The 2016 MLB amateur draft will begin within the next week, but even once we know who the Indians picks, we won’t really know what they have in them for quite some time. Rather than try to predict who they will pick and what will become of them, it’s more useful to look at the results of the draft five years ago. This is something I’ve done every year for the past three seasons and you can check out how much better off that the Indians are now than they were then by looking at the five year reviews for 2010, 2009 and 2008.

2011

Major League Ready
Francisco Lindor (Round 1), Cody Anderson (14), Ryan Merritt (16), Shawn Armstrong (18) & Cody Allen (23)

In the three previous seasons of returning to a draft five seasons later, there has really just been one player who was outstanding beyond expectations, Jason Kipnis. This time, however, Lindor blows the roof off the normal expectations. He’s the Indians best defensive short stop since Omar Vizquel and he already has earned comparisons to the perennial Gold Glover. In addition, he’s been one of the Indians top hitters and base runners since joining the team last June.

In addition, 23rd round pick Allen has become one of the most dominant closers in baseball and lead all MLB relievers in 2015 in WAR. He was the first 2011 pick to make his debut for the Tribe just over a year after he was originally drafted in July of 2012. Anderson was a solid pitcher in 2015 after making his debut with three runs allowed in his first four starts. He remains one of the Indians top six starting pitcher options and an occasional member of the starting rotation. Armstrong made his MLB debut in 2015 in the bullpen and pitched well in very limited action. He recently rejoined the Indians MLB bullpen at the end of May.

Merritt also pitched out of the Indians bullpen in May and could have a future there despite playing his entire career to that point as a starter. The left hander doesn’t throw hard, but is deceiving and has been extremely effective in his second season in Columbus.

Top Prospects
Eric Haase (7), Jeff Johnson (10), Todd Hankins (15) & Shawn Morimando (19)

Essentially, all the Indians top prospects from the 2011 draft have already made their MLB debuts, but loosening up the definition, we have a few interesting names left. The closest to Major League readiness is Johnson, a right handed reliever set back after missing a year with injury.

Morimando is a lefty who is currently tearing up the Eastern League with the Akron Rubberducks and is possibly being held back by the Indians tremendous starting pitching depth. It’s hard to tell because he is facing lesser talent, but he could be nearly as Major League ready as Merritt.

The two position players listed also lack a high ceiling, but both have Major League potential due to their positions. Hankins is playing in his second season in AAA and has experience at six different positions (all outfield and all infield except 1B) while Haase could be could be the Indians best minor league catching option despite being only in AA. He has an electric arm and while his bat is probably not strong enough to be a starting catcher, it should be plenty as a reserve.

Mid to Low Level Prospects
Will Roberts (5), Bryson Myles (6), Jordan Smith (9), Grant Sides (12) & Yhoxian Medina (38)

If the last group didn’t excite you, then this one certainly won’t. Sides has possibly the highest ceiling, but is a reliever and hasn’t made it beyond AA. Roberts is the most developed as a starter in AAA for multiple seasons, but may never reach the big leagues unless the Indians deal with multiple, extreme injuries. The position players Myles and Medina also haven’t been beyond AA and haven’t elevated themselves to the point where they should be of major interest to Indians fans. Like with Roberts, Smith is more advanced, but has an even lower ceiling as an outfielder competing with the next class of draft picks including Clint Frazier, Bradley Zimmer, Greg Allen and more even younger talents.

Biggest Busts
Dillon Howard (2), Jake Sisco (3) & Jake Lowery (4)

To be fair, players chosen after the tenth round aren’t going to be seen as having high enough expectations to be busts, but is should be known that none of the 24 players who signed that weren’t mentioned above are with the team anymore. The top picks that signed, but have since left the system were two pitchers, Howard and Sisco and the catcher Lowery. Lowery was the most recent to leave, joining the Washington Nationals last off-season after leaving as a minor league free agent.

Howard was without a doubt the biggest bust of this draft as the 67th overall pick in the draft. He never played higher than the Arizona Rookie League and he was released after the 2012 season. Sisco was the 97th overall pick and at least made it up to A ball, but he was also quickly released after the 2013 season.

2010

Left Overs

The Indians did a pretty good job over the past two seasons in getting rid of or pushing aside those players who used to be considered top prospects from 2010 or before. These players include Drew Pomeranz (1st round, now with Colorado), Tony Wolters (3rd, Colorado), Tyler Holt (10th, Cincinnati), Jordan Cooper (9th, released) and Alex Lavisky (8th, released on May 29). The few players left over include only those with an extremely low chance of breaking through to the Majors including the once highly exalted LeVon Washington (2) and right handed pitcher Robbie Aviles (7).

2012

Up & Comers

For those ahead of schedule from 2012, first round pick Tyler Naquin (1) is the head of the class. In fact, the outfielder who has already made his MLB debut is really the only player likely to do so for the Tribe this year. Joey Wendle (6) was likely the next man up, but was sent to Oakland for Brandon Moss prior to 2015.

Beyond that, the players to be most excited about are Nellie Rodriguez (15) the power hitting first baseman currently in Akron, Jeremy Lucas (12) a catcher in Akron and Kieran Lovegrove the Captains closer.