Making Sense of Ivan Nova’s Recent Struggles

After several truly incredible starts with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Ivan Nova has struggled in his last two starts. Here is why.

Ivan Nova lit the pitcher’s mound on fire almost immediately since joining the Pittsburgh Pirates.

In his first eight starts with Pittsburgh, Nova showed incredibly refined control, with 43 strikeouts against just three walks. We have previously identified that this success is due chiefly to having a better First Strike percentage since joining the Pirates, and those early successes in at-bats propelled him into high quality starts.

In his last two starts, Nova has failed to pitch more than four innings, allowing seven earned runs and 18 hits between the two starts, totaling seven innings. Although the control is still there – the right hander did not walk a batter in that stretch – the sudden drop in effectiveness is disconcerting, doubly so in light of the recent extension talks between Nova and the Pirates’ brass.

What can be made of this “mini-slump” and should it give the club pause in hotly pursuing that extension?

A Developing Book on Nova’s First Pitch

Since becoming a Pirate, Ivan Nova has thrown his sinking fastball 54.5 percent of the time on first pitch. In his September 18 start – one in which he lasted just three innings, giving up 10 hits – he threw the sinker 10 times out of 19 first pitch opportunities. Only one landed for a strike. The pitch was offered at 50 percent of the time.

Contrast this against his Pirates numbers to date, and it may be clear that teams are now locking in on Nova’s tendencies.

[perfectpullquote align=”full” cite=”” link=”” color=”#000000″ class=”” size=””]Nova has always been hittable.[/perfectpullquote]

In his Pirates starts prior to September 18, Nova’s sinker landed for a strike 39.45 percent of the time. That is not an overwhelming figure, but coupled with his other first pitch offerings – notably a curveball that had a near-46 percent strike rate – it was very effective.

Full Pitch F/X data for yesterday’s start is not yet available, but initial data tells us that it was much the same as September 18.

Teams are quickly writing a book on Ivan Nova, and it will be interesting to see how he and pitching coach Ray Searage can mix it up to get back to keeping opposing hitters off balance.

Lack Of Deception?

Ivan Nova’s first pitch tendencies aren’t the only aspects of his game that have stayed static. If we look at Nova’s plate discipline tendencies, we can see that things are changing yet strikingly the same.

Prior to September 18, Nova’s O-Swing – percentage of pitches outside the zone that hitters offer at – clocked at 36.4 percent. When compared to the National League average of 29.4 percent, the initial takeaway is that Nova is getting more hitters to chase. While that is an easy conclusion, it isn’t exactly relevant.

That is, until you take in O-Contact – the percentage of contact that hitters make on those pitches outside the zone. Prior to the 18th, Nova’s O-Contract rate came in at 59.7 percent, well below the NL average of 63.6. However, over his last two starts, hitters are getting to Nova’s outside stuff, to the tune of a 65.2 percent clip.

[perfectpullquote align=”right” cite=”” link=”” color=”#000000″ class=”” size=””]It may be clear that teams are now locking in on Nova’s tendencies.[/perfectpullquote]

While never a high-strikeout pitcher over his career- though he has had some high strikeout performances with the Pittsburgh Pirates – it is important that Nova uses the outside of the zone effectively. Without the ability to fool hitters with stuff on the outside, Nova is forced to come into the zone more often, and that often spells trouble.

Perhaps it spells trouble for any pitcher, but Nova has always been hittable. in 2016 alone, the NL average hard-hit rate (pitches on which “hard” contact was made, as per FanGraphs) is 31.5 percent.

Pre-September 18th Nova had a 31.8 percent hard-hit rate. In his previous two starts, that figure has ballooned to 41.7.

Being forced to pitch back into the zone spells harder hits for Nova. While he has good stuff, his is not dominant enough to live and die by the strike zone proper.

What Does This Mean For A Possible Extension?

The Pittsburgh Pirates are likely unfazed by Ivan Nova’s recent struggle, as it pertains to their pursuit of his services. The control is still there – again, Nova did not walk a batter over his last two starts – and the nuances that we’ve listed above seem to be easily corrected. It is entirely reasonable to expect that Nova can work through these issues.

While Nova may not be able to sustain the level of dominance that marked his first eight starts with the Pittsburgh Pirates, he will likely not regress back to his pre-Pirates struggles. He will remain a highly effective veteran starting pitcher, and the Pirates should continue to pursue him as such.

Photo Credit – MLB.com