Losing Your Lunch: Swing Game Edition

Happy Humpday, Followers.  Hope you’re doing great!

Today our Cougies take the field for their last practice before heading South to take on War Eagle.

My how time flies.

And while the coaching staff has done a good job at claiming that this is just one game in a very long season, the fact of the matter is that it becomes pretty difficult to find a clear path to bowl eligibility  without winning this game.

That said, even though this game looms as awfully important for our fortunes this season, I do not consider this game to be the real “make or break” contest of the year. 

To read my thoughts about the game that I think is the true swing game for the 2013 Cougs, click on the ole jumperoo.

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Followers, it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that the best way to develop a winning culture is to do something called “winning.”  Not only does success tend to beget success, it also provides a nice cushion or “fall back” position when things start to go wrong—which they inevitably do when you’re a young football team.  Take the 2011 season as a recent example.   Although that team failed to become bowl eligible, that 3-1 start had our boys playing with a fair amount of swagger through our October contest at UCLA. 

Moreover, even though that UCLA game resulted in the start of a pretty tough losing streak, those 3 early season wins kept the prospect of bowl eligibility alive for that group well into mid-November.  And when you’re trying to build a program, that incentive to push through the pain and nagging injuries of late October matters a whole, whole lot.

So, with that in mind, let’s take a look at our schedule and go “by the book” (in terms of Vegas odds) about how we might be expected to fare for the first month of the season:

Game 1:  Auburn.  Loss

Game 2:  USC.  Loss

Game 3.  Southern Utah.  Win

Game 4.  Idaho.  Win

Game 5.  Stanford.   Loss

Of course, upsets can and/or may happen during the course of the first month of the year.  But if we follow “conventional wisdom” for a second, the outcomes above would put as at 2-3 (0-2 in conference) nearing the half-way point of the season—which brings us to game #6:  Our trip to the Bay Area to take on the CAL Berkeley Bears.

If we lose to California in that game, we’d fall to 2-4 overall and 0-3 in league.  Then, in the following weeks, we’d take on what should be an undefeated Oregon State team at home followed by Oregon down in Eugene.  In other words, lose to CAL and, all else being equal, the table is set for a 2-6 (0-5 in conference) mark heading into our game against Arizona State at Halloween.  At that point, we’d need to run the table just to become bowl eligible.

Of course, that’s not a good recipe for success, folks.

In contrast, beat CAL and we move to 3-3 heading into a game against an Oregon State team that I think we can beat.  Win that game, and we’re 4-3 heading into Oregon, needing to win 2 of the final five to play in December.   And THAT is a doable proposition, methinks.

Ultimately, my goal for the season is to have 4 wins going into that Utah home game.  Win that one, and the Apple Cup is for a trip to the New Mexico bowl.  And to me, achieve that benchmark, and I think the season is a success.

But without beating either Auburn or CAL, I don’t see how we get there.  I really don’t.

Anyhow, that’s all the time I’ve got for today.  Feel free to weigh in on what your swing game is for the year as time allows.  I’ll be back Friday with my pick for the season opener. The rest of the fellas will do the same tomorrow.

All for now. Go Cougs!