Marc Methot Sets His Price — 6 years at $5.5 million

With the Senators encouraging fans to sit tight and be patient, apparently they’re heeding their own advice when it comes to negotiating contract extensions for impending 2015 free agents Marc Methot and Bobby Ryan.

After talks had reportedly cooled between the Senators and Methot’s representative Larry Kelly, Bryan Murray changed things up by speaking with local reporters this morning and revealing the terms that Methot’s asking for in the contract negotiations.

Methot camp is seeking 6 years at $5.5M. Sens are balking.

— Wayne Scanlan (@HockeyScanner) September 10, 2014

//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

First thing is first, I certainly can’t blame Methot for asking for that kind of cash. Regardless of whether the Senators balk at those terms or not, that’s the kind of contract that he should easily be able to fetch on the open market.

By leaking the terms, the Senators are massaging the public similarly to how they brought up the issues pertaining to leadership at the conclusion of the 2013/14 season as one contributing factor to their dismal season before it became widely known that Jason Spezza was seeking a change of scenery. Through their efforts, the organization warmed fans up to the inevitability of a trade without triggering much in the way of backlash — Spezza Rally notwithstanding.

Similarly here, by leaking the terms of Methot’s ask, Senators brass is essentially telling its fan base, “Look, even though he’s a defensive defenceman, Methot’s going to get paid handsomely even if he gets slightly less in terms of an average annual value or term.” And if Methot comes off these numbers, management can turn around and point to the fact that they locked him up to less than what he was originally asking for.

Whether Methot is worth the term and chunk of change is almost immaterial. As much as I loathe the idea of giving a 29-year old defensive defenceman those kinds of years and term, they are the kinds of figures that he’ll assuredly get on the open market come July 1st simply because he plays top four minutes. Last season he averaged 21:45 of ice time per game, Methot had the 56^th highest average ice time in the NHL amongst defencemen.

Historically speaking, Methot’s never been a big point producer. The six goals and 23 points that he put up last season were both career highs. He does not play much on the power play – he averaged 0:34 there last season — but these numbers are most likely attributable to the fact that he spends the majority of his minutes making d-to-d passes with the greatest even strength point producing defenceman in the NHL.

Now with that being said, Erik Karlsson and Methot have been fine together as a pairing, but in case you forgot about Filip Kuba, Karlsson usually makes everyone around him better. That’s what elite players do. Looking at Methot’s with or without you numbers, Methot’s body of work isn’t THAT impressive.

Here is what Methot and Karlsson have done together:

Here is Methot’s body of work away from Karlsson:

And for reference sake, here are Karlsson’s numbers when away from Methot:

The problem with the Methot negotiations is that the Senators would have more leverage if they had more confidence in players like Patrick Wiercioch, Jared Cowen and the combination of Chris Phillips and Mark Borowiecki.

It doesn’t help matters that Jared Cowen completely shat the bed last season. Granted, out of fairness to the player, he was coming off a major, major hip injury that required surgery. Unfortunately for the Senators, while Cowen physically looked fine on the ice in terms of his skating and ability to move, his decision-making and mental mistakes were something out of the Senators’ inaugural 1992/93 season playbook. It was like he was channelling his inner Chris Luongo. It was absolutely excruciating to watch on a regular basis.

Now maybe that’s something that can be attributed to the rust he accumulated from being away from the game for the better part of a year or maybe it’s something you could also partially pin on a lack of confidence in himself and his health. Or like other young players before him, it’s possible that he just won’t fulfil the potential scouts dreamed because of his physical tools or worse, perhaps that ceiling is lowered even further now because of the injuries that he’s suffered over the years.

If Cowen can turn around his career and play at a higher level, it would take a ton of pressure off of the Senators. Unfortunately, there’s simply no guarantee that that will happen any time soon. Should the Senators play hard ball with Methot and lose him for nothing on the open market and Cowen’s game continue to suffer, it would be devastating and put a ton of pressure on the organization to find a suitable replacement.

Now that’s not to say that they can’t find a suitable replacement internally or externally, but this Methot situation could simply be a case of the bird in the hand is better than two in the bush.