I first wrote an article like this in 2014. I went 3/5, which is really good considering the nature of these bold predictions are meant to be unlikely to come true. In 2015, I went 1/5, which isn’t so good. Still I touted that I averaged 40% on these predictions, which I thought was cool. Then last year happened…..and now I’m not so optimistic. In fact I’d rather you just take these predictions at entertainment value only so I may be spared the humiliation. Let’s review last year’s predictions first.
1. Kole Calhoun will have his best season as an Angel – .276/.326 with 30 doubles and 20 home runs.
His actual performance was .271/.348 35 DB 18 HR. That’s actually a very accurate prediction on my part, but to be fair, Kole managed 3.4 wins above replacement his most valuable season was back in 2014 when he accumulated 4.1 wins above replacement. I can’t claim this one to have come true. While my numbers were pretty spot on, the fact is I predicted his best season yet, and it wasn’t. 0/1.
2. Garrett Richards will finish Top 5 in the AL Cy Young race
Nope, not even close. Richards was great when he pitched last year, and I’d argue that if he stayed healthy, he could’ve beaten Rick Porcello out for the Cy Young because Garrett Richards is a better pitcher than Rick Porcello. But instead, Richards became dehydrated, which is apparentlyt code for “Needs Tommy John surgery”. Garrett didn’t get it, and instead successful underwent stem cell infusion and his elbow recovered enough to start this year 100%. That’s a win for Garrett and the Angels, just not my prediction. 0/2.
3. Albert Pujols will turn back time and deliver a 2012-like performance – .275/.330 40 DB 30 HR
Instead, Albert dealt with more foot troubles, and his .268/.323 with 19 DB 31 HR. Yeah, not even close. 0/3.
4. C.J. Cron won’t be the player we envisioned – .280/.320 35 DB 15 HR.
This was meant to say that Cron wasn’t going to be the power hitter we pictured. That’s fair. But he hit .278/.325 25 DB 16 HR across 116 games. Had he played a full season, he might’ve come closer to my prediction, but as it stands, he didn’t. 0/4.
5. The Angels will have the best bullpen in the AL West
Let’s just stop that right here. 0/5.
So as you can see, my bold predictions are bold. So bold that none of them come true, though a couple came close. This gives me the perfect opportunity to segue into this year’s five bold predictions, which will undoubtedly embarrass me again this time next year.
1. The Angels will win a playoff game
That’s right folks, be amazed! My bold predictions are meant to be out here, and according to most sources, this is pretty far out there, but let me hit you with some knowledge (really, any chance I get to quote the movie “Dodgeball”). The Angels won 98 games the year before last. That’s a lot of freakin’ games, and that team is still very much intact…..when it’s not on the 60 day DL. If things go right, Richards is an ace, Shoemaker and Skaggs are mid-rotation starters, Nolasco is pitching at home in So Cal and will eat innings as a #4 starter, and Jesse Chavez will do what he did in 2015, the last time he ws a starter, which is pitch quite well. The Angels have also built themselves a solid lineup 1-9 that if nothing else, can make contact and put runners in scoring position. Defensively, the Angels should be among the best, if not the best defensive unit in all of baseball. I predict the Angels sneak into the playoffs and get themselves a W.
2. Ben Revere will dethrone Cam Maybin as the starting LF and turn in one of his prototypical seasons when he was healthy.
I like Cameron Maybin. I’ve liked him ever since the Padres managed to get him and he turned into a dynamic, albeit overlooked ball player. I still think he is. But last season’s abridged .315 batting average just screams fluke to me. Mayan’s a good hitter, but not that good. Revere on the other hand was hurt last year, just no way around that. He wasn’t the same player. But he’s come into Spring this year with a chip on his shoulder and he’s playing to earn a big payday in free agency next winter and to show all of baseball that he’s good when he’s healthy. I think Maybin will get April, they’ll split May, but by June, Revere will take off and be the starting LF.
I’m saying Revere hits .300/.340 with 30 SB and marquee level defense in LF.
3. Bud Norris will be the Angels best reliever
Yeah, this one’s out there. This is the same Bud Norris that hasn’t posted an ERA under 5.00 in a couple years. Fortunately, this is also the same Bud Norris that can hit 96 on the radar gun with regularity. I’m predicting Norris will be for the Angels what Andrew Miller was for the Indians last year, coming out in the 7th inning, getting 2 outs to close the inning, then pitching a clean 8th to set up the closer.
I’m going to go with 70 innings 100 K’s and a 2.20 ERA.
4. Yunel Escobar is traded at the trade deadline, even though the Angels are still in it.
Escobar was more valuable then he’s been given credit for. I don’t think Trout wins MVP without Escobar hitting .304/.355 in front of him. And he’ll continue to be very valuable for the Angels this year. However, his eventual replacement in Luis Valbuena will need somewhere to play, and Jefry Marte will continue to bludgeon homeruns, and Escobar will continue to run himself into mistakes on the base path and give you spectacular plays one second, and bone headed ones the next season in the field. I just think that with Revere breaking out and being capable of hitting leadoff, Valbuena needing somewhere to play because Cron’s going to totally breakout (even though I’m not listing him), and Marte deserving more at bats, the Angels will get someone to overpay for Escobar’s services at the deadline and flip him for a promising young prospect.
5. Ricky Nolasco will have the second finest season of his career.
Nolasco is a career #5 starter. Nothing wrong with that. It covers a lot of innings, earns a great paycheck and a goo reputation. But I think Nolasco will have one last good season, and it will be the second best of his career, after his 2008 performance as a 25 year old for the then Florida Marlins. I think Nolasco enjoys some more of that home cooking, pitching in front of his family, and living in So-Cal. I’m going with 33 starts, 200 innings, 150 K’s and a 3.50 ERA.
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