Now that Coco Crisp has silenced his critics by playing incredible defense and seemingly hitting better (which isn’t supported by the facts, but he did go on a tear for a bit), the critics have been casting about for a new goat on the Red Sox.
Enter Julio Lugo.
Lugo’s April wasn’t that bad. He hit .256/.346/.344 which wasn’t great, but certainly wasn’t concerning. He was getting on base and scoring runs, 16 of them in 24 games. In addition, he’s continued to show a penchant for Fenway Park, hitting .280/.383/.360 in 50 AB there to date.
And yet his line is at .221/.302/.301 in 112 AB. He’s hitting a terrible .175/.232/.254 on the road, and .087/.120/.130 thus far in May.
He’s come exactly as advertised on defense: his range at shortstop has been pretty darn good, and his hands are a bit erratic.
I think it’s far too early to write Lugo off, especially with his average May and his liking of Fenway Park. To see if there’s any historical precedent for this, I checked out Lugo’s most recent April, May, and June statistical lines. Here we go:
2006
April: 1.000/1.000/1.500 in 2 AB
May: .245/.275/.347
June: .349/.439/.604 (he continued raking in July)
2005
April: .281/.324/.354
May: .259/.308/.361
June: .305/.387/.362 (he raked in July)
2004
April: .328/.375/.522
May: .214/.245/.388
June: .316/.407/.418 (he had a similar July)
I’m seeing a trend here. Are you? He does decent in April, he falls off a cliff in May, and he leads the charge in June and July. I didn’t look past July, so I’m not leaving anything out on purpose, by the way.
Look, Lugo’s been in the majors for eight years now, and he’s only 31. Outside of his 2006 half-season with the Devil Rays, he hasn’t been known for his power (although he hit 41 and 36 doubles in 2004 and 2005, respectively). Lugo’s been known for his very good range, his ability to get on base, and his speed.
As a matter of fact, he’s pacing for 50 SB … and none caught. When’s the last time the Red Sox had a batter steal 50 bases? That would be 1973, when Tommy Harper stole a club record 54, and stole 25 and 28 bags in his two other years in Beantown. Do you know how rare it is for a Red Sox player to burn up the basepaths? Johnny Damon was the last one to hit 30+, which he did in 2002 and 2003. In 2001, Carl Everett led the team… with NINE! Jody Reed led the 1992 team with seven. Otis Nixon stole 42 in 1994, and that was it until Damon’s brief foray into making the Red Sox fast.
Not until last year with Coco Crisp did we feel we had a burner again, and now we have two. Checking out the team pages from 2006-1972 was flatout comical. I never really saw how much we didn’t care about speed until I checked out the team stats. Couple that with Coco Crisp on pace for 31, and we’re seeing speed like never before here in Boston … and wait until Jacoby Ellsbury!
Here’s the bottom line: Julio Lugo’s job is secure. He’s got a four-year deal, he’s historically not going to warm up until June, and we’re 20-10.
The results of the poll over to the right:
Daisuke Matsuzaka now has a 5.45 ERA on the year. Thoughts?
* He’s getting used to the league, give him time. His Cy Young talent will shine eventually.
14% of all votes
* Don’t be worried. It will be lower by the time the season ends, but not Cy worthy.
43% of all votes
* I expect him to be a lot like Beckett was last year, and a lot like Beckett is now in 2008.
28% of all votes
* Hideki Irabu redux!
14% of all votes
I voted for the second option. I was told that I didn’t provide an option that would have him end up as an “average” pitcher, but we still got some good responses. The overwhelming majority things that Dice-K will be just fine by the time the season rounds up.
Better than Roger Clemens? Let’s hope so. Dice-K finished his first month in the bigs with a 3-2 record and 5.45 ERA. He’ll toe the mound Wednesday against Tomo Ohka, who is 2-3 with a 5.50 ERA. Interesting how the two countrymen mirror each other in effectiveness thus far.
Matsuzaka’s first start against the Blue Jays came at the Rogers Centre, where we’re at now. He gave up two runs in six innings, whiffing 10. A repeat performance will go along way towards easing our hearts, as he will have vanquished a team that has seen him already and has Troy Glaus back in the fold.
I would caution everyone not to worry too much about Dice-K. Josh Beckett went through the same thing last year, and look how well he’s doing now. Dice-K has to learn the league. Johan Santana had a 6.49 ERA in his rookie year, starting five games and relieving in 25 for 86.0 IP. Do you see Twins fans groaning over that 6.49 ERA? No? Gee, I wonder why.
Patience.
Buster Olney brought up something interesting yesterday. What cap will Roger wear into the Hall?
It could all but guarantee that Clemens’ Hall of Fame plaque will have a Yankees cap. (Save the e-mails: I know that the Hall of Fame has the final say, but given the strong relationship between Clemens and the Hall, I tend to believe they will go along with whatever his wishes are on this one).
Look, I know I wrote that I felt betrayed by Roger’s decision to come to Boston. But after a day of really sifting through it and trying to figure out why Roger loves New York so much and why he would choose a Yankees hat, I’ve come to this conclusion.
It doesn’t matter that the Red Sox have a new manager, general manager and owner. It doesn’t matter that the culture of the Red Sox is completely different than in those halycon days. What matters is that Roger felt cheated by the Red Sox never giving him what he wanted. Yes, he wanted all the money. Yes, he said he wanted to go to Texas and ended up in Toronto. He followed the money, but why couldn’t that money come from Boston? And then the general manager of the Red Sox questioned his ability? Was Roger saving the world at the time? No, but that must not have been pleasant to hear.
Those words turned him into an amazing pitcher again, the pitcher he was in the late 80s and early 90s. He spent two years in Toronto, then forced his way to the Yankees. Why? He had the money, now he wanted the ring. He grabbed his two rings and went home for three years.
Now he’s back. He’s back for another ring, the one he couldn’t get in Houston. He’s back for the astounding $28 million, the money THE YANKEES GAVE HIM. The money that showed the team’s commitment to him. The money the Red Sox refused to pony up when he left after 1996. He joined a team with players that were still around from his last go-round. People he liked and respected: Joe Torre. Derek Jeter. Andy Pettitte.
So you tell me: Why would Roger Clemens not feel the most attachment to the team that got him his World Series rings, where his most respected and loved friends are, and where the team shows him the commitment of spending the money to get him?
I may have not understood it yesterday, but I understand it now. Roger is not a traitor. He’s not a schmuck. He’s going where he should always go: the place with a winning culture, friends, and a team that respects him … and has never, not once, no matter how many general managers ago, disrespected him. Tell me if you agree or disagree in the new poll to the right.
I understand, Roger Clemens.
But I still want us to beat your brains out.
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