Managers do matter

I have long been of the opinion that managers aren’t as important to a team’s fortunes as their general managers. At the point that players reach the major leagues, there is less development that managers can help with and more in game strategy to deal with, while the GM has assembled the talent and the minor league staff that aids in most of the young player development. Still, noted statistician Nate Silver was interviewed in ESPN the Magazine’s latest issue and added another dimension to the utility of managers:

Statheads have to be careful when they say that managers don’t matter. You can quantify the effect of strategic decisions and they’re pretty marginal. But if you can get guys to play toward the higher end of their performance curve because they’re more motivated or better rested or whatever else, that would be hard to evaluate. But that doesn’t mean that necessarily doesn’t exist at all.

This is what I have been saying the entirety of Gardenhire’s tenure, but I never said it as clearly. The failures of the last two seasons and the success of the seasons prior can’t be pinned entirely on Gardenhire. The past two seasons were stricken by injury and misfortune, poor roster decisions and more generally, a lack of talent. In the 2000s, the Twins were only truly challenged one year: 2006 was the only season more than one team in the AL Central won more than 90 games. The Twins won their division so many times in large part because the rest of the AL Central was so bad, and Terry Ryan had established such a quality roster.

For me, the real signal of Gardenhire’s managerial ability has been his success in the playoffs. To me, the fact that the team has historically played a different game in the post season (relying on more on “small ball” principles than in the regular season, earlier and more often) and has often showed up flat (0-12, now) indicates that his players are unable to “play towards the higher end of their performance curve because they’re motivated”. Many have rallied against his bullpen usage as well, which would indicate whether or not his players have had appropriate rest.

It sounds like the Twins will be replacing Gardenhire at season’s end, if reports are to be believed. He will be able to find work elsewhere in the league, and he probably deserves it, but I think he will want to stay with the Twins organization a la Tom Kelly. When the team looks for his replacement, it’s important to remember, for both fans and stat geeks: managers DO matter. Even if the stats don’t show it