There is a stigma at the top of the NBA draft. A number one overall pick will forever be judged as a superstar or a failure, never in between. You are either Hakeem Olajuwon or Kwame Brown. The number two pick is forever linked with the top pick. LeBron James and Darko Milicic. Mark Aguirre and Isiah Thomas. Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. Anyone in the top ten picks is subject to overwhelming praise for the smallest steps and extreme scorn with things stop going so well.
The last time Portland picked at number ten was 1980, when the team selected Ronnie Lester from Iowa and promptly traded him to Chicago for fourth overall pick Kelvin Ransey in a trade involving first-round picks in the 1981 draft. Ransey showed flashes of brilliance for Portland, finishing second in the Rookie of the Year voting before retiring in 1985 to become a preacher in Mississippi. Lester's career was cut short by multiple injuries. Neither team really got the benefit of a top ten player.
Since then, 22 players have come and gone, and Portland looks to have a surprisingly good spot.
The best pick at number ten with little question was 1998, when the Boston Celtics selected forward Paul Pierce from Kansas. Pierce has been one of the most effective shooters in the last decade and is a borderline Hall of Fame player. In 1987, the Chicago Bulls selected Horace Grant from Clemson, a key piece in the Bulls first three titles. The 1983 selection, Jeff Malone by the Washington Bullets, was a two-time NBA All-Star and averaged 19 points per game over a 13-season NBA career, including a stunning 24.3 points per game in 1990.
Sometimes strange things happen at number ten. In 1991, the Orlando Magic started the odd career of Brian Williams at number ten, selecting the forward out of Arizona. Williams struggled his first three years before exploding with the Los Angeles Clippers in 1995. He won a title with Chicago in the 1996-1997 season, signed a massive contract with the Detroit Pistons, changed his name to Bison Dele, played one more season, and promptly retired in 1999 at age 30. 1990 tenth-pick Rumeal Robinson had a disappointing NBA career with seven NBA teams, and ended up arrested in 2009 for bank bribery and wire fraud.
Sometimes the player had a terrific college career and never got anywhere at the next level. Adam Keefe, selected by Atlanta in 1992, was a college superstar at Stanford in both basketball and volleyball, but only averaged five points and four rebounds a game for his career, mostly with the Utah Jazz. Kurt Thomas (1995 out of TCU by the Miami Heat) was one of only three players in college basketball history to lead Division I in both scoring and rebounding, but has only been a serviceable journeyman in the NBA.
Over the last couple years, the tenth pick has been a gold mine. Indiana star Paul George was selected tenth in 2010. Milwaukee got talented scorer Brandon Jennings in 2009. New Jersey selected Brook Lopez in 2008, who has been a force in the middle for the Nets. While the jury is out for the last two tenth overall picks (Jimmer Fredette and Austin Rivers), Portland looks primed to get the piece they need to return to the top of the Western Conference.
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