Losing Your Lunch: Auburn Game Pick

Hello Followers.  Hope you had a great week.

With Friday upon us and Game day but a few hours away, it is time to predict our fortunes for this weekend’s game—and potentially the season at large. 

So, if you want to see the conclusion that followed my two week quest into the land of analysis paralysis, read on.

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Followers, if there is one thing we know about first game predictions, it is this:  Notwithstanding the importance of match-ups, predicting the opener is always based on the prognosticator’s view of the team and the season ahead.  And while there is always a middle ground or gray area in assessing a season’s fortunes a priori, tomorrow’s game will be decided as follows.

First, if you believe that this year’s Cougar team is essentially the same team we’ve seen the last two years—a team that will wind up in the Pac-12 North Basement—then tomorrow’s game won’t be close.  I mean, if you assume that Auburn is a 5-7 to 7-5 team in our conference, then you can look straight at last year’s thumpings at the hands of Arizona State and Utah to know what type of game we will see.  And really, it’s that simple:  If we’re poised to play like a cellar dweller again this year, then the course of the game is pretty well laid out:  We might volley a few three and outs with them over the first few minutes of the game before they explode for a big play or two.  By the second quarter, we’ll get behind two scores, start to press, turn the ball over near the red zone, get down 21, at which point the “Here we go again” mindset will be spewed not only all over the field, but in living rooms of Cougar fans across the globe.

So again, if you believe that this group has an offensive line that is still going to yield four sacks a game or more, if you believe that this group doesn’t know how to deal with a rush 3 drop 8 type set-up, then it’s going to be really bad tomorrow–its NOT going to be a "we might hang around for a while affair."  Even worse, if we’re that type of team, we’re going to be 3-9 again…..and we all know what that will mean for the Cougar Universe:

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Of course, there’s also a chance that we are not the same team as the 2007-2012 version of the Cougs (and yes, I know that version was 5-7, but it achieved that record by beating four really bad teams while starting the trend of getting whallopped by all of the good ones).

Tomorrow, Auburn is starting two rookies at DE.  While each of them are five star guys, they’re experience is limited.  In addition, while their defensive backfield is tough, talented, and athletic, they have ZERO depth behind their starters.  And so, one has to wonder how we’ll they are going to hold up after Leach runs four verticals 8 times in a row (even if we wind up checking down to the running back each time) to start the game?  Given our depth at receiver, one has to figure that by the second quarter—even if we just wind up dinking and dunking on check-downs for a while—Marks, Myers, Williams, Williams, Mayle, Galvin, or Cracraft are going to get behind folks.  From that point on, it could be “off to the races" for us the rest of the afternoon.

Meanwhile, Auburn’s defense, while certainly Big and Talented, will be playing their first game in a new defensive scheme against a style of play that they cannot mimic in practice.  And while the same could be said for our ability to prepare for them, their tempo, and their running game, the fact of the matter is that our defense has played against similar styles before and has done so with the same personnel and the EXACT same scheme.  The fact that we are now 295 across the line should also not be overlooked by any of the faithful:  Not only has our offensive line had to block 300 pounders for 6 months, this is the biggest and baddest D line that we’ve had since at least 2006 if not 2002 or 2003.

Xavier Cooper May Be The Best We've Had Since Me.

Ultimately, my take on this game was influenced by a quote that I read from Christian Caple earlier this week.  Specifically, in his most recent chat he was asked to compare this year’s team to the 2012 version of the Cougs.   Christian’s take:  He thought this year’s team would win by at least two scores.

And for me, whenever you think that a team's improvement amounts to a two touchdown difference, well, that makes me think that this team is not only better, but of a different brand–even if that "brand" is not of the championship or contender variety.

So, that’s what I’m going with.  Against a similar schedule, I’m pretty sure that Auburn would finish a game or two ahead of us in the standings.  But straight up, in the first game playing in a new system, I think that the match-up problems we bring to them are slightly more lethal than the problems they present us.   And again, I’m making that assumption based on the idea that (a) The “real” potential of last year was witnessed in the Apple Cup and not the 3 games that preceded it; and (b) We’re better across the board right now than the team that beat the pups in the season finale.

In the end, I’m calling it Cougs 31-24 in a game that will see us win more comfortably than the score indicates. 

But I will be bracing for the type of opener (38-13, 45-7) that we’ve seen around these parts for the past several years.  Because if we’re not improved as advertised–especially along the line– then tomorrow is going to be bad by halftime and disasterous by the midpoint of the Turd Quarter.

All for now.  Go Cougs!