Saturday night’s showdown between LSU and West Virginia in Morgantown has been circled on a lot of calendars as one of this season’s feature matchups. LSU defeated West Virginia 20-14 a year ago in Baton Rouge in the first game of the home-and-home series, and some may have seen the games as a preview of what might become a regular (interconference) matchup.
The No. 2 ranked Tigers bring a 3-0 record to Mountaineer Stadium, including impressive wins over Oregon and Mississippi State. West Virginia, ranked 16 in the AP Poll, also owns a 3-0 record, including an exciting win last week against Maryland in College Park. Oddsmakers favor LSU to win by 6. The game will receive a fair amount of attention as the setting for Saturday’s broadcast of ESPN’s Gameday, and ABC will carry the game in primetime.
Quarterbacks
LSU’s Jarrett Lee was forced into a starting role when incumbent QB Jordan Jefferson was suspended indefinitely for his part in a preseason brawl. Lee has had success at the helm of the Tiger offense, but his opponent Saturday is quietly having a terrific season. Geno Smith has thrown for 1008 yards and seven TDs against just one INT for WV. His performance to date, and prospect for success in the new Dana Holgorsen offense, have garnered him some dark horse Heisman consideration.
Edge: West Virginia
Running Backs
Michael Ford (218 yards, four TDs) and Spencer Ware (226 yards, 3 TDs) share the load for LSU. Their dependability has eased the forced transition at QB. West Virginia is high on true freshman Andrew Buie (88 yards, 1 TD), but he has not become an integral part of the new offense yet. Vernard Roberts (118 yards, 3 TDs) has outgained him in the first three games.
Edge: LSU
Receivers
West Virginia’s wideouts have been the cause of the team’s early success. Tavon Austin (20 catches, 236 yards, 1 TD), Stedman Bailey (15 catches, 229 yards, 2 TDs) and Ivan McCartney (17 catches, 211 yards, 2 TDs) have proven reliable targets for Geno Smith, and there is more depth behind this trio. LSU’s Rueben Randle (12, catches, 229 yards, 2 TDs) and Odell Beckham (15 catches, 111 yards) have stood apart among receivers, but Russell Sheppard returns this week after a three-game suspension.
Edge: West Virginia
Offensive Line
LSU is one of the most talent-laden teams in the NCAA. Despite losing some key players before the season began, the Tigers have not skipped a beat. LSU’s offense is not explosive, but the win the trench wars regularly. West Virginia’s line is improving, but is learning a new scheme under Dana Holgorsen. The running game has not enjoyed the success of the passing game. That will have to be different this week if the Mountaineers are going to sustain drives.
Edge: LSU
Defense
LSU’s defense is arguably one of the best in the country. With a great balance of talent and experience throughout and methodically wears down opponents with hard hits. The front seven constantly finds penetration into the backfield, snuffing the run and giving the secondary an easier task of pass defense. WV’s defense has not been stifling. It has kept the Mountaineers in games though, rising to the occasion in each game. If LSU can stretch them to the breaking point, this game could get out of hand.
Edge: LSU
Special Teams
Both teams have respectable returners. WSU’s Morris Claiborne has averaged 23 yards on kickoffs while WV’s Tavon Austin has netted 29 yards on kickoffs and 22 yards on punts. Placekickers Drew Alleman (LSU) and Tyler Bitancurt (WV) could play a significant role in this contest.
Edge: West Virginia
Coaches
On most Saturdays, first-year head coach Dana Holgorsen’s reputation and success as an offensive mastermind would give him better standing against an opposing coach of longer tenure. This is not one of those Saturdays. Les Miles has a 65-17 record and a national championship with LSU. He flat-out knows how to win. In a tight game, he’ll find a way to turn things to his advantage.
Edge: LSU
Intangibles
Most of the Big East football programs were spurned last weekend by the defection of Pittsburgh and Syracuse to the ACC. West Virginia was spurned by the SEC as well, when the league office publicly dispelled speculation about the Mountaineers entering the conference. Though the disclosure was not intended as a slight of the WV program, many bloggers and other pundits have enjoyed some teasing jabs at the Mountaineers as a bit too “back woods” for the SEC stage. Now one of the conference’s elite teams is on their turf, WV aims to turn lose both the Hatfields and the McCoys on the Tigers. This is a huge opportunity, under the lights and with a national TV audience, to show themselves worthy.
Edge: West Virginia
Summary
The Mountaineers have their hands full, but as coaches have told players week after week for more than a century: the will to win decides games more often than an abundance of talent. West Virginia will need a balanced attack to have any hope of consistent success on offense. If the Tigers’ defense limits WV’s Geno Smith and company on offense, that places more pressure on Mountaineers defense, which has not been tasked so far this year with having to keep their team in the game. Given the atmosphere of Mountaineer Stadium and LSU’s limitations on offense, I expect an emotional but low scoring and physical game.
Prediction: LSU 20 – WV 17
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