We’ve been spoiled in the last few years. The Ducks have rarely failed. They’ve met big game challenges and thrown off slow starts. They’ve overcome the loss of stars. Whenever they’ve faced a seemingly insurmountable challenge or crucial situation, someone has come through with a breakthrough performance or a big play. LaMichael James bursts out of the pack. John Boyett comes down with the ball or makes the saving tackle.
They’ve lost five times in three years, and every one of those losses was hard fought, two of them to the number one team in the country, all to bowl teams, never at home. It’s been such an uninterrupted run of success, it’s hard to think of them losing, especially in Autzen. They’ve taken care of business, relentlessly, efficiently and scarcely without fail.
photo right: If the fine young man from Houston can wind up and throw without pressure, comfortable in the pocket, he’ll have a triumphant night and a Heisman coronation. The Ducks need speed, pressure and a complete performance to upend the favored Cardinal in Palo Alto.
Boise State 2009 was the last time you could say they were unprepared or overwhelmed. Stanford in Palo Alto with Toby Gerhart rushing for a mile and half, was probably the last time they were manhandled. Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, Auburn in the National Championship, LSU in the Cowboys Classic, the opponent was simply the better team that day, and the Ducks made too many errors.
Losing stinks.
Saturday, the Ducks face the best quarterback in the nation, and maybe the best since Peyton Manning played the last game of his senior year at Tennessee. Andrew Luck is an all-time great. He’s not infallible. Like even Aaron Rodgers he can be overwhelmed by pressure and try to force the ball into coverage. He has the great pile-driving offensive line and a hard-running tailback, three stalwart tight ends, big, fast and tough to cover (two of them are banged up, with one, Ertz, likely to miss the game) but he doesn’t have elite receivers, and his best one is sitting out. The Stanford defense hits hard but lacks Oregon’s speed. If the Ducks have an edge in this game, it’s that they’re faster, and a talented USC team took the Cardinal to three overtimes.
Oregon can win this matchup if they hold their own at the line of scrimmage and avoid a turnover implosion. Another worry is the surface. Chip Kelly told the media early this week that grass makes no difference. “We’ll play in a parking lot,” he said, with his characteristic blunt New England toughness, refusing as always to let outside factors be the issue. But the fact remains that Stanford’s grass, particularly after heavy rains forecast for this Saturday, will not be a fast track. And the Oregon conspiracy theorist in me worries about how the Stanford ground crew might prepare that surface. When was the last time they cut the grass? And how diligently will they work to drain and prepare the field for Friday? Without any evidence of chicanery it’s paranoid to suspect it, but a muddy, slow track favors the power team. Stanford pounds the ball behind five big linemen, sometimes a sixth, two and three tight ends and a fullback. They run downhill and dare you to stop them.
Against Washington, the Ducks had their most dominating defensive performance of the year. They swarmed to the bubble screen and rallied to the off tackle play. Husky backup quarterback Nick Montana got off a no harm/no foul 53-yard pass play late in the game, but the Malamutes’ longest play from scrimmage after that was a 20-yard completion to Devin Aguilar. Chris Polk’s longest carry was for 14 yards, and he had about a dozen of two yards or less. Against Stanford it’s a new challenge. To beat Luck, to get to Luck and contain the Stanford offense, the Ducks have to stand up to that power running game, and keep The Cardinal from rolling for 5,6,7 yards a crack on first down. If Luck enjoys a long series of third and short yardage situations, situations their multiple play-action attack thrives on, the Webfoots are in for a long slog in the Stanford mud. The ground between the hashmarks will be chewed and stained with blood. Though Oregon is also a physical team, that kind of SEC slugfest is exactly the game the home team wants.
“We’re not a finesse team,” LaMichael James told the media this week. True, but Stanford wants to keep the game in close, like Joe Frazier against Muhammad Ali. They want to clinch and trade body blows, not chase the Ducks around the ring. Oregon’s speed thrives in space, and their 8-0 opponents will try to pound and disrupt, control the football and limit possessions. Everybody’s predicting a shootout. Everybody is usually wrong.
Football is only played once a week. The rest of the time it’s all why, how and maybe. On game days it’s about preparation and execution, the fewest errors, the most big plays, the best plan, about misdirection and moving the pile. Oregon can win in Palo Alto. But it will take their most complete effort of the season, and their first big win over a Top Five team on the road, a big physical team with SEC size and power.
Luck has only been sacked four times all season, intercepted just five times while throwing 26 touchdowns and racking up a perfect 52-52 in the red zone. On Saturday, it would help tremendously if the Ducks could add three sacks, two picks, and blemish that perfect red zone total, or at least tarnish it with more field goals and fewer touchdowns. They’ll have to compete every down to do so.
Add The Sports Daily to your Google News Feed!
