Major League Soccer Playoffs Prediction: Knockout Round

It’s that time of year again, Major League Soccer Playoffs! For those of you who don’t know how the MLS Playoffs work or root for European teams that don’t play in the playoffs, here is a brief summary of how they work:

Five teams from both the Eastern and Western Conferences make the playoffs. The fourth and fifth seeded teams in each conference play a one game knockout at the higher seed’s home field. The winner of the knockout game goes on to play the top-seeded team in their respective conference in the Conference semifinals, while the second and third seeded teams also play.

The Conference semifinals and finals are both two games. Each team gets to play at home once, with the higher seeded team being home for the second game. The winner of the two game series will be based off the aggregate score or the combined score from both games. If the two teams are tied after both games, then the number of road goals scored is the tiebreaker. If the teams are still tied, then they will go to extra time and eventually penalty kicks. The winners from the Conference Finals go on to compete in the MLS Cup Final, which takes place at the home field of the remaining team with the best regular season record. This is a single game, winner-takes-all. If the teams are tied after regulation, they will go to extra time and then penalty kicks.

Now that you’re an MLS Playoff expert, let’s look at the two knockout round games.

Vancouver Whitecaps at FC Dallas

The Whitecaps have been one of the hottest teams in MLS as of late, winning four of their last five games. Pedro Morales is the playmaker for this team, leading the Whitecaps in goals, assists, shots, and shots on goal. Overall however, the Whitecap offense struggled, only scoring 42 goals on the season. The Whitecaps’ defense has been the key this season, allowing only 40 goals, good for fourth in MLS. What Morales is to the Whitecaps, Blas Perez has been for FC Dallas. Perez leads the team in both goals and assists. Dallas has scored 55 goals and conceded 45. The team also has a +11 goal differential at home, which is where they will be Wednesday night. In their last two meetings, the home team won each game, so these teams are pretty evenly split. I think the Whitecap defense, which is only allowing 1.2 goals-per-game on the road this season will be the difference maker. I’ll be riding the hot team that hasn’t lost a game since Sept. 20.

Prediction: FC Dallas 0 Vancouver Whitecaps 1

Sporting Kansas City at New York Red Bulls

This matchup will be getting most of the publicity, featuring last season’s MLS Cup Champions and winners of the Supporters’ Shield. The defending-champion Sporting Kansas City have only one win in their last five games and are riding a two game losing streak into the playoffs. Although they would prefer to be at home, KC was one of the best road teams this season, posting the best away goal differential and scoring just two goals fewer on the road than at home. Dom Dwyer will need to get on the scoring sheet if KC wants to keep up with the Red Bulls. New York’s Bradley Wright-Phillips tied the single-season record for goals scored (27) to lead an offense that scored 69 percent of its goals at home, ranking second in the league. Thierry Henry also added 10 goals and could be competing in a Red Bull uniform for the last time. The Red Bulls have won three of their last four games coming into the playoffs. Once again, I’m going to stick with the hotter team for the knockout stage.

Prediction: New York Red Bulls 3 Sporting Kansas City 1