the 5.2 WAR accumulated by Cano confirm both as All-Star caliber players in the Mariners’ infield.

A mid-season trade for Detroit Tigers centerfielder, Austin Jackson, could provide some stability in the outfield if he can return to his 2010 form when he hit .293/.345/.400 with 103 runs and 27 stolen bases. But, his numbers have declined every year since and in 54 games with the Mariners he hit an abysmal .229/.267/.260 with an absurdly low .031 ISO and 51 wRC+. In hindsight, sticking with rookie James Jones might have been preferable.

Catcher Mike Zunino improved defensively and showed some good power at the plate (.205 ISO), but needs to cut down on the strikeouts (33.2 K%) and learn how to take a walk every once in a while (3.6 BB%). Still, he’s young and headed in the right direction.

Left fielder Dustin Ackley had a good second half (.269/.307/.416), although he trailed off in September and October (.149/.205/.299), and proved to be serviceable in an era of diminished offensive returns.

Every other positon – 1B, SS, RF, and DH – needs upgrading if the Mariners are to improve in 2015.

First Base   

In 2014, now departed Justin Smoak and Logan Morrison combined to hit .237 with 18 HR, 69 RBI, and 68 runs. Morrison alone, in 99 games, hit .262/.315/.420 and would probably put up 15-20 HR and 60-70 RBI over a full season.

But at a power bat positon like 1B, where 12 players in the majors hit more than 25 HR and 12 drove in more than 85 runs, it’s safe to say that the Mariners still haven’t found what they are looking for at first. And they probably aren’t going to find it this off-season.

The short list of free agent 1B consists of Adam LaRoche, who played with the Washington Nationals in 2014, Lyle Overbay from the Milwaukee Brewers, and Mark Reynolds, also from the Brewers. None of these are particularly good fits for the Mariners.

LaRoche, with the best numbers of the three (.259/.362/.455 with 26 HR and 92 RBI), is left handed, a side of the plate the Mariners are flush with currently. But, with so few quality bats on the market this offseason, LaRoche would certainly represent a major upgrade at 1B. It will be interesting to see if the Nationals move on from LaRoche and move oft-injured 3B Ryan Zimmerman to 1B, as he has become a defensive liability at the hot corner.

Overbay, who was born in Centralia, WA, is also left handed, will turn 38 in January, and only managed to slug .333 in 258 AB in 2014. At this point in his career, Overbay is a platoon player for a desperate team, or a left handed bat off the bench for a contender.

Reynolds is the only right hander of the trio, but essentially is a one trick pony. He hits home runs. And that’s about it. His line in 378 AB in 2014 reads – .196/.287/.394 with 22 HR, 45 RBI, and 47 R. Over a full season, he could easily hit 30+ HR, but can a Mariners team that ranked 27^th in MLB in OBP afford another sub .300 OBP in the lineup?

Shortstop  

Between four players, but primarily Brad Miller and Chris Taylor, the Mariners got .239 hitting with 11 HR, 81 R, 61 RBI, and 11 SB from the shortstop position in 2014, which is decent production from the middle infield. The problem is that much of the BA is inflated from an unsustainable .398 BABIP in 47 games from Chris Taylor.

The Mariners need to decide if either Miller of Taylor or Nick Franklin is the guy and move the others as pieces in a trade to acquire another bat.

In free agency, Hanley Ramirez, who played with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2014, and Asdrubel Cabrera, formerly of the Washington Nationals, are the best players available. The catch is that there are rumors that the New York Yankees are in need of a shortstop in 2015. Apparently, some guy named Jeter retired this year. Who knew?

Both ESPN and MLB.com have reported that several GM’s in MLB think that Ramirez needs to move from shortstop to third as his defensive skills have declined. But realistically, unless the Colorado Rockies are willing to move Troy Tulowitzki to the Yankees and the Dodgers pass on re-signing Hanley, I would look to see Ramirez in either Dodger blue or pinstripes next season.

His .283/.369/.448 line sure would look good in the middle of the Mariners lineup, though.

Cabrera, who turns 29 today, hit .241/.307/.387 for two teams in 2014, with below average defense, may not be a big enough upgrade over Miller’s or Taylor’s upside to justify the $9 million plus per year contract he is sure to command.

Right Field

Right field is by far the Mariners’ most pressing need this off-season. Endy Chavez, Michael Saunders, Cory Hart, Cole Gillespie, Chris Denorfia, and Stefen Romero, all logged time in RF in 2014. In 1134 PA between the six, they hit 22 HR, 8 of which came from Saunders alone, who only played 78 games. The Mariners are desperately in need of a right handed, power bat at any position, but especially at the corner outfield.

Nelson Cruz, who played out a one year contract with the Baltimore Orioles in 2014, is back on the market. Coming back from suspension in Texas for PED use, Cruz hit .271/.333/.525 with 32 HR, 108 RBI, and 87 R for the AL East division winners.

But, given that Mariners ownership nixed a $7.5 million deal with Cruz for 2014 that included a $9 M club option for 2015, it’s doubtful that Cruz would entertain coming to Seattle, unless the Mariners overpaid or went an extra year or two for a player who will be 35 in July.

Other options through free agency in RF include Nick Markakis from the Orioles and Alex Rios from the Texas Rangers.

It will also be interesting to see if the rumors are true and the Rockies might be willing to move Carlos Gonzales, who only played 70 games in 2014. He is left handed, but at 28, if he’s healthy, he’d be a major upgrade over anything the Mariners can currently put in right field.

Designated Hitter

Cruz and Victor Martinez* from the Detroit Tigers lead the class of free agent DH.

Martinez was phenomenal in 2014, hitting .335/.409/.565 with 32 HR, 103 RBI, and 87 R. He’s right handed and while he no longer catches, he can play 1B on occasion.

But, he will turn 36 before next season and has already turned down the Tigers’ $15.3 M qualifying offer. Does anyone remember what happened to Kendrys Morales after turning down the Mariners’ qualifying offer in 2013? Even as good as Martinez has been, I’d be surprised to see him make as much next year as he just turned down.

Outlook

Its slim pickins out there for quality bats that fit the Mariners’ needs for 2015, at least in free agency. Hanley Ramirez, Nelson Cruz, and Victor Martinez are the cream of the crop, and each has compelling reasons to sign elsewhere. As he did with Robinson Cano, Mariners GM Zach Zduriencik will need to overpay and/or go the extra year or two to land any of the few impact bats out there in free agency. But, he should keep in mind that a game or two here and there and it could have been the Seattle Mariners going deep into the post-season.

*Editor’s Note: The Detroit Tigers and veteran Victor Martinez have agreed to a four-year deal, a team source told ESPN’s Jim Bowden. This occurred after the submission of this column.