Not since the storied 1976-77 NBA championship season has a Portland Trail Blazers team outperformed expectations to such a staggering degree as they did this year. With preseason expectations planted firmly in the basement of the Western Conference, no one could have foretold this season’s Cinderella-esque run into the second round of the playoffs, before gamely falling to an all-time great Warriors team in maybe the closest 4-1 series loss in league history.
Of course, as fun as that improbable run was to watch, both players and fans know that there’s a long way to go to get from plucky-second-round team to the confetti, parades and immortality of that 1977 squad that serves as the ultimate goal for every Trail Blazer team. And, given such an electrifying playoff performance to end the year by these precocious young Blazers, they won’t have the benefit of low expectations heading into next season.
Playing with expectations will present a whole new challenge for a team that thrived in their underdog role so much this past season. But, considering the way this gutsy Blazers team continuously stepped their game up with each new challenge presented to them, I’m not so sure how smart it would be to doubt Damian Lillard and Co. This team truly encapsulated the fiery-yet-stoic, never-say-die demeanor of their fearless leader as they served notice to the NBA that they are a team to be reckoned with for years to come.
At the same time, the history of this league is littered with should-have-beens who couldn’t catch up to their suddenly outsized expectations. The hardest jump to make, by far, is from a good team to a true championship contender. And, while this team is among the youngest in the NBA and thrived due in large part to tremendous team chemistry, internal improvement isn’t likely to be enough to get to that next level. They are almost certainly going to need to spend their significant salary cap room on more than just retaining their own players, they’re going to have to bring in another top tier talent or two if they expect to advance to the Western Conference Finals and beyond.
And that’s where things get tricky. As great as this season was, the marked over-performance by just about everyone on the roster somewhat complicates General Manager Neil Olshey’s off-season tasks. Sure, it’s the good kind of complication, but, it’s a complication nonetheless.
That’s because, suddenly, outside of veteran center Chris Kaman, there aren’t any players who are overtly expendable. Just about everyone contributed in some meaningful way, so much so that it’s hard to imagine the same level of success being achieved without any of the core of this year’s team.
On top of that, many of their free agents (most notably, Allen Crabbe and Maurice Harkless) played so well down the stretch that they likely increased their value around the league to a point where it may be tough for the Blazers to keep them all. Now, having too many quality guys is an enviable problem to have, but, it also means that Olshey will likely be forced to make some tough decisions during free agency.
Do they cash in some of their newly valuable chips in a trade to try to net another all-star caliber player to play alongside Lillard and CJ McCollum?
Do they let most (or all) of their free agents go in hopes of scoring big in free agency?
Or, do they aim to bring back the whole squad, and just try to fill in the blanks (defensive-minded big man, 3 and D wing, backup point guard) in the bargain bin, Moneyball-style?
There are excellent arguments to be made for and against each potential path. And, with Lillard’s max contract extension about to kick in, and CJ McCollum’s big pay day not too far behind, this could be the last summer where the Blazers have the kind of salary flexibility to make wholesale changes and infuse this team with major talent.
At the same time, teams like the Warriors and Spurs have consistently shown the benefit of building an identity and winning culture, and that team play often trumps overall talent. This year’s Blazer team starting showing flashes of that type of play in the second half of the season and during their playoff run. Clearly, this team was greater than the sum of their parts, and that’s an important thing to consider in all this.
That’s why, no matter what direction Neil Olshey and the Blazer brass decide to go this offseason, they need to strongly consider the culture that Lillard, McCollum and Head Coach Terry Stotts are building and do what they can to bring in players that don’t just embrace, but enhance that culture. If there are some marquee guys that they think will seamlessly fit in, all the better. But, if not, they can’t be afraid to spurn the bigger names if that big name might have the potential to break up this good thing the Blazers have going right now.
After a truly remarkable season, the coming months are going to lay the groundwork for the next era of Blazer basketball. Everybody and their mother is going to have an opinion on what moves need to be made to get to that next level, and, make no mistake about it, there will be options a-plenty. Luckily for Blazer fans, the man in charge, Neil Olshey, has so far shown a deft touch at finding the right players to fill roster holes ever since he’s arrived in Portland.
If he can do so again this offseason, we may be looking at the next great incarnation of the Portland Trail Blazers. If he swings big and misses, we could be looking at that full rebuild sooner than later. That’s a wide spectrum to navigate and the decisions made could have lasting effects on this organization, for better or worse, for years to come.
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