Just two more sleeps, as Harry from Canada would say, and we're drafting Round 1 live from New York City….
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Draft talk surrounding the Eagles has hit the crazy noise level. Sal Paolantonio of ESPN has even put it out there today that the Eagles are considering acquiring WVU receiver Tavon Auston (5-8, 175, 4.3 '40) with their first round pick…either at #4, or by leveraging #4 into a #12 or lower…
That's just crazy. I love the idea of Tavon Austin in a "Double Peanut" formation, but I was just being silly when I said it. I hope Sal Pal didn't take me seriously.
I don't think it's going to be a crazy or exotic surprise kind of draft for the Eagles. GM Howie Roseman has come around to the pick-the-best-player-available philosophy of drafting. So look for an offensive lineman, a defensive lineman, a cornerback and a safety to be among the team’s early picks.
“What they’re looking for, at least what I think they’re looking for, you can get in this draft,” one NFL personnel man said. “This is a pretty good year on both lines and in the secondary.” [Quote source: Mark Eckel, Newark Times].
There's been a lot of talk here about the trade value of that #4 pick in the 1st Round.
Brozer had some nice comments about trade value. If I read Broz correctly, he thinks trading a #4 back to a #12 in the 1st should get you an extra pick in the second round…at #12.
That equation seems in line with the Jimmy Johnson Draft Value Chart, which has been around for 20 years now…It's been altered on a team-by-team basis to better account for rule changes and individual beliefs, but it's still around.
Jordan Raanan of NJ.Live and NJ.com has inside knowledge of the Eagles Draft Value Chart.
So what is the Eagles' No. 4 pick worth? The traditional chart says the fourth-overall pick in the NFL Draft is worth 1,800 points. That's the equivalent of the overall 12th (1,200 points) and 31st (600 points) selections.
It's highly doubtful the Eagles can get two first-rounders for No. 4 right now. The Eagles may want to make a bunch of moves happen from the existing power of the 4th overall pick.
That means moving up or down. The chart says up would be costly.
" Say the Eagles wanted Dion Jordan, who played for new coach Chip Kelly at Oregon, really badly and needed to trade with the Jaguars at No. 2 in order to land him. According to the chart, it would cost the Eagles the No. 4 pick, their second-round pick (No. 35) and their third-round pick (No. 67). Mark it down, that is not going to happen."
Somewhere along the line the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart has lost touch with reality. There is no way the San Diego Chargers, at #11 overall, no matter how desperate they are for an offensive tackle, are going to trade their first, second and fourth-round picks for the Eagles' No. 4 selection. That's what the chart says that pick should be worth.
More likely the Chargers would trade the No. 11 overall selection and some mid-to-late round picks to jump to No. 4.
What seems to be happening is, due to the new NFLPA agreement, the value of the top picks in the Draft has actually decreased due to a rookie pay scale now in place. Ironically, the value of later round picks has actually increased— since those earlier round picks are no longer the cash-sapping liabilities they used to be.
So if the Eagles do trade out of that #4 spot, as Broz says, it's likely to be for another1st-rounder— and an extra second-rounder—or a bunch of mid-to-late round picks thrown in.
Updates to follow….
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